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My latest Kitco commentary: Oil, Copper & Gold – All in the Family (01/22/2013)
Friday's morning prices...
COMEX Gold price = $1,656.0/oz (February contract most active)
COMEX Silver = $31.465/oz (March)
COMEX Copper = $3.6650/lb (March)
NYMEX WTI crude = $96.41/bbl (March)
ICE Brent crude = $113.69/bbl (March)
Eureka Miner’s Gold Value Index© (GVI) = 92.93 (gold value is elevated but falling with respect to key commodities oil, copper and silver)
Value Adjusted Gold Price© (VAGP) = $1,489.0/oz
COMEX - VAGP = $167.0/oz; gold is trading at a decreasing premium to key commodities.
Gold prices stumbled this week as the yellow metal steadily loses its safe-haven allure with respect to currencies as I explain in the Kitco Gold Survey input (see below). There are also is a loss of premium with respect to two key global commodities which you can read about in my latest Kitco commentary, Oil, Copper & Gold – All in the Family.
Not a dazzling week for the metals and miners but most global equity markets continue to be on a tear with Japan's Nikkei showing 11-weeks of gains and longest winning streak since 1977. The S&P 500 is also at pre-recession levels not seen since late 2007 (presently 1,497.47 breaching the 1,500-level twice this week).
Molybdenum spot prices are slightly lower than last week but still close to the $12 per pound level which is OK but the futures market is throwing up some warning flares. Here are the latest numbers compliments of Thompson Creek Metals (TC):
Metals Week Weekly Average:
As of January 18, 2013
Ryan's Notes Average:
As of January 22, 2013
(updated twice weekly)
The London Metal Exchange (LME) futures contracts fell below $12 per pound and are now near or below spot prices which is rarely a good sign:
3-month seller's contract $25,500 per metric ton ($11.57 per pound)
15-month seller's contract $26,210 per metric ton ($11.89 per pound)
General Moly (GMO) stock is trading at $4.81 per share, nearly 6% lower than last Friday's close. Moly benchmark miner Thompson Creek (TC) is roughly flat for the week.
Enjoy another cup of Raine's delicious Red Label TGIF and have a great holiday weekend.
The Colonel's Gold, Silver & Copper Prices for Next Week
Kitco Gold Survey:
- My gold target price of $1,660 per ounce is near the geometric mean of the January highs and lows
- Given the target gold price, the silver price ranges are derived from the 1-month gold ratio mean (GSR) and its respective ratio stability (CRS©). A similar technique was used to predict the price range for copper.
- My Gold Value Index© (GVI) equals 92.93 or 10.4% below the 2012 high of 103.73. Today gold value is below its 1-month moving average of 95.34; a value of 100 represents a historically high-value of gold relative to key commodities oil, copper and silver.
- The gold-to-copper ratio today is 451.84 pounds per ounce and below its 3-month moving average of 472.45 and 6-1/2 year trend of 485.92. Falling below the long-term trend line is a bullish indication for the red metal; trending above 500 pounds per ounce, bearish (Ref 3). The 1-month gold-to-copper ratio stability is a very low 1.31%. The 1-month rolling correlation is +0.33; 3-month is -0.44. 3-month relative volatility is 1.56X gold and price sensitivity (beta) is -0.69
- The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) is above its historical norm at 52.630; the 3-month rolling correlation is +0.87, relative volatility is 2.36X gold and price sensitivity (beta) is +2.06. The GSR is below its 3-month average of 53.17; the 1-month gold-to-silver ratio stability is a low 1.93%.
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