A natural terror...
* by comparison the euro & yen 1-month volatilites are 1.45% & 1.42% respectively; Comex gold 1-month volatility is an elevated 2.22%.
Weekly Summary for August 25, 2017 AM (something new!)
Summer 2017 Mining Quarterly
Suzanne Featherston is the new editor of the Mining Quarterly - the best to Suzanne!]
Marianne Kobak McKown has done an excellent job again bringing a new Mining Quaterly in time for summer. It has a new size format with glossy pages that really make images pop! There are great stories and updates on Goldstrike/Cortez, Florida Canyon, RheoMinerals, Newmont and McEwen Mining's Gold Bar Project north of Eureka.
Veteran Adella Harding has several columns on the rise in Nevada gold production and mining claims as well as new exploration. My column on commodity prices also discusses good news on mining employment nationally and updates from Barrick and Newmont locally:
Bottoms Up! (6/8/2017, Elko Daily Free Press)
Online Edition (pages 77-80): Summer 2017 Mining Quarterly
Hats off to Marianne, Adella and crew!
Gold Price Outlook: Second-Half 2017
Gold started the year nicely and should remain in my latest revised range of $1,200 to $1,400 per ounce*. Average gold price for 2017 is expected to print above $1,200 per ounce with an outside chance to see $1,400 given an adverse outcome for the upcoming debt limit debate, President Trump's agenda or geopolitical shocks (e.g., North Korea, Syria).
Gold has gained ground on the embattled euro and yen. Post-election, gold in euro and yen terms is up and safely above 2013 lows (chart below). It was worrisome that gold in euro terms broke below uptrend support March 9 and then again after French elections (i.e. defeat of Le Pen), and headed lower on the prospects of the ECB taking a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. It had a nice rally following President Trump's "fire and fury" comments but has recently stalled. Gold in yen has mostly trended higher since the U.S. election.
An important gold ratio to watch is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP (see "Chart to Watch" below).
Gold ratios relative to copper and oil are stabilizing near historically less extreme levels which proves a healthy sign. Gold valuations relative to copper are elevated but falling.
Political and geo-political events together with concerns about the timing and efficacy of the new administration's policies have restored glitter to gold in 2017. A fall below $1,230 is very bearish; prices above $1,260, bullish; above $1,300, very bullish.
Gold below $1,200 per ounce-level is a tempting "buy."
(please do your own research, markets can turn on you faster than a feral cat!)
* My pre-election October range for gold price was $1,240 to $1,320 per ounce, Winter 2016 Edition of the Mining Quarterly:
Storms Never Last: Positive News for Gold, Oil & Copper
Here's a chart to watch for 2017. Click on the image for a larger size:
Colonel Possum & Mariana