* the euro & yen 1-month volatilites are 0.42% & 36% respectively; Comex gold 1-month volatility is elevated again at 2.68%.
McEwen Gold Bar Close to ROD
McEwen Ming just released their Q3 2017 results and a Record of Decision (ROD) on the Gold Bar Project is expected in early November - great news for Eureka!
McEwen Mining Reports Q3 2017 Production Results (Press Release 10/18/2017)
According to the report:
The Gold Bar Project has achieved a major milestone in the permitting process with the publication by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of the Notice of Availability of the Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) in the Federal Register. Following a regulated review period, a signed Record of Decision will be published, signifying the completion of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process. The Record of Decision is expected in early November this year and development of Gold Bar is planned to begin upon receipt, in line with our earlier estimates. Gold Bar is expected to contribute an average of 65,000 ounces to our annual gold production beginning in 2019.
McEwen Mining (MUX) is presently trading at $2.045 per share.
Weekly Summary for October 20, 2017 AM
Gold started the year nicely and should remain in my latest revised range of $1,200 to $1,400 per ounce*. Average gold price for 2017 is now expected to print above $1,250 per ounce with a chance to see $1,400 given an adverse outcome for President Trump's Tax Reform Plan, the initial financial impact of super storms Harvey, Irma and Maria, or geopolitical shocks (e.g., Iran, North Korea, Syria).
Gold has gained ground on the embattled euro and yen. Post-election, gold in euro and yen terms is up and safely above 2013 lows (chart below). It was worrisome that gold in euro terms broke below uptrend support March 9 and then again after French elections (i.e. defeat of Le Pen), and headed lower on the prospects of the ECB taking a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. It had a nice rally following President Trump's "fire and fury" comments with an established trend higher since early-July.
Gold in yen has mostly trended higher since the U.S. election.
An important gold ratio to watch is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP (see "Chart to Watch" below).
Gold ratios relative to copper and oil at historically less extreme levels which proves a healthy sign. However, gold valuations relative to copper are again in decline posting a new low for the year of 401 pounds per ounce on October 18. Falling below 400 is bearish for gold.
Political and geo-political events together with concerns about the timing and efficacy of the new administration's policies have restored glitter to gold in 2017. A fall below $1,260 is bearish; below $1,230, very bearish. A rise above $1,300 is bullish; above $1,362, very bullish.
My target price for next week is the border of scary at $1,260 per ounce.
(please do your own research, markets can turn on you faster than a feral cat!)
* My pre-election October range for gold price was $1,240 to $1,320 per ounce, Winter 2016 Edition of the Mining Quarterly:
Storms Never Last: Positive News for Gold, Oil & Copper
Here's a chart to watch for 2017. Click on the image for a larger size:
Colonel Possum & Mariana