* by comparison the euro & yen 1-month volatilites are 0.44% & 1.15% respectively; Comex gold 1-month volatility is 1.37%.
Weekly Summary for September 22, 2017 AM (something new!)
Gold started the year nicely and should remain in my latest revised range of $1,200 to $1,400 per ounce*. Average gold price for 2017 is now expected to print above $1,300 per ounce with a chance to see $1,400 given an adverse outcome for President Trump's agenda, the initial financial impact of super storms Harvey, Irma and Maria, or geopolitical shocks (e.g., North Korea, Syria).
Gold has gained ground on the embattled euro and yen. Post-election, gold in euro and yen terms is up and safely above 2013 lows (chart below). It was worrisome that gold in euro terms broke below uptrend support March 9 and then again after French elections (i.e. defeat of Le Pen), and headed lower on the prospects of the ECB taking a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. It had a nice rally following President Trump's "fire and fury" comments with an established trend higher. It is presently testing that trend line as shown in the chart.
Gold in yen has mostly trended higher since the U.S. election.
An important gold ratio to watch is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP (see "Chart to Watch" below).
Gold ratios relative to copper and oil are stabilizing near historically less extreme levels which proves a healthy sign. Gold valuations relative to copper are elevated and recovering from a recent descent lower.
Political and geo-political events together with concerns about the timing and efficacy of the new administration's policies have restored glitter to gold in 2017. A fall below $1,230 is very bearish; above $1,300, bullish; above $1.362, very bullish.
Gold below $1,285 per ounce-level is a tempting "buy."
(please do your own research, markets can turn on you faster than a feral cat!)
* My pre-election October range for gold price was $1,240 to $1,320 per ounce, Winter 2016 Edition of the Mining Quarterly:
Storms Never Last: Positive News for Gold, Oil & Copper
Here's a chart to watch for 2017. Click on the image for a larger size:
Colonel Possum & Mariana