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My latest Kitco commentary: Oil, Copper & Gold – All in the Family (01/22/2013)
Friday's closing prices...
COMEX Gold price = $1,687.0/oz (February contract most active)
COMEX Silver = $31.932/oz (March)
COMEX Copper = $3.6790/lb (March)
NYMEX WTI crude = $95.94/bbl (March)
ICE Brent crude = $111.89/bbl (March)
Eureka Miner’s Gold Value Index© (GVI) = 94.39 (gold value is elevated but falling with respect to key commodities oil, copper and silver)
Value Adjusted Gold Price© (VAGP) = $1,493.4/oz
COMEX - VAGP = $193.6/oz; gold is trading at a decreasing premium to key commodities.
Gold prices gained some momentum this week and should head higher next week as I explain in my weekly Kitco Gold Survey input (see below) and latest commentary, Oil, Copper & Gold – All in the Family.
It's a short report this morning as the ole Colonel is still trying to thaw out from our subzero cold snap. I keep an ice cooler in an enclosed breezeway between the house and workshop to keep my beer from freezing. That works but the other night I opened the cooler and the hinges shattered like glass - that's cold, pardner.
Molybdenum spot prices are a thin flat washer below the $12 per pound level which is encouraging but not much changed from last week. Here are the latest numbers compliments of Thompson Creek Metals (TC):
Metals Week Daily Average:
As of January 11, 2013
Ryan's Notes Average:
As of January 18, 2013
(updated twice weekly)
The London Metal Exchange (LME) futures contracts have crested $12 per pound but have also seen little change this week:
3-month seller's contract $26,500 per metric ton ($12.02 per pound)
15-month seller's contract $27,220 per metric ton ($12.35 per pound)
General Moly (GMO) stock closed the week at $4.05 per share.
Enjoy another cup of Raine's delicious Red Label TGIF and have a great holiday weekend.
The Colonel's Gold, Silver & Copper Prices for Next Week
Here is my input to the weekly Kitco Gold Survey:
- My gold target price of $1,705 per ounce follows a recent upward trend which should break the psychologically important $1,700 per ounce level.
- Given the target gold price, the silver price ranges are derived from the 1-month gold ratio mean (GSR) and its respective ratio stability (CRS©). A similar technique was used to predict the price range for copper.
- My Gold Value Index© (GVI) equals 94.55 or 8.8% below the 2012 high of 103.73. Today gold value is below its 1-month moving average of 96.07; a value of 100 represents a historically high-value of gold relative to key commodities oil, copper and silver.
- The gold-to-copper ratio today is 457.98 pounds per ounce and below its 3-month moving average of 473.63 and 6+year trend of 485.93. Falling below the long-term trend line is a bullish indication for the red metal; trending above 500 pounds per ounce, bearish (Ref 3). The 1-month gold-to-copper ratio stability is a very low 1.43%. The 1-month rolling correlation is +0.43; 3-month is -0.41. 3-month relative volatility is 1.54X gold and price sensitivity (beta) is -0.63
- The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) is above its historical norm at 52.803; the 3-month rolling correlation is +0.88, relative volatility is 2.39X gold and price sensitivity (beta) is +2.11. The GSR is below its 3-month average of 53.2; the 1-month gold-to-silver ratio stability is a very low 1.61%.
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