* the euro & yen 1-month volatilites are 0.67% & 0.69% respectively; Comex gold 1-month volatility is 0.81%.
Weekly Summary for November 3, 2017 AM
Gold has gained ground on the embattled euro and yen. Post-election, gold in euro and yen terms is up and safely above 2013 lows (chart below). It was worrisome that gold in euro terms broke below uptrend support March 9 and then again after French elections (i.e. defeat of Le Pen), and headed lower on the prospects of the ECB taking a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. It had a nice rally following President Trump's "fire and fury" comments with an established a trend higher since early-July. The ECB's "lower for longer" approach to quantitative easing has returned some mojo to the gold-in-euro uptrend.
Gold in yen has mostly trended higher since the U.S. election. The Bank of Japan announcement that their accommodative monetary policy is unchanged supports this uptrend.
Gold ratios relative to copper and oil at historically less extreme levels which proves a healthy sign. However, gold valuations relative to copper are again in decline posting a new low for the year of 401 pounds per ounce on October 18th and again on the 25th. Falling below 400 is bearish for gold.
Political and geopolitical events together with concerns about the timing and efficacy of the new administration's policies have restored glitter to gold in 2017. A fall below $1,260 is bearish; below $1,230, very bearish. A rise above $1,300 is bullish; above $1,362, very bullish.
(please do your own research, markets can turn on you faster than a feral cat!)
* My pre-election October range for gold price was $1,240 to $1,320 per ounce, Winter 2016 Edition of the Mining Quarterly:
Storms Never Last: Positive News for Gold, Oil & Copper
Here's a chart to watch for 2017. Click on the image for a larger size:
Colonel Possum & Mariana