tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4319958594487301872024-03-12T21:59:32.656-07:00The Eureka MinerA morning report on equity and commodity markets tailored for mining interests in Eureka County, Nevada, and surrounding areas.
More than 1,000 reports since March, 2009colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.comBlogger1006125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-30404947187870386932023-05-05T21:47:00.004-07:002023-05-05T21:53:27.625-07:00Gold Tops April High; $2,450 still in the Cards<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN8t_76llzXm2XrsgeQXNfcb2hayFJwsKSpvZkmqdvj67Lwy90O9fRxP259T0hvNuJDT-pcZp50YnY_ZyN2vyw4-kbogp_Y0hloUb_pz2SAIk4uArU8WaXmGTeD4F_uWkvq5usxCTB5S7puk9P_w8XhSeGlhen8j2XmVroldEEiV7N7wK2NQ0fUB0aRw/s1024/Colonel%20Possum%20gate%20(2018).JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="315" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN8t_76llzXm2XrsgeQXNfcb2hayFJwsKSpvZkmqdvj67Lwy90O9fRxP259T0hvNuJDT-pcZp50YnY_ZyN2vyw4-kbogp_Y0hloUb_pz2SAIk4uArU8WaXmGTeD4F_uWkvq5usxCTB5S7puk9P_w8XhSeGlhen8j2XmVroldEEiV7N7wK2NQ0fUB0aRw/w407-h315/Colonel%20Possum%20gate%20(2018).JPG" width="407" /></a></div><p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><b><i>Beyond the Gate</i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, May 5, 2023 PM</i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i><br /></i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="text-align: left;"><i>***</i></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="font-family: arial;">I'm still bullish gold in the near term.</span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Here's what Chief Editor Neils Christensen said in this his</span><span> </span><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-05-05/Sentiment-in-gold-market-doesn-t-point-to-record-highs-yet-but-analysts-say-the-dip-should-be-bought.html"><span>Kitco Weekly Gold Survey</span><span>:</span></a></span></p></div><p></p><p style="line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px;"><span face="Arial, verdana, sans-serif" style="font-family: arial;">"Richard Baker, creator of the Eureka Gold Miner's Report, said he is bullish on gold as the U.S. continues to inch closer to a government default the longer the debt limit debate goes on. He added that this uncertainty will continue to support gold, similar to what happened in 2011.</span></p><p style="line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px;"><span face="Arial, verdana, sans-serif" style="font-family: arial;">'We've seen this Congressional kabuki dance before - the 2011 U.S. debt crisis drove gold prices to a new record,' he said. 'Congress must raise or suspend the debt limit to avoid market calamity, but both sides of the debate remain intransigent. If cooler heads prevail and a default is avoided, gold prices could quickly fall back to earth. In the meantime, I standby last week's prediction that gold could reach or possibly surpass <b>$2,450</b> in the coming weeks.'</span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><p style="line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-family: arial;">My contrarian vote was a move up to <b>$2,080</b> sometime next week. <br /></span></p><p style="line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Comex gold futures are presently <b>$2024.80</b> for June.</span></p><p style="line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-family: arial;">On a closing basis, Thursday gold inched out April's high of <b>$2,055.30</b> (4/13) by 40 cents touching $<b>2,055.70</b></span></p><p style="line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Rock on Miners!</span></p><p style="font-family: Arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><br /></p></div>colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-12294847771578329722023-04-29T09:55:00.007-07:002023-04-29T10:07:29.042-07:00Gold $2,450 in the Next Several Months<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaAWd-kPEjdOENtJWytTuCDl5q_q52qfhWoHGrqlo_HM14tZmKu3oZ4NPq5ueYnskHy9pyV8XA43XdQmyzz3HkyawC5xZVAoau9Svz2S5z6MfVYGsOyZuDq0dbPf27wuUTwpq3gAw-e56XnanaMrMdqYVGHCBiFsesjQjm99bqRAXoNpKINzLEc-vZAg/s660/Eureka%20Wall%202%20660W.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="495" data-original-width="660" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaAWd-kPEjdOENtJWytTuCDl5q_q52qfhWoHGrqlo_HM14tZmKu3oZ4NPq5ueYnskHy9pyV8XA43XdQmyzz3HkyawC5xZVAoau9Svz2S5z6MfVYGsOyZuDq0dbPf27wuUTwpq3gAw-e56XnanaMrMdqYVGHCBiFsesjQjm99bqRAXoNpKINzLEc-vZAg/s320/Eureka%20Wall%202%20660W.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><i>Eureka Shadows from the Past</i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Saturday, April 29, 2023 AM</i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i><br /></i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="text-align: left;"><i>***</i></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="font-family: arial;">I'm in good health at 75, “rumors of my demise have been
greatly exaggerated.” </span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="font-family: arial;">That's almost an exact quote from Mark Twain, it has been
tweaked some over the years. Good enough for ranch work!</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="font-family: arial;">After a two-year hiatus, the ole Colonel couldn't help
but jump back in to put his two bits on future gold prices. Here's what Chief
Editor Neils Christensen said in this his <a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-04-28/Sentiment-shows-gold-is-stuck-in-neutral-at-around-2-000-an-ounce.html">Kitco Weekly Gold Survey</a>:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p></p><p style="line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">"Looking beyond U.S. monetary policies, Richard Baker, creator of the Eureka Gold Miner's Report, said that the ongoing debt ceiling debate poses a significant economic risk and could support gold prices.</span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><p style="line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-family: arial;">"History may not repeat but looks set to rhyme in the next several months. The "raising the debt limit debate' will raise <a href="https://www.kitco.com/Gold-price-today-USA/" style="color: #003871; text-decoration-line: none;">gold</a> prices to <b>$2,450</b> or beyond," he said. It is important to remember that a U.S. debt downgrade and not default set the ball rolling to record gold prices in 2011. Perceived inability to govern was the catalyst."</span></p><p style="line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-family: arial;">My contrarian vote was a move up to <b>$2,010</b> sometime next week. Here's what I wrote in 2011 when gold prices scored a new record on the heels of that U.S. debt debate:</span></p><p style="line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><a href="http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2011/08/189860oz-gold-4409oz-silver-miners-see.html"><span style="font-family: arial;">$1,898.60/oz Gold; $44.09/oz Silver; Miners See Sunlight Above (Eureka Miner, August 23, 2011)</span></a></p><p style="line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Comex gold futures are presently <b>$1,999.10</b> for June.</span></p><p style="line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Rock on Miners!</span></p><p style="font-family: Arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><br /></p></div><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; text-align: start;"><span face="verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; text-align: start;"><span face="verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; text-align: start;"><span face="verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; text-align: start;"><span face="verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; text-align: start;"><span face="verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span face="verdana, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: small; text-align: start;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span face="verdana, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: small; text-align: start;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span face="verdana, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: small; text-align: start;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span face="verdana, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: small; text-align: start;"><br /></span></div><p></p>colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-45551681654103505372021-02-19T10:28:00.004-08:002021-02-19T22:48:35.664-08:00Gold $1,785 in House of Pain; Red Metal Breaks $4.00; Silver Resilient Above $27<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X8GTGkIieQ0/YC_x_Zaqt3I/AAAAAAAAtvI/hR3UzJO_OSszFbDNihFHoBgdLFn0xDibACNcBGAsYHQ/s2048/Habernero%2B600lbs.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1536" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X8GTGkIieQ0/YC_x_Zaqt3I/AAAAAAAAtvI/hR3UzJO_OSszFbDNihFHoBgdLFn0xDibACNcBGAsYHQ/w300-h400/Habernero%2B600lbs.jpg" width="300" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>"<i>Habanero</i>"</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Winter Storms Uri & Viola</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Clyde, Texas</b></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, February 19, 2021 AM</i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>***</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,760 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $27.50 per ounce</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1342/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="356" data-original-width="1342" height="106" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h106/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="text-align: left;"><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Morning!</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Our dear friends in Clyde, Texas (outside Abilene) have seen brutal weather this week from Winter Storms Uri and Viola. The headline photo is "Habanero" toughing it out in the snow. Fortunately, they have generators, water and the donkeys have a warm place to shelter. The Eureka Miner sends its best and hopes for warmer weather!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold might as well be in a winter storm. The yellow metal is down from its early morning high of $1,790.9 per ounce, thankfully up from its low of $1,759. As you will see from my Kitco input yesterday, holding the $1,760-level is key or the yellow metal will really be in a house of pain. Comex copper broke above $4 per pound pound today - we haven't been at these levels in nearly 10 years! Silver has also shown considerable strength touching $27.74 per ounce before declining some:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>April</b> gold is presently trading at <b>$1,785.6 per ounce</b> (8:32 am Eureka Time).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>May </b>silver is presently <b>$27.59 per ounce</b> (8:31 am Eureka Time). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>May</b> copper is presently <b>$4.0625 per pound </b>(8:31 am Eureka Time)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-02-19/Sentiment-in-gold-is-turning-bearish-after-prices-test-eight-month-low.html">Kitco Weekly Gold Survey</a></b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">[Note: my inputs are now "early bird" Thursday morning summaries]</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>I remain bearish on gold at least for the near term - Comex futures will likely test the lows of mid-2020 before deciding whether the trend down is over (~$1,760-level).</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>The lustrous metal plight is illustrated by comparison to two metals and the S&P 500. The uncommon negative correlation with silver persists on a 1-month basis, both of these precious metals are usually highly correlated in a positive sense. The copper-to-gold ratio has been in a strong trend of higher-lows since last August and is accelerating higher with copper prices breaking the $3.9 </i>[Friday update $4.0] <i>per pound level. I believe the gold-to-silver ratio will plumb 64 ounce per ounce next week.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Takeaway - the yellow metal is steadily losing value to the red and white. Finally, gold has been losing value to rising equities since the U.S. Presidential Election. The gold-to-S&P 500 ratio has fallen to mid-2019 levels.
My gold target for next week is $1,760 with silver rising slightly to $27.50.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>On the flip side, market-driven inflation expectations are still on the rise. The 10-year Treasury breakeven rate is now above 2% (2.21% 2/17 Wednesday). However interest rates still have not risen as fast as expectations, so the 10-year real rate is a negative 0.89%; the 5-year is a negative 1.83%. For a non-interest earning asset like gold, negative interest rates are potentially bullish. Gold is also considered by many to be an inflation hedge. </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.
</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Stay safe my friends.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Chart for the Week</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The ratio of copper-to-gold prices has really taken off from last October. As you can read from the commentaries below, there is a strong relationship between this ratio and interest rates.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fKiUttiiZ4Y/YDABx3QREeI/AAAAAAAAtvU/QsvWIiPp5Ck_yd7WgrQk04q0YCHJ1GUdQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/GCR%2B%252802-19-2021%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fKiUttiiZ4Y/YDABx3QREeI/AAAAAAAAtvU/QsvWIiPp5Ck_yd7WgrQk04q0YCHJ1GUdQCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/GCR%2B%252802-19-2021%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Copper-to-Gold Ratio</b></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Cheers,</div><div><br />Colonel Possum & Mariana<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div></div></div>colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-67104091938234229162020-12-18T09:34:00.007-08:002020-12-22T22:41:53.102-08:00Gold $1,896, $1,900+ Next Week; Red Metal New High $3.64<p> <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-crc9dMcPWQo/X9zgTRzxgHI/AAAAAAAAqqk/FPVB_Cm2R0AQyZ5W6McczaSarcTfnMhXgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1440/Open%2BRoad%2B%2528Lone%2BMountain%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1440" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-crc9dMcPWQo/X9zgTRzxgHI/AAAAAAAAqqk/FPVB_Cm2R0AQyZ5W6McczaSarcTfnMhXgCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h300/Open%2BRoad%2B%2528Lone%2BMountain%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Open Road, Lone Mountain</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Eureka County, NV</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i>If I were asked to pick two words to describe America it would be "open road."</i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i>Freedom of travel, the notion of a new horizon beyond every skyline.</i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i>These are at the very core of the beautiful experiment we call America.</i></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, December 18, 2020 AM</i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>***</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,920 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $26.45 per ounce</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free Press, 6/4/2020)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1342/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="356" data-original-width="1342" height="106" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h106/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Morning!</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold is down from its early morning high of $1,895.7 per ounce but should fly above $1,900 next week. The ole Colonel remains bullish for 2020. Comex copper scored a new high earlier this morning at $3.6445 per pound.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>February</b> gold is presently trading at <b>$1,889.2 per ounce</b> (8:53 am Eureka Time).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>March </b>silver is presently <b>$26.07 per ounce</b> (9:03 am Eureka Time). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>March</b> copper is presently <b>$3.6250 per pound </b>(9:03 am Eureka Time)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-12-18/Sentiment-in-gold-market-turns-extremely-bullish-as-prices-push-to-1-900-by-year-end.html">Kitco Weekly Gold Survey</a></b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">[Note: my inputs are now "early bird" Thursday morning summaries]</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>This morning's </i>[12/17]<i> Comex February gold breakout above the $1,900-level is a welcome sign and may signal a reversal in gold's range-bound behavior since (U.S.) Thanksgiving week ($1,880.7, 11/23 range top; $1,767.2, 11/30 bottom). This may seem counterintuitive with global equities surging higher and the U.S. dollar plumbing a new low (DXY= 89.75) on positive vaccine news and additional fiscal stimulus in the pipeline. However, there are good reasons for safe-havens to enjoy a reboot in the coming weeks. </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Weaker signals from the U.S. manufacturing sector and spike up in unemployment claims signal that the road to a robust economic recovery will still be rocky in the months ahead. Real interest rates also provide some clues. The U.S. 5-year real rate has dropped a full 31 basis points (bps) more negative in only 1-month (-1.57%); the 10-year is less dramatic but notably slumping 19 bps (-1.06%). Negative interest rates are a bullish environment for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Finally, the copper-to-gold ratio peaked last week (0.1946, 12/10). This is a fairly dependable leading indicator for 10-year Treasury yield. The ratio and yields have been trending higher - a falling ratio signals lower interest rates ahead, at least until the recovery catches a gear. 10-year Inflation expectations are also on the rise (1.92%, 12/16) which, in combination with yield, supports more negative real rates and possible inflationary pressures in 2021. Gold is considered by many to be an inflation hedge. </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Stay safe my friends.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Chart for the Week</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The stability trajectory of the copper-gold ratio suggests the ratio has peaked for the time being. The two charts below were first created last Friday (12/11) and updated with this Friday's close. They tell the story. Presently the copper-gold ratio is 0.1923 which is less than the high of 12/10 or 0.1946.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Ratio extremum (high or low) typically happen in the upper-right quadrant of the lambda-Map (first graph). A counter-clockwise trajectory turn marks when the peak/trough in copper-gold occurs (usually within several market days).
Given recent data, Thursday 12/10 may very well be the peak following 4 market-days after the turn (blue arrow). The second graph shows the copper-gold ratio plotted against time. Interestingly, the ratio low (0.1384) occurred last summer during another period of ratio instability.* </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">* an unstable condition is defined as a ratio whose 1-month and 3-month volatility both exceed 4%. This level is based on historical records of the copper-gold relationship.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U5Welh8oMgE/X-DRBXjb0GI/AAAAAAAAqrQ/83snDkknQjghL0LUi6U1ArX-_oxA5sopgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/GCR%2Blambda%2BMap%2B%252812-20-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1439" data-original-width="1500" height="384" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U5Welh8oMgE/X-DRBXjb0GI/AAAAAAAAqrQ/83snDkknQjghL0LUi6U1ArX-_oxA5sopgCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h384/GCR%2Blambda%2BMap%2B%252812-20-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Copper-Gold Ratio lambda-Map</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iUsY6EyufW8/X-DRLQ3nvII/AAAAAAAAqrU/-Lmkaod3zWkFAGs71bCIpQ3B7B07ze-GwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Copper-Gold%2Bratio%2BChart%2B%252812-20-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iUsY6EyufW8/X-DRLQ3nvII/AAAAAAAAqrU/-Lmkaod3zWkFAGs71bCIpQ3B7B07ze-GwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/Copper-Gold%2Bratio%2BChart%2B%252812-20-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Copper-Gold Ratio</b></div></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Cheers,</div><div><br />Colonel Possum & Mariana<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div></div></div>colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-81714717604167337942020-10-30T09:23:00.004-07:002020-10-31T21:23:38.316-07:00Gold Recovers $1,890; Next Week Like No Other<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ngLHqgBS3OI/X5wwegihArI/AAAAAAAAo2s/HYa6dw2z-jo129JkwENJXP_faL3q5n3KgCNcBGAsYHQ/s2048/Eureka%2BIV%2B12-05%2B109%2BMail%2BBoxes.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ngLHqgBS3OI/X5wwegihArI/AAAAAAAAo2s/HYa6dw2z-jo129JkwENJXP_faL3q5n3KgCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h300/Eureka%2BIV%2B12-05%2B109%2BMail%2BBoxes.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>Mailboxes (2006)</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Eureka County, Nevada</b></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, October 30, 2020 AM</i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>***</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,910 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $24.04 per ounce</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free Press, 6/4/2020)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1342/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="356" data-original-width="1342" height="106" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h106/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Morning!</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold is down from its early morning high of $1,890 per ounce but should find some giddy-up next week. The ole Colonel remains bullish for 2020 - I believe we will see a breakout higher post-election. Here's where we're trading:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> gold is presently trading at <b>$1,882,4 per ounce</b> (8:17 am Eureka Time).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December </b>Silver is presently <b>$23.65 per ounce</b> (8:17 am Eureka Time). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> copper is presently <b>$3.0535 per pound </b>(8:17 am Eureka Time)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-10-30/Wall-Street-looking-past-election-while-retail-investors-remain-cautious.html">Kitco Weekly Gold Survey</a></b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Although gold got battered below the key $1,900-level this week, it did well compared to key commodities, domestic equities and the euro from a comparative value viewpoint. With some Central banks selling gold to cover covid expenses and jewelry demand down, it is up to the investor to keep prices supported. That support turns on how much market uncertainty lies ahead - it's hard to imagine a time less certain than next week. Presidential elections, contested or not, alarming covid infections in the U.S., lockdowns in Europe and stalled stimulus plans in Congress create a witches brew that will extend well beyond Halloween. The near-term fortunes of safe-havens shine bright.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>One troubling sign is a persistent divergence of correlations between gold and copper compared to those of the Chinese yuan and copper </i>[see discussion below]<i>. Extreme divergence occured in early-February when covid was ravaging China but just reaching the shores of Europe and the U.S. This peak in divergence presaged the March market chaos in the West. Now the roles are reversed: China is on the road to recovery as Europe and the U.S. face new waves of coronavirus infections. Although the recent correlation divergence is less severe, it may portend another round of market chaos in the weeks ahead. If it does, precious metals will prosper.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>I believe gold will regain $1,910 per ounce next week with silver following to $24.05 per ounce. My target for 2020 remains unchanged at $2,200 for gold and a lower $28 target for silver.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Three conditions for higher gold remain since gold's all-time record:</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>1. There remains plenty of domestic and geo-political uncertainty to support safe havens: U.S. election controversy, a stalled recovery package in Congress, a stubbornly pervasive covid-19 virus, civil unrest and simmering U.S./China tension.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>2. The longer-term fortunes of the U.S. dollar grow dimmer with more expected Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury largesse when a relief package does eventually pass.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>3. Negative U.S. benchmark real rates continue - bullish for non-interest earning assets like gold and silver (10-year real rate = -0.88%). Notably, recent inflation expectations have ticked back up to near August levels (1.71% vs. 1.80%) </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>These are the strange times of coronavirus. </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Stay safe my friends.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Chart for the Week</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Our Chart for the Week is an update from last week.The ole Colonel is closely monitoring correlations of copper with gold and also the Chinese currency. China's economy is recovering to near pre-pandemic levels and they account for about one-half of global copper demand. Therefore, a positive indication for China is a strengthening yuan coupled with demand-driven copper prices. However, when gold and copper prices go in different directions there is often trouble afoot. Presently, pessimism about global recovery with new waves of coronavirus in Europe and possibly the U.S. has caused some de-correlation of the red and yellow metals (click on image for larger size):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b_YiKY3Ugb4/X5w3FGNWudI/AAAAAAAAo24/nV23394w86cC9cxuSWkSn2T0KPS1lhveACNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Au-Cu%2BCNY-Cu%2Brho%2BMap%2B%252810-30-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1195" data-original-width="1500" height="319" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b_YiKY3Ugb4/X5w3FGNWudI/AAAAAAAAo24/nV23394w86cC9cxuSWkSn2T0KPS1lhveACNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h319/Au-Cu%2BCNY-Cu%2Brho%2BMap%2B%252810-30-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Correlation Map of Copper with the Yuan & Gold</b></div><div><br /></div><div>The divergence between the two correlation trajectories is shown by the dashed magenta arrow. You can learn more about how this works in a Kitco column I wrote earlier this year:</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">If we plot divergence (d) versus time, you can see how the U.S./China trade tensions caused spikes in divergence last year (Point A) and also how the coronavirus initially impacted China (Point B). In this chart, a low number (i.e. low divergence) is considered good. There has been a move back up above the 6-year average (d=0.78) and the peak may have occurred Wednesday (1.5604). Divergence breaks above the falling trend line (dashed blue arrow), remains troubling. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Extreme divergence occured in early-February (Point B) when covid was ravaging China but just reaching the shores of Europe and the U.S. This peak in divergence presaged the March market chaos in the West. Now the roles are reversed: China is on the road to recovery as Europe and the U.S. face new waves of coronavirus infections. Although the recent correlation divergence is less severe, it may portend another round of market chaos in the weeks ahead. If it does, precious metals will prosper.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5SI5FUJC0l8/X5w540QVJPI/AAAAAAAAo3M/SV8BbC3vkV8z7TlhXdPpPD41TZ10GVdPwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/C2rDI%2B%252810-30-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5SI5FUJC0l8/X5w540QVJPI/AAAAAAAAo3M/SV8BbC3vkV8z7TlhXdPpPD41TZ10GVdPwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/C2rDI%2B%252810-30-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE RECORD GOLD PRICE?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The new all-time Comex gold record is $2,089.2 (December contract)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">What makes a record gold price? There are many correct answers to this question, different answers but no less true. Some folks refer to the spot gold price on a particular day others futures prices. They may cite a closing or intraday number. For the purposes of this report, the "<b>all-time record" refers to the highest intraday price on the Comex futures exchange for the most active front-month contract.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The old record was $1,923.7 per ounce.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">That occurred on Tuesday, September 6, 2011. I reported on the record intraday price the following day in this <i>Eureka Miner</i>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-trips-copper-oil-bounce.html"><b>Gold Trips; Copper & Oil Bounce</b></a> (<i>Eureka Miner</i>, 9/7/2011)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE INFLATION-ADJUSTED 2011 GOLD RECORD? [Updated for latest CPI]</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">You can bring the 2011 gold record forward in time by using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The government data is easily accessible on the internet. The numbers below were taken from a chart provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in a database called <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL"><b>FRED (<u>F</u>ederal <u>R</u>eserve <u>E</u>conomic <u>D</u>ata)</b></a>. Here's the formula, given the monthly data through <b>September 2020</b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold Record (2011) x [CPI (7/2020)/CPI (9/2011)] = </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">$1,923.7/t-oz x [<b>260.209</b>/226.597] = <b>$2,209/t-oz</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An even easier method is to use one of the many <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">inflation calculators</a> on the internet that use CPI. <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">This link</a> takes you to one provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>$2,200 is therefore a reasonable next target for gold price this year if you believe, as the ole Colonel does, that the rally continues.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Cheers,</div><div><br />Colonel Possum & Mariana<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div></div></div>colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-59448772528912704042020-10-23T09:37:00.002-07:002020-10-24T16:39:24.838-07:00Gold Falls from $1,936 Wednesday High; Breakout Higher Post-Election<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/---rWv8nCC2Q/X5L5mj4ELSI/AAAAAAAAo1U/G_uO-KDZKEgSNgOBZrSZj5n1osXwVV0uQCNcBGAsYHQ/s660/FridayLoopTonkinCreekDamele%2B561%2B-%2BWillow%2BCreek.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="495" data-original-width="660" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/---rWv8nCC2Q/X5L5mj4ELSI/AAAAAAAAo1U/G_uO-KDZKEgSNgOBZrSZj5n1osXwVV0uQCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h300/FridayLoopTonkinCreekDamele%2B561%2B-%2BWillow%2BCreek.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i style="text-align: left;"><b>Willow Creek Ranch</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Eureka County, Nevada</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, October 23, 2020 AM</i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>***</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,920 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $24.93 per ounce</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free Press, 6/4/2020)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1342/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="356" data-original-width="1342" height="106" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h106/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Morning!</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold is down from its Wednesday high of $1,936 but don't despair. The ole Colonel remains bullish for 2020 - I believe we will see a breakout higher post-election. Here's where we're trading:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> gold is presently trading at <b>$1,901.1 per ounce</b> (8:32 am Eureka Time).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December </b>Silver is currently trading at <b>$24.69 per ounce</b> (8:33 am Eureka Time). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> copper is presently <b>$3.1395 per pound </b>(8:32 am Eureka Time)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-10-23/Gold-market-holding-its-breath-ahead-of-U-S-election.html">Kitco Weekly Gold Survey</a></b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Lacking a late-October surprise, it is challenging to imagine a market driver that will move the lustrous metal from its resilient meanderings of late until post-election. December Comex prices remain locked in a wedge defined by September highs and lows ($1,983.8 and $1,851.0). This suggests a breakout higher in November given the lengthening shadows of coronavirus infections both here and in Europe. Europe PMI today indicating contraction is a good example. I believe gold will move just above the middle of the wedge next week to $1,920 per ounce with silver following to $24.93 per ounce.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>It has been much more exciting to monitor interest rates this week. Globally they are on the rise with the 10-year approaching mid-June levels (0.86% vs. 0.90%). Here's the good news for gold: inflation expectations are also headed north. The 5-year real rate increased negativity a full 7 basis points to -1.31% which is very bullish for precious metals (point 3 below). </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>China's yuan also continues to strengthen from late May as their economy approaches pre-pandemic levels and the virus there is relatively contained. Concurrent with this currency strength is the rise of copper prices above $7,000 per tonne </i>[$3.1752 per pound]<i>, China comprises 50% of the global demand for the red metal. This underlines the growing disparity between covid-recovering economies while the U.S. and Europe face a new wave of cases. This disparity will fuel market uncertainty further supporting gold prices into the new year.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>My target for 2020 remains unchanged at $2,200 for gold and $32 for silver.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Three conditions for higher gold remain since gold's all-time record:</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>1. There remains plenty of domestic and geo-political uncertainty to support safe havens: U.S. election controversy, a stalled recovery package in Congress, a stubbornly pervasive covid-19 virus, civil unrest and simmering U.S./China tension.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>2. The longer-term fortunes of the U.S. dollar grow dimmer with more expected Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury largesse when a relief package does eventually pass.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>3. Negative U.S. benchmark real rates continue - bullish for non-interest earning assets like gold and silver. Notably, recent inflation expectations have ticked back up to near August levels (1.76% vs. 1.80%)
These are the strange times of coronavirus. Stay safe my friends.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Chart for the Week</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Our Chart for the Week is an update from last week.The ole Colonel is closely monitoring correlations of copper with gold and also the Chinese currency. China's economy is recovering to near pre-pandemic levels and they account for about one-half of global copper demand. Therefore, a positive indication for China is a strengthening yuan coupled with demand-driven copper prices. However, when gold and copper prices go in different directions there is often trouble afoot. Presently, pessimism about global recovery with new waves of coronavirus in Europe and possibly the U.S. has caused come de-correlation of the red and yellow metals (click on image for larger size):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JjmlEuIIx4U/X5MCtakJC2I/AAAAAAAAo1g/bNLGnOFe0CIrg1h_8layJRHxbEn0VLWFwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Au-Cu%2BCNY-Cu%2Brho%2BMap%2B%252810-23-2020%2529%2BAM%2B5-in.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1196" data-original-width="1500" height="319" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JjmlEuIIx4U/X5MCtakJC2I/AAAAAAAAo1g/bNLGnOFe0CIrg1h_8layJRHxbEn0VLWFwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h319/Au-Cu%2BCNY-Cu%2Brho%2BMap%2B%252810-23-2020%2529%2BAM%2B5-in.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Correlation Map of Copper with the Yuan & Gold</b></div><div><br /></div><div>The divergence between the two correlation trajectories is shown by the dashed magenta arrow. You can learn more about how this works in a Kitco column I wrote earlier this year:</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">If we plot divergence (d) versus time, you can see how the U.S./China trade tensions caused spikes in divergence last year (Point A) and also how the coronavirus initially impacted China (Point B). In this chart, a low number (i.e. low divergence) is considered good. There has been a move back up (d=1.37010) above the 6-year average (d=0.78) but the peak may have occurred yesterday (1.38750). Divergence breaks above the falling trend line (dashed blue arrow), remains troubling. I will monitor this closely.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SH-P_tLG174/X5MC-tKFXaI/AAAAAAAAo1o/SmbT-pJ9Eo4qMdUF0egb5ox6qiABw3RIQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/C2rDI%2B%252810-23-2020%2529%2BAM%2B5-in.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SH-P_tLG174/X5MC-tKFXaI/AAAAAAAAo1o/SmbT-pJ9Eo4qMdUF0egb5ox6qiABw3RIQCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/C2rDI%2B%252810-23-2020%2529%2BAM%2B5-in.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE RECORD GOLD PRICE?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The new all-time Comex gold record is $2,089.2 (December contract)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">What makes a record gold price? There are many correct answers to this question, different answers but no less true. Some folks refer to the spot gold price on a particular day others futures prices. They may cite a closing or intraday number. For the purposes of this report, the "<b>all-time record" refers to the highest intraday price on the Comex futures exchange for the most active front-month contract.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The old record was $1,923.7 per ounce.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">That occurred on Tuesday, September 6, 2011. I reported on the record intraday price the following day in this <i>Eureka Miner</i>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-trips-copper-oil-bounce.html"><b>Gold Trips; Copper & Oil Bounce</b></a> (<i>Eureka Miner</i>, 9/7/2011)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE INFLATION-ADJUSTED 2011 GOLD RECORD? [Updated for latest CPI]</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">You can bring the 2011 gold record forward in time by using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The government data is easily accessible on the internet. The numbers below were taken from a chart provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in a database called <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL"><b>FRED (<u>F</u>ederal <u>R</u>eserve <u>E</u>conomic <u>D</u>ata)</b></a>. Here's the formula, given the monthly data through <b>September 2020</b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold Record (2011) x [CPI (7/2020)/CPI (9/2011)] = </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">$1,923.7/t-oz x [<b>260.209</b>/226.597] = <b>$2,209/t-oz</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An even easier method is to use one of the many <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">inflation calculators</a> on the internet that use CPI. <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">This link</a> takes you to one provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>$2,200 is therefore a reasonable next target for gold price this year if you believe, as the ole Colonel does, that the rally continues.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Cheers,</div><div><br />Colonel Possum & Mariana<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div></div></div>colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-73012937005353724362020-10-16T08:38:00.008-07:002020-10-18T13:54:11.036-07:00Gold $1,918, Bullish Breakout on the Horizon<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-s0H6dkLZ1_M/X4m9tetwVsI/AAAAAAAAo0I/ZqiQt6I-8T03MKEtRe_x_ryNiiag36QOgCNcBGAsYHQ/s868/Kitchen%2527s%2BMarket.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="577" data-original-width="868" height="246" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-s0H6dkLZ1_M/X4m9tetwVsI/AAAAAAAAo0I/ZqiQt6I-8T03MKEtRe_x_ryNiiag36QOgCNcBGAsYHQ/w370-h246/Kitchen%2527s%2BMarket.jpg" width="370" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i style="text-align: left;"><b>Kitchen's Market</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, October 16, 2020 AM</i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>***</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,920 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $24.67 per ounce</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free Press, 6/4/2020)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1342/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="356" data-original-width="1342" height="106" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h106/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Morning!</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold is down for the week nearly a percent but nicely treading water. The ole Colonel remains bullish for 2020. Here's where we're trading: gold pulling back from $1918,7 per ounce:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> gold is presently trading at <b>$1,909.1 per ounce</b> (8:06 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December </b>Silver is currently trading at <b>$24.43 per ounce</b> (8:06 am Eureka Time). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> copper is presently <b>$3.0635 per pound </b>(8:06 am Eureka Time)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-10-16/Investors-lose-interest-in-gold-as-sentiment-remains-bullish-but-prices-stuck-in-neutral.html">Kitco Weekly Gold Survey</a></b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Not exactly a fun day at the beach for markets, lots of cross-currents and a few rip tides. This morning is a good example: U.S. retail sales surprise to the upside, industrial production surprises to the downside. As gold holds its ground above the $1,900-level, market participants appear pleased to have the lustrous lifeguard on duty but few are crying for help. December Comex prices are locked in a new wedge defined by September highs and lows ($1,983.8 and $1,851.0) suggesting a breakout higher if a bad headline or two washes beachgoers out to sea.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>What are the cross currents? </i><i>Currencies and interest rates offer some clues. China's yuan has been strengthening since late May as their economy returns to pre-pandemic levels and the virus there is relatively contained. In stark contrast, the euro has been trending lower since early-September as a second wave of infections puts a chill on their recovery. The German bund tumbled a full 10 basis points more negative this week as the U.S. 10-year Treasury bumped a few higher. With startling higher case rates in many states, it seems the U.S is on a path with Europe to more challenging times.
Gold will likely remain in the wedge next week - my targets are Comex gold $1,920 with silver following to $24.67. My target for 2020 remains unchanged at $2,200 for gold and $32 for silver. </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Three conditions for higher gold remain since gold's all-time record: </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><i>There remains plenty of domestic and geo-political uncertainty to support safe havens: U.S. election controversy, a stalled recovery package in Congress, a stubbornly pervasive covid-19 virus, civil unrest and simmering U.S./China tension. </i></li><li><i>The longer-term fortunes of the U.S. dollar grow dimmer with more expected Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury largesse when a relief package does eventually pass. </i></li><li><i> Negative U.S. benchmark real rates continue - bullish for non-interest earning assets like gold and silver. Notably, recent inflation expectations have ticked back up to nearAugust levels (1.69% vs. 1.80%)</i></li></ol></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.
Stay safe my friends.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Chart for the Week</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The ole Colonel is closely monitoring correlations of copper with gold and also the Chinese currency. China's economy is recovering to near pre-pandemic levels and they account for about one-half of global copper demand. Therefore, a positive indication for China is a strengthening yuan coupled with demand-driven copper prices. However, when gold and copper prices go in different directions there is often trouble afoot. Presently, pessimism about global recovery with new waves of coronavirus in Europe and possibly the U.S. has caused come de-correlation of the red and yellow metals (click on image for larger size):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tYet7NXNUN4/X4ynNba0uEI/AAAAAAAAo0g/G2eLflL7lioEMsaH4PLDCrF2AbsNBz_HwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Au-Cu%2BCNY-Cu%2Brho%2BMap%2B%252810-17-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1196" data-original-width="1500" height="319" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tYet7NXNUN4/X4ynNba0uEI/AAAAAAAAo0g/G2eLflL7lioEMsaH4PLDCrF2AbsNBz_HwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h319/Au-Cu%2BCNY-Cu%2Brho%2BMap%2B%252810-17-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><b><div style="text-align: center;"><b>Correlation Map of Copper with the Yuan & Gold</b></div></b><div><br /></div><div>The divergence between the two correlation trajectories is shown by the dashed magenta arrow. You can learn more about how this works in a Kitco column I wrote earlier this year:</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">If we plot divergence (d) versus time, you can see how the U.S./China trade tensions caused spikes in divergence last year (Point A) and also how the coronavirus initially impacted China (Point B). In this chart, a low number (i.e. low divergence) is good. Last Friday's closing numbers suggest a troubling move back up (d=1.1038) above the 6-year average (d=0.78). If divergence breaks above the falling trend line (dashed blue arrow), there may be trouble ahead for everyone.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YuZ25qeBFIs/X4yphOraYZI/AAAAAAAAo0s/2ATgxROzEBwnpLX9wPIlcrPB_djVX_JmQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/CrDI%2B%252810-16-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YuZ25qeBFIs/X4yphOraYZI/AAAAAAAAo0s/2ATgxROzEBwnpLX9wPIlcrPB_djVX_JmQCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/CrDI%2B%252810-16-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE RECORD GOLD PRICE?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The new all-time Comex gold record is $2,089.2 (December contract)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">What makes a record gold price? There are many correct answers to this question, different answers but no less true. Some folks refer to the spot gold price on a particular day others futures prices. They may cite a closing or intraday number. For the purposes of this report, the "<b>all-time record" refers to the highest intraday price on the Comex futures exchange for the most active front-month contract.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The old record was $1,923.7 per ounce.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">That occurred on Tuesday, September 6, 2011. I reported on the record intraday price the following day in this <i>Eureka Miner</i>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-trips-copper-oil-bounce.html"><b>Gold Trips; Copper & Oil Bounce</b></a> (<i>Eureka Miner</i>, 9/7/2011)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE INFLATION-ADJUSTED 2011 GOLD RECORD? [Updated for latest CPI]</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">You can bring the 2011 gold record forward in time by using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The government data is easily accessible on the internet. The numbers below were taken from a chart provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in a database called <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL"><b>FRED (<u>F</u>ederal <u>R</u>eserve <u>E</u>conomic <u>D</u>ata)</b></a>. Here's the formula, the latest monthly data is through <b>July 2020</b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold Record (2011) x [CPI (7/2020)/CPI (9/2011)] = </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">$1,923.7/t-oz x [<b>258.723</b>/226.597] = <b>$2,196/t-oz</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An even easier method is to use one of the many <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">inflation calculators</a> on the internet that use CPI. <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">This link</a> takes you to one provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>$2,200 is therefore a reasonable next target for gold price this year if you believe, as the ole Colonel, that the rally continues.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Cheers,</div><div><br />Colonel Possum & Mariana<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div></div></div>colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-68210757467368481102020-09-04T10:27:00.006-07:002020-09-18T09:12:13.931-07:00Gold Retreats from $1,956, Copper above $3; August Jobs Surprise<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vXYRRkM2Vhk/X1Jl4X2lcXI/AAAAAAAAoqw/k9paUnbHXiAZ3Vm5oUW4QUi7QE5mukaOgCNcBGAsYHQ/s660/Trip%2Bto%2BDevil%2527s%2BGate%2B077.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="495" data-original-width="660" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vXYRRkM2Vhk/X1Jl4X2lcXI/AAAAAAAAoqw/k9paUnbHXiAZ3Vm5oUW4QUi7QE5mukaOgCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h300/Trip%2Bto%2BDevil%2527s%2BGate%2B077.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><i><b>Backside of Devil's Gate</b></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Alaskite columnar formations</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>NOTICE: Below is the 1,000th report by the Eureka Miner and sadly its last. After 11 years of reporting market news for Eureka County and surrounding areas, the ole Colonel has decided to move on to new adventures. I still plan to do market analysis and to be a periodic contributor to Kitco News, Elko Daily Free Press, Mining Quarterly and others. Please follow </b><b>the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. It's been a good ride, Happy Trails!</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, September 4, 2020 AM</i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>***</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,950 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $27.17 per ounce</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free Press, 6/4/2020)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1342/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="356" data-original-width="1342" height="106" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h106/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Morning Miners!</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There is good news on two fronts. The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm"><b>August jobs report</b></a>, released today, shows headline unemployment falling into single digits at 8.4%. The peak was 14.7% in April - that's progress! The daily covid-19 positivity rate for Nevada is also falling, briefly into single digits earlier this week. It was in a worrying range of 14-15%. Positivity has crept up a bit to 11.8% but the trend is down - under 5% is the goal. Stay safe, pardner!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Before the report, Comex December gold made a run at $1,956.6 per ounce. Here's where we're trading, gold and silver pulling back from earlier highs (Weekly summaries below are recorded near the market open, 6:30 Eureka Time):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> gold is presently trading at <b>$1,927.9 per ounce</b> (9:16 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December </b>Silver is currently trading at <b>$26.62 per ounce</b> (9:16 am Eureka Time). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> copper is presently <b>$3.0515 per pound </b>(9:16 am Eureka Time)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-09-04/Sentiment-in-gold-market-shifting-as-Wall-Street-bears-come-back-dollar-strengthens.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey </a></b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>The much better-than-expected August jobs report demonstrates that the economy is solidly improving but still has a long way to go. The U.S. dollar Index is up strongly today on the news but is still woefully below its 200-day average at levels last seen in May 2018 (DXY early this AM 92.82, post-report 93.07; 200-day av. 96.34). The S&P 500 made new all-time highs this week even with an S&P 500 volatility Index (VIX) above 20. The benchmark index pulled back significantly yesterday and is falling in morning trading with a VIX now above 30. We remain in a mix of domestic and geopolitical uncertainty that is supportive of gold price.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Comex Gold has certainly been challenged lately and is down post-report but I believe it will remain in a trading range, established in August between $1,874 per ounce (8/12) and $2,025 (8/18), as headlines ebb and flow into the coming Presidential election. I believe it likely that gold will move up to the mean of this range next week or $1,950 per ounce. In my view, $2,200 is still in the cards if there is a breakout from this range.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Notably the gold-to-silver ratio is very near its 10-year average and is showing signs of short-term stability. If gold moves to $1,950, silver will follow at $27.17 per ounce </i>[see Silver Watch below]<i>.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>The benchmark 10-year Treasury demonstrates that inflation expectations, although contained, are still ahead of yields (10-year real rate = -1.03%). A non-interest earning asset like gold prospers in that environment. </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Three conditions for higher gold remain since gold's recent record price:</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><i>There remains plenty of domestic and geo-political uncertainty: U.S. elections, a stalled recovery package in Congress, a pervasive coronavirus infection in the U.S., the potential for civil unrest and escalating U.S./China tensions continue to be concerns causing investors to seek safe-havens.</i></li><li><i>With the euro above 1.18 EURUSD, a weakened dollar boosts dollarized commodities like gold. The fortunes of the U.S. currency grow dimmer with more expected Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury largesse. </i></li><li><i>U.S. real rates are continuing to be negative (see above) </i></li></ol></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.
</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated and included near the bottom of the blog (new location).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog). Mark Twain cautiously reminds us, 'History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.' October-December 1918 were a bad months for Eureka County that had escaped the U.S. spring wave that year followed by an August surge. Take covid-19 seriously, pardner.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE RECORD GOLD PRICE?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The new all-time Comex gold record is $2,089.2 (December contract)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">What makes a record gold price? There are many correct answers to this question, different answers but no less true. Some folks refer to the spot gold price on a particular day others futures prices. They may cite a closing or intraday number. For the purposes of this report, the "<b>all-time record" refers to the highest intraday price on the Comex futures exchange for the most active front-month contract.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The old record was $1,923.7 per ounce.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">That occurred on Tuesday, September 6, 2011. I reported on the record intraday price the following day in this <i>Eureka Miner</i>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-trips-copper-oil-bounce.html"><b>Gold Trips; Copper & Oil Bounce</b></a> (<i>Eureka Miner</i>, 9/7/2011)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE INFLATION-ADJUSTED 2011 GOLD RECORD? [Updated for latest CPI]</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">You can bring the 2011 gold record forward in time by using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The government data is easily accessible on the internet. The numbers below were taken from a chart provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in a database called <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL"><b>FRED (<u>F</u>ederal <u>R</u>eserve <u>E</u>conomic <u>D</u>ata)</b></a>. Here's the formula, the latest monthly data is through <b>July 2020</b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold Record (2011) x [CPI (7/2020)/CPI (9/2011)] = </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">$1,923.7/t-oz x [<b>258.723</b>/226.597] = <b>$2,196/t-oz</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An even easier method is to use one of the many <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">inflation calculators</a> on the internet that use CPI. <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">This link</a> takes you to one provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>$2,200 is therefore a reasonable next target for gold price this year if you believe, as the ole Colonel, that the rally continues.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Copper & China Updates</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex copper is above the key $3.0-level, presently trading at <b>$3.0515 per pound.</b> Improving Chinese demand and mining supply restrictions have kept prices up but don't expect gangbuster prices with much of the world still suffering economically from the coronavirus. Here's the latest from <a href="http://Mining.com">Mining.com</a>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Copper-Prices-Rally-On-Chinese-Panic-Buying.html"><b>Copper Prices Rally On Chinese Panic Buying</b></a> (8/30/2020)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). <b>A LOW NUMBER IS GOOD</b>. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dYxFWFQfUvE/X1Jujf3H2bI/AAAAAAAAoq8/g4IJMklOE1gWby1FxFGe-v6Q8L1Mfi9kQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/C2rDI%2B%252809-04-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dYxFWFQfUvE/X1Jujf3H2bI/AAAAAAAAoq8/g4IJMklOE1gWby1FxFGe-v6Q8L1Mfi9kQCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/C2rDI%2B%252809-04-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 1.0750 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and below the 6-year average<b> (0.78)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic has stabilized in China. Let's keep an eye for any moves higher given any renewed U.S./China tensions or virus outbreaks (click on chart for larger size). <b><span style="color: red;">The latest sharp increase is worrying but has stalled this week.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night which is Monday morning at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i><br /></i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EN_IiOjt7ig/X1JvSdIaZsI/AAAAAAAAorE/CEceLRTDTIgB_flGRZnNCWKdcp86BkC4gCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Weekly%2BSummary%2B%252809-04-2020%2529-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1405" data-original-width="1500" height="375" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EN_IiOjt7ig/X1JvSdIaZsI/AAAAAAAAorE/CEceLRTDTIgB_flGRZnNCWKdcp86BkC4gCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h375/Weekly%2BSummary%2B%252809-04-2020%2529-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bSfe1vwqNKw/X1Jvez_iGCI/AAAAAAAAorI/FYDMrNXf-o0KOkpf2p1KAfvx9AxdngwKgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252809-04-2020%2529-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1058" data-original-width="1500" height="283" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bSfe1vwqNKw/X1Jvez_iGCI/AAAAAAAAorI/FYDMrNXf-o0KOkpf2p1KAfvx9AxdngwKgCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h283/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252809-04-2020%2529-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex silver is above <b>$26 per ounce. </b>Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver when the Lustrous One rallies.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 71.76 silver is close to its 10-year average relative to gold</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The 10-year average GSR is <b>69.5 ounce per ounce</b>.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Importantly, the GSR has broken a long-term trend of higher-lows established April 2011 - a very bullish indication for silver.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex silver closed at a new high of <b>$29.216</b> (August 10). Please checkout my Kitco commentary: </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">(click on image for larger size)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zKTX4glUIYw/X1Jv2RGHfYI/AAAAAAAAorU/KIHfwQSIhNc2OrH8fZEgHTIA4WwOD6QOgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/GSR%2B%252809-04-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1090" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zKTX4glUIYw/X1Jv2RGHfYI/AAAAAAAAorU/KIHfwQSIhNc2OrH8fZEgHTIA4WwOD6QOgCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/GSR%2B%252809-04-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold fell from its high but then bullishly reversed higher. It is showing signs of strengthening. Beta tells you how gains (losses) in gold are related to gains (losses) in silver. You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies. For example, a beta of 2.0 implies a 1% bump in gold price should yield a 2% jump for silver. Peaks in beta typically occur near highs and lows.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qZyWb4EyEg0/X1JwGXE01jI/AAAAAAAAorc/7gbtowY9o-g2meiCgsavzMbs9KkQa2jZACNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Au-Ag%2BBeta%2B%252809-04-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1150" data-original-width="1500" height="306" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qZyWb4EyEg0/X1JwGXE01jI/AAAAAAAAorc/7gbtowY9o-g2meiCgsavzMbs9KkQa2jZACNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h306/Au-Ag%2BBeta%2B%252809-04-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Silver-to-Gold Beta (3-month base)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Historical note:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Stay tuned.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher - <b>yesterday's number was 1.65%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see <b>Weekly Summary Charts</b>) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HA8RutjUyyY/X1JwWplfWVI/AAAAAAAAork/QNUCAMayS1w-sQkaBo1qCkbw9Gebfd_qgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252809-04-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HA8RutjUyyY/X1JwWplfWVI/AAAAAAAAork/QNUCAMayS1w-sQkaBo1qCkbw9Gebfd_qgCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252809-04-2020%2529.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"> <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"> <i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NhUHD4sv4No/X1Jwh6-ZpII/AAAAAAAAoro/KS1iSYwZOcEjKew0R4_vUb4lXgwXKQaFwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/AUSP%2B%252809-04-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1086" data-original-width="1500" height="290" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NhUHD4sv4No/X1Jwh6-ZpII/AAAAAAAAoro/KS1iSYwZOcEjKew0R4_vUb4lXgwXKQaFwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h290/AUSP%2B%252809-04-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5610 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning <b>(last Friday AM in parentheses)</b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>U.S.A. 6,153,735 (</b><b>5,884,174</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 186,834 (</b><b>181,092</b><b>) deaths</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Grim comparison: <span style="color: red;">3.2 x the U.S. soldiers who died in Vietnam (1964-1975: 58,220 deaths)</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Nevada 67,220 (</b><b>67,220 </b><b>) covid-19 cases; 1,271 (</b><b>1,271</b><b>) deaths</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The Nevada daily <span style="color: red;">positivity rate is HIGH at 11.8%</span> (</b><b><span style="color: red;">14.7%</span></b><b>), Target < 5%, <span style="color: #6aa84f;">the g<span>ood news is that the positivity rate is falling from the 14-15% range</span></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #6aa84f;"><span><br /></span></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>7 (5) confirmed cases in Eureka County</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Grim milestone: <span style="color: red;">Nevada deaths exceed those of Japan (1,363 vs. 1,339)</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: red;">Japan has 44-times more people than Nevada</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Face masks and social distancing are currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Stay safe and distant my friends, wear a mask in public.</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Earlier this year I researched old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. I didn't find any newspaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). I found four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That was seven total for the County. Since then, excellent research by Rhonda Shangle Gardener shows a much higher confirmed death count of 38 which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I was informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Rhonda Shangle Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Shangle Gardner)</b></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Cheers,</div><div><br />Colonel Possum & Mariana<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div></div>colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-57966746472334626352020-08-28T11:28:00.005-07:002020-08-31T12:58:38.116-07:00Gold & Silver Mojo: $1,983, $27.99; Crisis in the Morning & Several More after Lunch<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kTnRhlzGtS0/X0k2zieOAWI/AAAAAAAAons/_sjShSrcxIcG7ATsKTqNeWO2NQRkVFVfwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1203/Hurricane%2BLaura%2Bfrom%2Bspace%2B%25233.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="1203" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kTnRhlzGtS0/X0k2zieOAWI/AAAAAAAAons/_sjShSrcxIcG7ATsKTqNeWO2NQRkVFVfwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Hurricane%2BLaura%2Bfrom%2Bspace%2B%25233.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><i><b>Historic Hurricane Laura</b></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>CAT 4 at landfall, Biggest storm since 1856 for Lake Charles, LA</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="clear: both;"><br /></div><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, August 28, 2020 AM</i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>***</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,980 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $27.94 per ounce</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free Press, 6/4/2020)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1342/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="356" data-original-width="1342" height="106" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-nvWDPwPVI/X0k3tF6D4lI/AAAAAAAAon0/2ZzylB51xcALtrLMVmtFIkbklqFvxbzRwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h106/Au%252C%2BAg%2BRecords%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Morning Miners!</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"> Barrick's CEO Mark Bristow was recently asked on CNBC Business News about mining and dealing with covid-19. He said, "Look, I grew up in Africa where you have one crisis in the morning and several more after lunch for good measure!" </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">That's the way 2020 is playing out. You may remember my sweetheart Mariana is in Franklin, Louisiana. Bayouland was targeted this week by two hurricanes Marco and Laura just several days apart. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This isn't our first rodeo with big twirlers but you never grow complacent about the potential devastation they can bring. Over 111 hours, the ole Colonel plotted data points from the National Hurricane Center at 3 hour intervals. For each point, I calculated the distance margin from the hurricane center to her mother's house - local folks affectionately call it "Mama-T's." Here's a plot from my analysis (click on image for larger size):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oTC5lIUOWNI/X0lHtUxr4dI/AAAAAAAAopQ/q82ytxR10uYS_RI3qWSCq4PtFA4nMAIzQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Hurricanes%2BLaura%2B%2526%2BMarco%2B%252808-27-2020%2529%2B1000%2BCDT%2Blandfall.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1022" data-original-width="1500" height="272" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oTC5lIUOWNI/X0lHtUxr4dI/AAAAAAAAopQ/q82ytxR10uYS_RI3qWSCq4PtFA4nMAIzQCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h272/Hurricanes%2BLaura%2B%2526%2BMarco%2B%252808-27-2020%2529%2B1000%2BCDT%2Blandfall.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Hurricane Marco, a decaying CAT 1 storm, landed at the mouth of the Mississippi 150 miles east of Mama-T's. Hurricane Laura, a monster CAT 4, landed in Cameron, LA 108 miles west. Fortunately, Mariana and that grand 120-year old house got through the ordeal in good shape. Last July, Hurricane Barry came with 33 miles - we lost some trees on that one. Phew, now the markets...thankfully not in crisis this week...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex gold and silver regained some mojo in the morning touching $1,983 and $27.99 per ounce respectively. As I mentioned last week, I submitted a column entitled "Gold and Silver Reach for The Sky." It will appear next week in the Fall Edition Mining Quarterly and the Elko Daily Free Press. In that piece, I explain why gold is headed for $2,200-plus before the end-of-the year; silver should score $32. It could be bumpy ride, but we're going higher.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here's where we we're trading, pulling back just a notch from earlier highs (Weekly summaries below are recorded near the market open, 6:30 Eureka Time):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> gold is presently trading at <b>$1,979.7 per ounce</b> (9:35 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December </b>Silver is currently trading at <b>$27.85 per ounce</b> (9:35 am Eureka Time). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> copper is presently <b>$3.0160 per pound </b>(9:35 am Eureka Time)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-08-28/Rising-investor-sentiment-looks-for-gold-to-retest-2-000-next-week-gold-bears-have-fled-Wall-Street.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey </a></b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>After reaching historic highs in-early August followed by a sharp decline, Comex December gold is trading up a welcome 1% for the week. The U.S. Federal Reserve again signaled "lower-for-longer" interest rates and entertained that the wage/inflation relation is broken, presumably allowing inflation to rise higher before mitigation. Both viewpoints set a nice price floor for precious metals. Although future inflation may be low in absolute terms, as long as inflation expectations exceed benchmark interest rates, a non-interest earning asset like gold prospers.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Consider this: in one week the 10-year inflation expectation popped 11 basis points (bps); and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, 8 bps </i>[see Inflation chart below]<i>. Both are good moves up but inflation is staying ahead pushing negative real rates even lower. Currently the 10-year real rate is a negative 1% and the 5-yr is a surprisingly negative 1.4%.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Another driver of inflation is rising commodity prices - the raw inputs to manufacturing. Copper is finally above $3 per pound and the Bloomberg broader commodity index (BCOM) has rallied 23% from late-April, albeit from a low base (e.g., oil is still in the low-$40s). If wages are not expected to rise quickly, consumer prices may increase just enough to keep real rates in negative territory for an extended time.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>It is likely Comex gold will see $1,980 per ounce next week and silver $27.94 per ounce. My target for 2020 remains unchanged at $2,200 for gold and $32 for silver </i>[see silver Watch below].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Three conditions for higher gold remain since gold's record: </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><i>There remains plenty of domestic and geo-political uncertainty: U.S. elections, a stalled recovery package in Congress, an out-of-control virus in the U.S., the potential for civil unrest and escalating U.S./China tensions continue to be concerns causing investors to seek safe-havens.</i></li><li><i>With the euro above 1.18 EURUSD, a weakened dollar boosts dollarized commodities like gold. The fortunes of the U.S. currency grow dimmer with more expected Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury largesse.</i></li><li><i>U.S. real rates are continuing to be negative (see above).</i></li></ol></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">In July, Mariana and I completed a seven-state tour of some of the worst hit areas in the United States. Day-by-day accounts of our travels can be found on my twitter feed <i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>.</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog). Mark Twain cautiously reminds us, 'History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.' October-December 1918 were a bad months for Eureka County that had escaped the U.S. spring wave that year followed by an August surge. Take covid-19 seriously, pardner.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE RECORD GOLD PRICE?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The new all-time Comex gold record is $2,089.2 (December contract)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">What makes a record gold price? There are many correct answers to this question, different answers but no less true. Some folks refer to the spot gold price on a particular day others futures prices. They may cite a closing or intraday number. For the purposes of this report, the "<b>all-time record" refers to the highest intraday price on the Comex futures exchange for the most active front-month contract.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The old record was $1,923.7 per ounce.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">That occurred on Tuesday, September 6, 2011. I reported on the record intraday price the following day in this <i>Eureka Miner</i>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-trips-copper-oil-bounce.html"><b>Gold Trips; Copper & Oil Bounce</b></a> (<i>Eureka Miner</i>, 9/7/2011)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE INFLATION-ADJUSTED 2011 GOLD RECORD?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">You can bring the 2011 gold record forward in time by using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The government data is easily accessible on the internet. The numbers below were taken from a chart provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in a database called <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL"><b>FRED (<u>F</u>ederal <u>R</u>eserve <u>E</u>conomic <u>D</u>ata)</b></a>. Here's the formula, the latest monthly data is through June 2020:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold Record (2011) x [CPI (6/2020)/CPI (9/2011)] = </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">$1,923.7/t-oz x [257.214/226.597] = <b>$2,183.62/t-oz</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An even easier method is to use one of the many <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">inflation calculators</a> on the internet that use CPI. <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">This link</a> takes you to one provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>$2,200 is therefore a reasonable next target for gold price this year if you believe, as the ole Colonel, that the rally continues.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning <b>(last Friday AM in parentheses)</b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>U.S.A. 5,884,174 (</b><b>5,584,154</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 181,092 (</b><b>174,442</b><b>) deaths</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Grim comparison: <span style="color: red;">3.1 x the U.S. soldiers who died in Vietnam (1964-1975: 58,220 deaths)</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Nevada 67,220 (</b><b>63,584</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 1,271 (</b><b>1,172</b><b>) deaths</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The Nevada daily <span style="color: red;">positivity rate is HIGH at 14.7%</span> (15.0%), Target < 5%</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>5 (5) confirmed cases in Eureka County</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Grim milestone: <span style="color: red;">Nevada deaths now exceed those of Japan (1,271 vs. 1,251)</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: red;">Japan has 44-times more people than Nevada</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Face masks and social distancing are currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Stay safe and distant my friends, wear a mask in public.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><i>Copper & China Updates</i></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex copper is above the key $3.0-level, presently trading at <b>$3.0160 per pound.</b> Improving Chinese demand and mining supply restrictions have kept prices up but don't expect gangbuster prices with much of the world suffering economically from the coronavirus.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). <b>A LOW NUMBER IS GOOD</b>. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4PjAKhvjo04/X0k8JqtJk9I/AAAAAAAAooA/prHeZxWvdY0FtHC8wd_iWMb3mTXaHzjqgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/C2rDI%2B%252808-27-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4PjAKhvjo04/X0k8JqtJk9I/AAAAAAAAooA/prHeZxWvdY0FtHC8wd_iWMb3mTXaHzjqgCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/C2rDI%2B%252808-27-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 1.0396 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and below the 6-year average<b> (0.79)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic has stabilized in China. Let's keep an eye for any moves higher given any renewed U.S./China tensions or virus outbreaks (click on chart for larger size). <b><span style="color: red;">The sharp increase this week is worrying.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night which is Monday morning at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i><br /></i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5JWWnif49r0/X0k9pRPfFlI/AAAAAAAAooM/21twQ9zMN1kkfAULwqZeLj4rEpky-SKTwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Weekly%2BSummary%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1409" data-original-width="1500" height="376" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5JWWnif49r0/X0k9pRPfFlI/AAAAAAAAooM/21twQ9zMN1kkfAULwqZeLj4rEpky-SKTwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h376/Weekly%2BSummary%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xVF_Xd_4fE8/Xz_0z0RXgEI/AAAAAAAAomQ/BkqpkOqAlVU8tybUs5qS7Z4jbyOaI9QigCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252808-21-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1056" data-original-width="1500" height="282" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xVF_Xd_4fE8/Xz_0z0RXgEI/AAAAAAAAomQ/BkqpkOqAlVU8tybUs5qS7Z4jbyOaI9QigCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h282/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252808-21-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex silver is above <b>$27 per ounce. </b>Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver when the Lustrous One rallies.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 70.87 silver is close to its 10-year average relative to gold</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The 10-year average GSR is <b>69.5 ounce per ounce</b>.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Importantly, the GSR has broken a long-term trend of higher-lows established April 2011 - a very bullish indication for silver.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex silver closed at a new high of <b>$29.216</b> (August 10). Please checkout my Kitco commentary: </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">(click on image for larger size)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GvEV6PCun8g/X0k-Pm537MI/AAAAAAAAooU/QRvlTIRu9n8ubc0K_upLufAF7nJvCsk4gCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/GSR%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1090" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GvEV6PCun8g/X0k-Pm537MI/AAAAAAAAooU/QRvlTIRu9n8ubc0K_upLufAF7nJvCsk4gCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/GSR%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold had fallen from its high but then bullishly reversed higher. It is showing signs of strengthening. Beta tells you how gains (losses) in gold are related to gains (losses) in silver. You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies. For example, a beta of 2.0 implies a 1% bump in gold price should yield a 2% jump for silver. Peaks in beta typically occur near highs and lows.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2Kq3mJRtADw/X0k-c0R8YZI/AAAAAAAAooY/vfDTFGPS6igV707Wr90L3pt_xDu25hYLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Ag-Au%2BBeta%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1150" data-original-width="1500" height="307" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2Kq3mJRtADw/X0k-c0R8YZI/AAAAAAAAooY/vfDTFGPS6igV707Wr90L3pt_xDu25hYLQCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h307/Ag-Au%2BBeta%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Silver-to-Gold Beta (3-month base)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Historical note:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Stay tuned.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher - <b>yesterday's number was 1.73%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see <b>Weekly Summary Charts</b>) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BN4Bh1AG3bQ/X0lA8mLfuMI/AAAAAAAAoo8/aaUWqlER_iIG2T2gqxXULbJYBHbtB8M7ACNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252808-27-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BN4Bh1AG3bQ/X0lA8mLfuMI/AAAAAAAAoo8/aaUWqlER_iIG2T2gqxXULbJYBHbtB8M7ACNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252808-27-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"> <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"> <i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-97aIUphyCMU/X0lBMg4RO4I/AAAAAAAAopE/MLJtDfs2KDk-MrV8LG8OrTdMhfLdosEXgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/AUSP%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1086" data-original-width="1500" height="289" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-97aIUphyCMU/X0lBMg4RO4I/AAAAAAAAopE/MLJtDfs2KDk-MrV8LG8OrTdMhfLdosEXgCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h289/AUSP%2B%252808-28-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5630 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Earlier this year I researched old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. I didn't find any newspaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). I found four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That was seven total for the County. Since then, excellent research by Rhonda Shangle Gardener shows a much higher confirmed death count of 38 which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I was informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Rhonda Shangle Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Shangle Gardner)</b></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Cheers,</div><div><br />Colonel Possum & Mariana<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div></div>colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-77637426297987966362020-08-21T10:29:00.006-07:002020-08-21T10:35:49.568-07:00Gold $1,946; Nevada Vanadium Hosts Open House at Fairgrounds 8/25<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pHg4RABAO20/Xz_tg-H0YQI/AAAAAAAAol4/6PxfvplcVp8sMDiv7Xz9iKULqrj1bkuXwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Nevada%2BVanadium%2B8%2B25%2B2020%2BOpen%2BHouse%2BFlyer.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="844" data-original-width="1500" height="225" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pHg4RABAO20/Xz_tg-H0YQI/AAAAAAAAol4/6PxfvplcVp8sMDiv7Xz9iKULqrj1bkuXwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h225/Nevada%2BVanadium%2B8%2B25%2B2020%2BOpen%2BHouse%2BFlyer.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><i><b>Vanadium - A strategic & critical mineral</b></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><i><b>important to our future</b></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Nevada Vanadium</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="clear: both;"><br /></div><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, August 21, 2020 AM</i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>***</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,960 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $26.56 per ounce</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free Press, 6/4/2020)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qlZfz9Vt_ME/XzC9nFbLuuI/AAAAAAAAoi4/PTetlOXKd-0PCPcZy4YtY9Gy6zpDIBWJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1200/Record%2BTable%2B4-in%2BW.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="318" data-original-width="1200" height="87" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qlZfz9Vt_ME/XzC9nFbLuuI/AAAAAAAAoi4/PTetlOXKd-0PCPcZy4YtY9Gy6zpDIBWJACNcBGAsYHQ/w328-h87/Record%2BTable%2B4-in%2BW.jpg" width="328" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Morning Miners!</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">First things first. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Ron Espell informs me that Nevada Vanadium is hosting an open house of their Gibellini Project at the Eureka County Fairgrounds next Tuesday, August 25. Ron is a familiar face in Northern Nevada mining and is presently a key player in the development of the Gibellini Project in the southern part of Eureka County. Vanadium is a strategic and critical mineral important to our future. More on this later - Ron will be sending me a copy of the presentation materials.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">More potholes for gold and silver this week but both ride on good suspensions and will recover to rally higher. As I mentioned last week, the ole Colonel submitted a column entitled "Gold and Silver Reach for The Sky." It will appear early-September in the Fall Edition Mining Quarterly and the Elko Daily Free Press. In that piece, I explain why gold is headed for $2,200-plus before the end-of-the year; silver should score $32. It could be bumpy ride, but we're going higher.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here's where we we're trading this morning (Weekly summaries below are recorded near the market open):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> gold is presently trading at <b>$1,945.9 per ounce</b> (8:54 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December </b>Silver is currently trading at <b>$26.93 per ounce</b> (8:54 am Eureka Time). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> copper is presently <b>$2.9380 per pound </b>(8:54 am Eureka Time)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Thi is how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-08-21/Gold-price-action-next-week-is-a-coin-toss-among-analysts.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey </a></b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>After reaching historic highs two weeks ago, Comex December gold is trading down again for the week. Although the weekly drop this morning is less than last Friday, the lustrous metal finds itself under a variety of pressures. Inklings of better economic prospects like the upbeat flash PMI and a slightly less dovish read from the Federal Reserve have underpinned some selling. However, this morning's intraday low ($1,916.6) is above the 8/12 low ($1,874.2) and the gold-to-silver (GSR) ratio is still near its 10-year average - both demonstrate resilience in precious metals.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>If a trend of higher-lows continues, I believe $2,200 per ounce gold remains in the cards for 2020 with a possible run at $32 per ounce for the white metal.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Also, yields have fallen away from the recent 8-week high for the 10-year Treasury. Importantly, 10-year inflation expectations are trending higher (1.62% as of Thursday) maintaining real rates around negative 1% (-0.99%, 5-year -1.26%). This is quite bullish for a non-interest earning asset like gold.
It is likely </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Comex gold will see $1,960 next week and silver $26.56 </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Three of my four conditions for higher gold remain since gold's record: </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><i>There remains plenty of domestic and geo-political uncertainty: U.S. elections, a stalled recovery package in Congress, an out-of-control virus in the U.S., the potential for civil unrest and escalating U.S./China tensions continue to be concerns causing investors to seek safe-havens.</i></li><li><i>With the euro still near 1.18 EURUSD, a weakened dollar boosts dollarized commodities like gold. The fortunes of the U.S. currency grow dimmer with more expected Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury largesse. Also, there is a differential between countries recovering successfully from covid-19 (like China, Japan and Germany) and a still struggling U.S.</i></li><li><i>U.S. real rates are continuing to be negative (see above)</i></li></ol></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>A fourth condition noting a high persistent correlation with the broader commodity index has weakened and is thus removed as a key driver.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">In July, Mariana and I completed a seven-state tour of some of the worst hit areas in the United States. Day-by-day accounts of our travels can be found on my twitter feed <i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>.</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog). Mark Twain cautiously reminds us, 'History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.' October-December 1918 were a bad months for Eureka County that had escaped the U.S. spring wave that year followed by an August surge. Take covid-19 seriously, pardner.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE RECORD GOLD PRICE?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The new all-time Comex gold record is $2,089.2 (December contract)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">What makes a record gold price? There are many correct answers to this question, different answers but no less true. Some folks refer to the spot gold price on a particular day others futures prices. They may cite a closing or intraday number. For the purposes of this report, the "<b>all-time record" refers to the highest intraday price on the Comex futures exchange for the most active front-month contract.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The old record was $1,923.7 per ounce.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">That occurred on Tuesday, September 6, 2011. I reported on the record intraday price the following day in this <i>Eureka Miner</i>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-trips-copper-oil-bounce.html"><b>Gold Trips; Copper & Oil Bounce</b></a> (<i>Eureka Miner</i>, 9/7/2011)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE INFLATION-ADJUSTED 2011 GOLD RECORD?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">You can bring the 2011 gold record forward in time by using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The government data is easily accessible on the internet. The numbers below were taken from a chart provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in a database called <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL"><b>FRED (<u>F</u>ederal <u>R</u>eserve <u>E</u>conomic <u>D</u>ata)</b></a>. Here's the formula, the latest monthly data is through June 2020:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold Record (2011) x [CPI (6/2020)/CPI (9/2011)] = </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">$1,923.7/t-oz x [257.214/226.597] = <b>$2,183.62/t-oz</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An even easier method is to use one of the many <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">inflation calculators</a> on the internet that use CPI. <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">This link</a> takes you to one provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>$2,200 is therefore a reasonable next target for gold price this year if you believe, as the ole Colonel, that the rally continues.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning <b>(last Friday AM in parentheses)</b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>U.S.A. 5,584,154 (</b><b>5,258,056</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 174,442 (</b><b>167,298</b><b>) deaths</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Nevada 63,584 (</b><b>58,650</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 1,172 (</b><b>1,030</b><b>) deaths</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The Nevada daily <span style="color: red;">positivity rate is HIGH at 15.0%</span> (14.2%, Target < 5%)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>5 (4) confirmed cases in Eureka County</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Grim milestone: <span style="color: red;">Nevada deaths nearly equal those of Japan (1,172 vs. 1,175)</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: red;">Japan has 44-times more people than Nevada</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Face masks and social distancing are currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Stay safe and distant my friends, wear a mask in public.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><i>Copper &China Updates</i></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex copper is above the $2.9-level occasionally breaking the mercurial $3 per pound, presently trading at <b>$2.9380 per pound.</b> <span style="color: #38761d;"><b><span>On Wedensday (8/19), Comex December copper closed at $3.038</span> </b>- that's a good sign!</span> Improving Chinese demand and mining supply restrictions have kept prices up but don't expect gangbusters with much of the world suffering economically from the coronavirus.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here's a recent column from <b><a href="http://Mining.com">Mining.com</a></b> More columns this week <i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>.</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-booming-metal-imports-an-echo-of-the-last-crisis/">China’s booming copper imports an echo of the last crisis</a> </b>(Mining.com, 8/13/2020)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). <b>A LOW NUMBER IS GOOD</b>. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fnm6VSxL-cY/Xz_0ALFc2fI/AAAAAAAAomE/nEzc7C6RfrA7bOPUC9M61OOjwu22BINjwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/C2rDI%2B%252808-21-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fnm6VSxL-cY/Xz_0ALFc2fI/AAAAAAAAomE/nEzc7C6RfrA7bOPUC9M61OOjwu22BINjwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/C2rDI%2B%252808-21-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 0.4701 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and below the 6-year average<b> (0.79)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic has stabilized in China. Let's keep an eye for any moves higher given any renewed U.S./China tensions or virus outbreaks (click on chart for larger size). <b>The little pop this week is somewhat worrying.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night which is Monday morning at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i><br /></i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hGwvb7KOd0g/Xz_0qi7LYTI/AAAAAAAAomM/7t3xpv9Zg5wMLWKvxc3oS-vQgyTzG9yoACNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Weekly%2BSummary%2B%252808-21-2020%2529-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1317" data-original-width="1500" height="351" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hGwvb7KOd0g/Xz_0qi7LYTI/AAAAAAAAomM/7t3xpv9Zg5wMLWKvxc3oS-vQgyTzG9yoACNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h351/Weekly%2BSummary%2B%252808-21-2020%2529-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xVF_Xd_4fE8/Xz_0z0RXgEI/AAAAAAAAomQ/BkqpkOqAlVU8tybUs5qS7Z4jbyOaI9QigCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252808-21-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1056" data-original-width="1500" height="282" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xVF_Xd_4fE8/Xz_0z0RXgEI/AAAAAAAAomQ/BkqpkOqAlVU8tybUs5qS7Z4jbyOaI9QigCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h282/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252808-21-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex silver is above <b>$26 per ounce. </b>Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver when the Lustrous One rallies.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 73.80 silver is close to its 10-year average relative to gold</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The 10-year average GSR is <b>69.5 ounce per ounce</b>.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Importantly, the GSR has broken a long-term trend of higher-lows established April 2011 - a very bullish indication for silver.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex silver closed at a new high of <b>$28.40</b> (August 6). Please checkout my Kitco commentary: </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">(click on image for larger size)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_SlW2IFbB-0/Xz_1Oqe9u8I/AAAAAAAAomg/B8_k_0apd80l9xQPyCuIOvZjKxFXIu3YgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/GSR%2B%252808-21-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1090" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_SlW2IFbB-0/Xz_1Oqe9u8I/AAAAAAAAomg/B8_k_0apd80l9xQPyCuIOvZjKxFXIu3YgCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/GSR%2B%252808-21-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold has fallen away from its lofty perch but then bullishly reversed higher. It is showing some signs of flattening. Beta tells you how gains (losses) in gold are related to gains (losses) in silver. You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies. For example, a beta of 2.0 implies a 1% bump in gold price should yield a 2% jump for silver. Peaks in beta typically occur near highs and lows.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-stshL_DWB_0/Xz_1qoyjCdI/AAAAAAAAomo/rBgziqvwKtchFx07yQbosw53nUz6bCO2gCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Ag-Au%2BBeta%2B%252808-21-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1150" data-original-width="1500" height="307" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-stshL_DWB_0/Xz_1qoyjCdI/AAAAAAAAomo/rBgziqvwKtchFx07yQbosw53nUz6bCO2gCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h307/Ag-Au%2BBeta%2B%252808-21-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Silver-to-Gold Beta (3-month base)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Historical note:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Stay tuned.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher - <b>yesterday's number was 1.62%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see <b>Weekly Summary Charts</b>) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-i2Cce9XrZt0/Xz_2DHrYx9I/AAAAAAAAom0/MpLI_n0K7A83cUgbWsIx7saYfdAoL162gCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252808-20-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-i2Cce9XrZt0/Xz_2DHrYx9I/AAAAAAAAom0/MpLI_n0K7A83cUgbWsIx7saYfdAoL162gCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252808-20-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"> <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"> <i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RLBVpV2vo4g/Xz_2WEJPaLI/AAAAAAAAonA/xqNOPbF2354C6ugUDjT2e6dDXIPpsuPNwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/AUSP%2B%252808-21-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1086" data-original-width="1500" height="289" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RLBVpV2vo4g/Xz_2WEJPaLI/AAAAAAAAonA/xqNOPbF2354C6ugUDjT2e6dDXIPpsuPNwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h289/AUSP%2B%252808-21-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5728 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Earlier this year I researched old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. I didn't find any newspaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). I found four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That was seven total for the County. Since then, excellent research by Rhonda Shangle Gardener shows a much higher confirmed death count of 38 which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I was informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Rhonda Shangle Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Shangle Gardner)</b></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Cheers,</div><div><br />Colonel Possum & Mariana<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div></div>colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-75020700510778564812020-08-14T10:54:00.005-07:002020-08-14T15:34:00.223-07:00Gold Tries $1,970, Pulls Back on Rough Week; $2,200 for 2020<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KtKfc-c-uW8/Xza2hnazdSI/AAAAAAAAojc/1iJwdJQbYyA01XPIEfNEsJefM9Ew0TEPQCNcBGAsYHQ/s2024/1-Compressed%2Bair%2Btanks.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1518" data-original-width="2024" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KtKfc-c-uW8/Xza2hnazdSI/AAAAAAAAojc/1iJwdJQbYyA01XPIEfNEsJefM9Ew0TEPQCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h300/1-Compressed%2Bair%2Btanks.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>Compressed Air Tanks</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Eureka-Croesus Mine, Eureka, Nevada</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/blasts-from-the-past-major-henry-g-catlin-and-the-eureka-croesus-revival/article_d5eac5ee-e751-57f6-896b-256ca368338c.html#:~:text=A%20new%20mine%20is%20named,produce%20wealth%20befitting%20mythical%20royalty.">Major Henry G. Catlin and the Eureka-Croesus Revival </a></b><br /><b>(R. Baker, Elko Daily Free Press, 3/3/2015)</b><br /><br /></div><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, August 14, 2020 AM</i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>***</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,980 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $27.29 per ounce</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free Press, 6/4/2020)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qlZfz9Vt_ME/XzC9nFbLuuI/AAAAAAAAoi4/PTetlOXKd-0PCPcZy4YtY9Gy6zpDIBWJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1200/Record%2BTable%2B4-in%2BW.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="318" data-original-width="1200" height="87" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qlZfz9Vt_ME/XzC9nFbLuuI/AAAAAAAAoi4/PTetlOXKd-0PCPcZy4YtY9Gy6zpDIBWJACNcBGAsYHQ/w328-h87/Record%2BTable%2B4-in%2BW.jpg" width="328" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Morning Miners!</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Monday the ole Colonel submitted a column entitled "Gold and Silver Reach for The Sky." It will appear later this summer in the Fall Edition Mining Quarterly and the Elko Daily Free Press. In that piece, I explain why gold is headed for $2,200-plus before the end-of-the year; silver should score $32. It won't be a straight line, pardner, but we're going higher.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This week was a good example of bad deals in the game for both metals. Comex Gold folded his cards below $1,900 at $1,874 on Wednesday. Silver gave up in the mid-$23s. Fortunately, this wasn't at the close and the next deal gave both a good hand. The Lustrous One finished the day at $1,949 about where we are this morning. Silver smiled at $25.98, less than a buck down from this morning's price. To give this perspective checkout the little chart above of new records set last week.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is a bullish indication for both metals - they call such days, "flushing out the weak hands." When buyers rush in with high volume to buy dips, there is more sky above. Comex gold made a try at <b>$1,970</b> earlier this morning but has since pulled back.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here's where we we're trading (Weekly summaries below were recorded near the market open):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> gold is presently trading at <b>$1,951.9 per ounce</b> (9:13 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>September </b>Silver is currently trading at <b>$26.75 per ounce</b> (9:13 am Eureka Time). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> copper is presently <b>$2.8825 per pound </b>(9:12 am Eureka Time)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-08-14/After-major-gold-price-drama-bullish-sentiment-still-looks-at-2-000-and-beyond-Kitco-s-gold-survey.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>After making an all-time record last week, Comex gold fell 5% this week and lost relative value broadly across major currencies, key commodities and stock indexes </i>[see Weekly Summaries below]<i>. However, the yellow metal bounced off its weekly low ($1,874.2) with gusto signaling there is more rally ahead. Although it won't be a straight line, I believe it likely that gold will make $2,200-plus for 2020 with silver following at $32.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Much has been said about the 8-week highs for the 10-year Treasury yield and that a rise in interest rates is a threat to gold. Importantly, 10-year inflation expectations rose too (1.67% as of Thursday) maintaining real rates around negative 1% (-0.98%, 5-year -1.28%). This is still quite bullish for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>It is likely Comex gold will see $1,980 next week and silver $27.29
My conditions list for gold has not changed much from last week: </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><i>There remains plenty of domestic and geo-political uncertainty: U.S. elections, a stalled recovery package in Congress, an out-of-control virus in the U.S., the potential for civil unrest and escalating U.S./China tensions continue to be concerns causing investors to seek safe-havens.</i></li><li><i>With the euro still at 1.18 EURUSD, a weakened dollar boosts dollarized commodities like gold. The fortunes of the U.S. currency grow dimmer with more expected Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury largesse. Also, there is an increasing differential between countries recovering successfully from covid-19 (like China, Japan and Germany) and a still struggling U.S. </i></li><li><i>High and persistent correlations of gold continue with the Bloomberg broader commodity index (BCOM) as well as the euro and Japanese yen. This is not only evidence of a weakening U.S. dollar but carries a whiff of inflation as raw material input costs rise for American producers.</i></li><li><i>U.S. real rates are continuing to be negative (see above</i><i>) </i></li></ol></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">In July, Mariana and I completed a seven-state tour of some of the worst hit areas in the United States. Day-by-day accounts of our travels can be found on my twitter feed <i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>.</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog). Mark Twain cautiously reminds us, 'History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.' October-December 1918 were a bad months for Eureka County that had escaped the U.S. spring wave that year followed by an August surge. Take covid-19 seriously, pardner.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE RECORD GOLD PRICE?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The new all-time Comex gold record is $2,089.2 (December contract)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">What makes a record gold price? There are many correct answers to this question, different answers but no less true. Some folks refer to the spot gold price on a particular day others futures prices. They may cite a closing or intraday number. For the purposes of this report, the "<b>all-time record" refers to the highest intraday price on the Comex futures exchange for the most active front-month contract.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The old record was $1,923.7 per ounce.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">That occurred on Tuesday, September 6, 2011. I reported on the record intraday price the following day in this <i>Eureka Miner</i>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-trips-copper-oil-bounce.html"><b>Gold Trips; Copper & Oil Bounce</b></a> (<i>Eureka Miner</i>, 9/7/2011)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE INFLATION-ADJUSTED 2011 GOLD RECORD?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">You can bring the 2011 gold record forward in time by using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The government data is easily accessible on the internet. The numbers below were taken from a chart provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in a database called <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL"><b>FRED (<u>F</u>ederal <u>R</u>eserve <u>E</u>conomic <u>D</u>ata)</b></a>. Here's the formula, the latest monthly data is through June 2020:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold Record (2011) x [CPI (6/2020)/CPI (9/2011)] = </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">$1,923.7/t-oz x [257.214/226.597] = <b>$2,183.62/t-oz</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An even easier method is to use one of the many <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">inflation calculators</a> on the internet that use CPI. <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">This link</a> takes you to one provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>$2,200 is therefore a reasonable next target for gold price this year if you believe, as the ole Colonel, that the rally continues.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning <b>(last Friday AM in parentheses)</b>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>U.S.A. 5,258,056 (</b><b>4,888,070</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 167,298 (</b><b>160,157</b><b>) deaths</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Nevada 58,650 (</b><b>53,557</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 1,030 (</b><b>900</b><b>) deaths</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The Nevada daily positivity rate is HIGH at 14.2% (Target < 5%)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>4 (3) confirmed cases in Eureka County</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Face masks and social distancing are currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Stay safe and distant my friends, wear a mask in public.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><i>Copper &China Updates</i></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex copper is showing resilience but still under the $2.9-level, presently trading at <b>$2.8825 per pound.</b> Improving Chinese demand and mining supply restrictions have kept prices up but don't expect gangbusters with much of the world suffering economically from the coronavirus.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here's a recent column from <b><a href="http://Mining.com">Mining.com</a></b> More columns this week <i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>.</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-booming-metal-imports-an-echo-of-the-last-crisis/">China’s booming copper imports an echo of the last crisis</a> </b>(Mining.com, 8/13/2020)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). <b>A LOW NUMBER IS GOOD</b>. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YsQiRKfHgk8/Xza-m7EVIKI/AAAAAAAAojo/8tBM1huZAEY7o6WkPQUgz1sYc2opyGNZACNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/C2rDI%2B%252808-14-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="769" data-original-width="1500" height="205" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YsQiRKfHgk8/Xza-m7EVIKI/AAAAAAAAojo/8tBM1huZAEY7o6WkPQUgz1sYc2opyGNZACNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h205/C2rDI%2B%252808-14-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 0.21676 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and below the 6-year average<b> (0.79)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic has stabilized in China. Let's keep an eye for any moves higher given any renewed U.S./China tensions or virus outbreaks (click on chart for larger size). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night which is Monday morning at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i><br /></i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PU6T76PCNx8/Xza_ORkJk4I/AAAAAAAAojw/Rh5XOzm_IQE_1JkmNxM5qMfCFnWRg2nqACNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Weekly%2BSummary%2B%252808-14-2020%2529-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1388" data-original-width="1500" height="370" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PU6T76PCNx8/Xza_ORkJk4I/AAAAAAAAojw/Rh5XOzm_IQE_1JkmNxM5qMfCFnWRg2nqACNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h370/Weekly%2BSummary%2B%252808-14-2020%2529-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-770cwdoj76g/Xza_ZmEs_EI/AAAAAAAAoj0/ZgazGhlnKks5FdmnTPlXulCrT7PEn3XIwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252808-14-2020%2529-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1092" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-770cwdoj76g/Xza_ZmEs_EI/AAAAAAAAoj0/ZgazGhlnKks5FdmnTPlXulCrT7PEn3XIwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252808-14-2020%2529-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex silver is above <b>$26 per ounce. </b>Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver when the Lustrous One rallies.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 72.66 silver is nearing its 10-year average relative to gold</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The 10-year average GSR is <b>69.5 ounce per ounce</b>.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Importantly, the GSR has broken a long-term trend of higher-lows established April 2011 - a very bullish indication for silver.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex silver closed at a new high of <b>$28.40</b> (August 6). Please checkout my Kitco commentary: </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">(click on image for larger size)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yjDgySv18MU/XzbAfali6BI/AAAAAAAAokA/DTB7usr1AakqTYWKLgOxoS4TzKnD43e5wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/GSR%2B%252808-14-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1088" data-original-width="1500" height="290" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yjDgySv18MU/XzbAfali6BI/AAAAAAAAokA/DTB7usr1AakqTYWKLgOxoS4TzKnD43e5wCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h290/GSR%2B%252808-14-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold has fallen away from its lofty perch but has now bullishly reversed higher. You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies. Peaks in beta typically occur near highs and lows.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gpySpjxe0ag/XzbA3WyC2AI/AAAAAAAAokI/V151Zj2nnSgBHQ68IQL5TYtmA4cHtL76gCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Ag-Au%2BBeta%2B%252808-14-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1168" data-original-width="1500" height="311" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gpySpjxe0ag/XzbA3WyC2AI/AAAAAAAAokI/V151Zj2nnSgBHQ68IQL5TYtmA4cHtL76gCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h311/Ag-Au%2BBeta%2B%252808-14-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Silver-to-Gold Beta (3-month base)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Historical note:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Stay tuned.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher - <b>yesterday's number was 1.67%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see <b>Weekly Summary Charts</b>) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0UTuaXmzyeg/XzbBVnj-cdI/AAAAAAAAokQ/7K1xvRTq18sbfHP-i499tAhfadlJJZdHwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252808-13-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1089" data-original-width="1500" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0UTuaXmzyeg/XzbBVnj-cdI/AAAAAAAAokQ/7K1xvRTq18sbfHP-i499tAhfadlJJZdHwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252808-13-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"> <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"> <i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41gTZsHgfxA/XzbBt2Ce01I/AAAAAAAAokY/FkRM3NhGzHQwcoI5qw8KGNMo-MqnEO0DwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/AUSP%2B%252808-14-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1087" data-original-width="1500" height="290" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41gTZsHgfxA/XzbBt2Ce01I/AAAAAAAAokY/FkRM3NhGzHQwcoI5qw8KGNMo-MqnEO0DwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h290/AUSP%2B%252808-14-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5816 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Earlier this year I researched old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. I didn't find any newspaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). I found four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That was seven total for the County. Since then excellent research by Rhonda Shangle Gardener shows a much higher confirmed death count of 38 which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I was informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Rhonda Shangle Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Shangle Gardner)</b></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Cheers,</div><div><br />Colonel Possum & Mariana<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div></div>colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-4559385818091009122020-08-07T11:05:00.005-07:002020-08-09T20:26:00.873-07:00Gold Touches $2,089.2, Silver $29.92; July Jobs Relief But...<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NMwrngacXtw/Xy2Dg3sP-dI/AAAAAAAAohI/80KbV_4M3bAurzOCCACC8cSBy2ZK2iTvwCNcBGAsYHQ/s2024/1-Ingersoll-Rand%2B2-stage%2Bcompressor.JPG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1518" data-original-width="2024" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NMwrngacXtw/Xy2Dg3sP-dI/AAAAAAAAohI/80KbV_4M3bAurzOCCACC8cSBy2ZK2iTvwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h300/1-Ingersoll-Rand%2B2-stage%2Bcompressor.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>Ingersol-Rand 2-Stage Compressor</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Eureka-Croesus Mine, Eureka, Nevada</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/blasts-from-the-past-major-henry-g-catlin-and-the-eureka-croesus-revival/article_d5eac5ee-e751-57f6-896b-256ca368338c.html#:~:text=A%20new%20mine%20is%20named,produce%20wealth%20befitting%20mythical%20royalty.">Major Henry G. Catlin and the Eureka-Croesus Revival </a></b><br /><b>(R. Baker, Elko Daily Free Press, 3/3/2015)</b><br /><br /></div><b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, August 7, 2020 AM</i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b>***</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $2,100 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $24.90 per ounce</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free Press, 6/4/2020)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qlZfz9Vt_ME/XzC9nFbLuuI/AAAAAAAAoi4/PTetlOXKd-0PCPcZy4YtY9Gy6zpDIBWJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1200/Record%2BTable%2B4-in%2BW.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="318" data-original-width="1200" height="87" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qlZfz9Vt_ME/XzC9nFbLuuI/AAAAAAAAoi4/PTetlOXKd-0PCPcZy4YtY9Gy6zpDIBWJACNcBGAsYHQ/w328-h87/Record%2BTable%2B4-in%2BW.jpg" width="328" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Morning Miners!</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The morning release of the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm"><b>monthly jobs report</b></a> showed a gain of 1.8 million jobs with headline unemployment falling to 10.2%. This is how far we've come on that measure with the year starting at the 3.6%-level:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">March 4.4%</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">April 14.7%</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">May 13.3%</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">June 11.1%</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">July 10.2%</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">One economist reminds us that 5 million folks have left the workforce and the economy has a lot more work to do. Nonetheless, progress is always welcome news. With bars and restaurants re-closing in many hard hit areas, the upcoming August report may put a dent in the following leisure and hospitality numbers:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 592,000, <b><u>accounting for about one-third
of the gain in total nonfarm employment in July</u></b>. Employment in food services and drinking
places rose by 502,000, following gains of 2.9 million in May and June combined. Despite
the gains over the last 3 months, employment in food services and drinking places is down
by 2.6 million since February. Over the month, employment also rose in amusements,
gambling, and recreation (+100,000).</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex gold traded higher to <b>$2,089.2 per ounce</b> to set a new all-time record (see the explanation below for what makes a record). That happened at 5 pm EDT yesterday but will be counted as an August 7 intraday high because the trade occurred after the normal session.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Silver has got back on its feet with a closing high of <b>$28.400 per ounce </b>yesterday followed by an intraday high of <b>$29.915</b> in overnight trading. Please checkout my latest Kitco column:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"> <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>December</b> gold is presently trading at <b>$2,037.70 per ounce</b> (9:32 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>September </b>Silver is currently trading at <b>$27.98 per ounce</b> (9:32 am Eureka Time). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex <b>September</b> copper is presently <b>$2.8005 per pound </b>(9:32 am Eureka Time)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-08-07/Surging-interest-in-gold-keeps-price-rally-alive-but-bearish-sentiment-is-creeping-in-Kitco-s-gold-survey.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>This week Comex gold made a new all-time high of $2,089.2 per ounce. Gold has retreated some after this morning's July jobs report added more jobs than expected but also suggested the pace of recovery has stalled. I believe conditions are such that the lustrous metal will be re-energized next week to take on the $2,100-level with silver taking another shot at $30 per ounce. Why? </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><i>There remains plenty of domestic and geo-political uncertainty. U.S. elections, a stalled recovery package in Congress, spreading coronavirus that dampens U.S. economic recovery, the potential for civil unrest and rapidly escalating U.S./China tensions (now exacerbated by bans on TikTok and WeChat) continue to be concerns causing investors to seek safe-havens.</i></li><li><i>With the euro at 1.18 EURUSD and the Japanese yen returned to 105 USDJPY, a weakened dollar boosts dollarized commodities like gold. The fortunes of the U.S. currency grow dimmer with more expected Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury largesse. Also, there is an increasing differential between countries recovering successfully from covid-19 (like China, Japan and Germany) and a still struggling U.S. </i></li><li><i>Notably, there continue very high and persistent correlations of gold with the Bloomberg broader commodity index (BCOM) as well as the euro and Japanese yen. This is not only evidence of a weakening U.S. dollar but carries a whiff of inflation as raw material input costs rise for American producers.</i></li><li><i>U.S. real rates are continuing to become more negative, a bullish trend for non-interest earning assets like gold. The 5-year real rate is below -1.3% this week with the 10-year at -1.1%. Global yields are also in decline, another bullish indication for gold.</i></li></ol></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>Comex silver has regained momentum after a pause making a new high yesterday ($29.915) with bullish reversal higher in the 3-month beta with gold (x2.71). The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) is closing in quickly on its 10-year average (72.7 vs. 69.5) - another bullish indication.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">In July, Mariana and I completed a seven-state tour of some of the worst hit areas in the United States. Day-by-day accounts of our travels can be found on my twitter feed <i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>.</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE RECORD GOLD PRICE?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The new all-time Comex gold record is $2,089.2 (December contract)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">What makes a record gold price? There are many correct answers to this question, different answers but no less true. Some folks refer to the spot gold price on a particular day others futures prices. They may cite a closing or intraday number. For the purposes of this report, the "<b>all-time record" refers to the highest intraday price on the Comex futures exchange for the most active front-month contract.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The old record was $1,923.7 per ounce.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">That occurred on Tuesday, September 6, 2011. I reported on the record intraday price the following day in this <i>Eureka Miner</i>:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-trips-copper-oil-bounce.html"><b>Gold Trips; Copper & Oil Bounce</b></a> (<i>Eureka Miner</i>, 9/7/2011)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>WHAT IS THE INFLATION ADJUSTED 2011 GOLD RECORD?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">You can bring the 2011 gold record forward in time by using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The government data is easily accessible on the internet. The numbers below were taken from a chart provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in a database called <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL"><b>FRED (<u>F</u>ederal <u>R</u>eserve <u>E</u>conomic <u>D</u>ata)</b></a>. Here's the formula, the latest monthly data is through June 2020:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Gold Record (2011) x [CPI (6/2020)/CPI (9/2011)] = </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">$1,923.7/t-oz x [257.214/226.597] = <b>$2,183.62/t-oz</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An even easier method is to use one of the many <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">inflation calculators</a> on the internet that use CPI. <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">This link</a> takes you to one provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>$2,200 is therefore a reasonable next target for gold price this year if you believe, as the ole Colonel, that the rally continues.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning (last Friday AM in parentheses):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>U.S.A. 4,888,070 (</b><b>4,496,737</b><b> </b><b>) covid-19 cases; 160,157 (</b><b>152,074</b><b> </b><b>) deaths</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Nevada 53,557 (</b><b>46,824 </b><b>) covid-19 cases; 900 (</b><b>801</b><b>) deaths</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The Nevada daily positivity rate is high at 16.5%</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Face masks and social distancing are currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Stay safe and distant my friends, wear a mask in public.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex copper is struggling to regain the $2.9-level, presently trading at <b>$2.8005 per pound.</b> Improving Chinese demand and mining supply restrictions have kept prices up but don't expect gangbusters with much of the world suffering economically from the coronavirus.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here's a recent column from <b><a href="https://www.economist.com/">The Economist</a></b> on a subject recently discussed <i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>.</b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/07/23/unusually-copper-and-gold-prices-are-rising-in-tandem">Unusually, copper and gold prices are rising in tandem</a> (The Economist, 7/23/2020)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>That trend has now reversed with gold falling out of correlation with copper - a potentially bearish indication.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading down at $41.55 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> negative $37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, <b>4/20/2020</b>.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). <b>A LOW NUMBER IS GOOD</b>. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fs8sjh_jBIg/Xy2GIE3pYGI/AAAAAAAAohU/dH5iGGv7MpYVhg9Gqu0vY-EFH94-EqluQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/C2rDI%2B%252808-07-2020%2529.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="745" data-original-width="1500" height="203" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fs8sjh_jBIg/Xy2GIE3pYGI/AAAAAAAAohU/dH5iGGv7MpYVhg9Gqu0vY-EFH94-EqluQCNcBGAsYHQ/w410-h203/C2rDI%2B%252808-07-2020%2529.jpg" width="410" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 0.21232 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and below the 6-year average<b> (0.79)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China and their economy recently reported a positive 3.2% annualized GDP. Let's keep an eye for any moves higher given any renewed U.S./China tensions or virus outbreaks (click on chart for larger size). <b>The dramatic fall in one month from the 6/15/20 peak (1.3875) is a bullish indication for copper. However, re-emerging U.S./China tensions could cause a bearish move higher. There is a slight tick up as copper moves away from gold and the Chinese currency from a correlation standpoint. </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night which is Monday morning at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i><br /></i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lBXqHCQpo9A/Xy2HvT4k7PI/AAAAAAAAoho/e5PeoZe8vCE67ZPgRrA8fzmja9HR4YlkQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Weekly%2BSummary%2B%252808-07-2020%2529.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1406" data-original-width="1500" height="384" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lBXqHCQpo9A/Xy2HvT4k7PI/AAAAAAAAoho/e5PeoZe8vCE67ZPgRrA8fzmja9HR4YlkQCNcBGAsYHQ/w410-h384/Weekly%2BSummary%2B%252808-07-2020%2529.jpg" width="410" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-86Fwb_CyJOw/Xy2H9dHbWCI/AAAAAAAAohs/YgZcBl54uk8gpzEEUJW3kBM_BHjdHtbswCNcBGAsYHQ/s2048/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252808-07-2020%2529.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1445" data-original-width="2048" height="283" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-86Fwb_CyJOw/Xy2H9dHbWCI/AAAAAAAAohs/YgZcBl54uk8gpzEEUJW3kBM_BHjdHtbswCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h283/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252808-07-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex silver is above <b>$28 per ounce. </b>Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver when the Lustrous One rallies.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 72.66 silver is dropping towards its 10-year average relative to gold</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The 10-year average GSR is <b>69.5 ounce per ounce</b>.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Importantly, the GSR has broken a long-term trend of higher-lows established April 2011 - a very bullish indication for silver.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Comex silver closed yesterday at a new high of <b>$28.40</b> (8/6). Please checkout my Kitco commentary: </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">(click on image for larger size)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RVmfR2r1CUM/Xy2JqRmrBNI/AAAAAAAAoh8/DzLf8CMPCOwVGhpT-hvLyG7Uo6eFG2dJgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/GSR%2B%252808-07-2020%2529.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1087" data-original-width="1500" height="298" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RVmfR2r1CUM/Xy2JqRmrBNI/AAAAAAAAoh8/DzLf8CMPCOwVGhpT-hvLyG7Uo6eFG2dJgCNcBGAsYHQ/w410-h298/GSR%2B%252808-07-2020%2529.jpg" width="410" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold has fallen away from its lofty perch but now has reversed higher. You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies. Peaks in beta typically occur near highs and lows.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_42DzU_41jc/Xy2KPqQNBdI/AAAAAAAAoiE/7DrZ3PQgynEaEnblEo5cjKeCddp-4yPPACNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Ag-Au%2BBeta%2B%252808-07-2020%2529.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1150" data-original-width="1500" height="314" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_42DzU_41jc/Xy2KPqQNBdI/AAAAAAAAoiE/7DrZ3PQgynEaEnblEo5cjKeCddp-4yPPACNcBGAsYHQ/w410-h314/Ag-Au%2BBeta%2B%252808-07-2020%2529.jpg" width="410" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Silver-to-Gold Beta (3-month base)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Historical note:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Stay tuned.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher - <b>yesterday's number was 1.63%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see <b>Weekly Summary Charts</b>) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4O5uw_ibzBU/Xy2NhhRqSHI/AAAAAAAAoiQ/pETBQQcGH3sxQzCxUyNp8bF9b8E1NCqZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252808-06-2020%2529.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1087" data-original-width="1500" height="297" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4O5uw_ibzBU/Xy2NhhRqSHI/AAAAAAAAoiQ/pETBQQcGH3sxQzCxUyNp8bF9b8E1NCqZgCNcBGAsYHQ/w410-h297/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252808-06-2020%2529.jpg" width="410" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"> <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"> <i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: x-large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Tc_Xi7vhUuc/Xy2N0PN3NjI/AAAAAAAAoiY/WgwzBDd9mCoyfFd6jN9ekgGy985N6n2gwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1500/AUSP%2B%252808-07-2020%2529.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1086" data-original-width="1500" height="296" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Tc_Xi7vhUuc/Xy2N0PN3NjI/AAAAAAAAoiY/WgwzBDd9mCoyfFd6jN9ekgGy985N6n2gwCNcBGAsYHQ/w410-h296/AUSP%2B%252808-07-2020%2529.jpg" width="410" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.6178 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio is moving higher above that trend (red dotted line) - bullish gold!</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Earlier this year I researched old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. I didn't find any newspaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). I found four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That was seven total for the County. Since then excellent research by Rhonda Shangle Gardener shows a much higher confirmed death count of 38 which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I was informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Rhonda Shangle Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Shangle Gardner)</b></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Cheers,</div><div><br />Colonel Possum & Mariana<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div></div>colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-90280746052170025082020-07-31T10:15:00.001-07:002020-08-07T09:06:33.346-07:00New Gold Record Today $2,005.4; Silver Tops Out $26.28; Copper Resilient $2.9<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8ViXuxw_CtQ/XyQ09riYqVI/AAAAAAAAoe0/GshS-oHkxVYrzC81TkMWgD6s5nwDIrYMgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1-Eureka-Croesus%2BII%2B2015%2B042.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="698" data-original-width="880" height="316" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8ViXuxw_CtQ/XyQ09riYqVI/AAAAAAAAoe0/GshS-oHkxVYrzC81TkMWgD6s5nwDIrYMgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/1-Eureka-Croesus%2BII%2B2015%2B042.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><i>Pneumatic Hoist</i></b></div>
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<b>Eureka-Croesus Mine, Eureka, Nevada</b><br />
<b><a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/blasts-from-the-past-major-henry-g-catlin-and-the-eureka-croesus-revival/article_d5eac5ee-e751-57f6-896b-256ca368338c.html#:~:text=A%20new%20mine%20is%20named,produce%20wealth%20befitting%20mythical%20royalty.">Major Henry G. Catlin and the Eureka-Croesus Revival </a></b><br />
<b>(R. Baker, Elko Daily Free Press, 3/3/2015)</b><br />
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, July 31, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $2,000 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $24.20 per ounce</b></div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free Press, 6/4/2020)</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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<b>WHAT IS THE RECORD GOLD PRICE?</b></div>
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<b>Today, a new all-time Comex gold record was set at $2,005.4 (December contract)</b></div>
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What makes a record gold price? There are many correct answers to this question, different answers but no less true. Some folks refer to the spot gold price on a particular day others futures prices. They may cite a closing or intraday number. For the purposes of this report, the "<b>all-time record" refers to the highest intraday price on the Comex futures exchange for the most active front-month contract.</b></div>
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<b>The old record was $1,923.7 per ounce.</b></div>
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That occurred on Tuesday, September 6, 2011. I reported on the record intraday price the following day in this <i>Eureka Miner</i>:</div>
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<a href="http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-trips-copper-oil-bounce.html"><b>Gold Trips; Copper & Oil Bounce</b></a> (<i>Eureka Miner</i>, 9/7/2011)</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Morning Miners!</span></i></b></div>
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Comex gold rose above the mercurial $2,000-level this morning to set a new all-time record of <b>$2,005.4 per ounce</b> (see above explanation for what makes a record). That's something to celebrate!</div>
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Silver got its mojo earlier this week posting a closing high of <b>$24.501 per ounce </b>on Monday followed by an intraday high of <b>$26.275</b> on Tuesday. The ole Colonel thinks that's it for a time as I explain in my latest Kitco column:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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I believe we're in the third turn (What's that? Read the column, pardner!)</div>
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Comex <b>August</b> gold is presently trading at <b>$1,989.6 per ounce</b> (9:11 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> </span></div>
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Comex <b>September </b>Silver is currently trading at <b>$24.22 per ounce</b> (9:12 am Eureka Time). </div>
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Comex <b>September</b> copper is presently <b>$2.8820 per pound </b>(9:12 am Eureka Time). Copper has been resilient around $2.9 since mid-July (see below).</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-07-31/-2-000-could-be-a-barrier-for-gold-price-as-sentiment-weakens-among-Wall-Street-analysts.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div>
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<i>Today as Comex gold crests $2,000 per ounce on an intraday basis for a new all-time high, it continues to be an excellent environment for the yellow metal. </i></div>
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<i>There is plenty of domestic and geo-political uncertainty. U.S. elections, an out of control virus in The U.S. that dampens economic recovery, the potential for civic unrest and rapidly escalating U.S./China tensions continue to be a few of the concerns causing investors to seek safe-havens.</i></div>
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<i>As the euro breaks 1.18 EURUSD, a weak dollar boosts dollarized commodities like gold. The fortunes of the U.S. currency grow dimmer with more expected Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury largesse. Also there is an increasing differential between countries recovering successfully from covid-19 (like China, Japan and Germany) and a still struggling U.S.</i></div>
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<i>Notably, there are very high and persistent correlations of gold (i.e.>0.9 on an absolute basis) with the Bloomberg broader commodity index (BCOM) as well as the euro and Japanese yen. This is not only evidence of a weakening U.S. dollar but carries a whiff of inflation as raw material input costs rise for American producers.</i></div>
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<i>U.S. real rates are continuing to become more negative, a bullish trend for non-interest earning assets like gold. The 5-year real rate is below -1.2% this week with the 10-year close to -1.0%. This week also witnessed a broad based decline in global yields, another bullish indication for gold.*</i></div>
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<i>Comex silver has put in its top at least for now ($26.275 intraday, 7/28) with a declining 3-month beta less than 3.0 and a gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) very near its long-term trendline of higher-lows established in April 2011.** </i></div>
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<i>I believe gold needs to close at or above $2,000 next week to maintain its momentum; silver will follow at $24.20 per ounce.</i></div>
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<i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div>
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* U.S. 5-yr real rate -1.19% ,U.S. 10-yr real rate -.98%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.53%, France -0.20% and Japan 0.01% </div>
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** GSR=82.60, 3-month, beta(Au,Ag) = 2.81 (last week 3.20)</div>
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Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below.</div>
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In July, Mariana and I completed a seven-state tour of some of the worst hit areas in the United States. Day-by-day accounts of our travels can be found on my twitter feed <i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>.</b></i></div>
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The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog).</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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The website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning (last Friday AM in parentheses):</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 4,496,737 (</b><b>4,070,480</b><b> </b><b>) covid-19 cases; 152,074 (</b><b>144,734 </b><b>) deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 46,824 (</b><b>40,885</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 801 (</b><b>722</b><b>) deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Face masks and social distancing are currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends, wear a mask in public.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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Comex copper has been resiliently hovering around $2.9 since mid-July, presently trading at <b>$2.8820 per pound.</b> Improving Chinese demand and mining supply restrictions are keeping prices up but don't expect gangbusters with much of the world suffering economically from the coronavirus.</div>
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Here's a recent column from <b><a href="https://www.economist.com/">The Economist</a></b> on a subject recently discussed <i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>.</b></i></div>
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<b><a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/07/23/unusually-copper-and-gold-prices-are-rising-in-tandem">Unusually, copper and gold prices are rising in tandem</a> (The Economist, 7/23/2020)</b></div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading up at $40.35 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> negative $37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, <b>4/20/2020</b>.</div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). <b>A LOW NUMBER IS GOOD</b>. </div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 0.15304 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and below the 6-year average<b> (0.79)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China and their economy recently reported a positive 3.2% annualized GDP. Let's keep an eye for any moves higher given any renewed U.S./China tensions or virus outbreaks (click on chart for larger size). <b>The dramatic fall in one month from the 6/15/20 peak (1.3875) is a bullish indication for copper. However, re-emerging U.S./China tensions could cause a bearish move higher. </b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night which is Monday morning at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is above <b>$23 per ounce. </b>Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 82.60 silver is still historically cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Importantly, the GSR has broken a long-term trend of higher-lows established April 2011 - a very bullish indication for silver.</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at <b>69.4 ounce per ounce</b>.</div>
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It appears that Comex silver hit is closing high of <b>$24.501</b> on Monday (7/27) and closing intraday high of <b>$26.275</b> on Tuesday (7/28). That's likely it for a while as I explain in this Kitco commentary: </div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)<b> </b></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is falling away from its lofty perch. You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher. Peaks in beta typically occur near highs and lows.</span></b></div>
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<span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Q-8Rho35_UM/XyRJhqDNb9I/AAAAAAAAofc/X6z-iD_9rh4dSb73OLaDQBlimahRqlhyQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Ag-to-Au%2BBeta%2B%252807-31-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1150" data-original-width="1500" height="306" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Q-8Rho35_UM/XyRJhqDNb9I/AAAAAAAAofc/X6z-iD_9rh4dSb73OLaDQBlimahRqlhyQCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Ag-to-Au%2BBeta%2B%252807-31-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Silver-to-Gold Beta (3-month base)</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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Stay tuned.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher - <b>yesterday's number was 1.52%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see <b>Weekly Summary Charts</b>) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tS4SCeWfBZU/XyRLxP2hYuI/AAAAAAAAofo/xh-hWjRB18I29d5nX6aF2tpPrzg2acz3wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252807-31-2020%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1087" data-original-width="1500" height="288" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tS4SCeWfBZU/XyRLxP2hYuI/AAAAAAAAofo/xh-hWjRB18I29d5nX6aF2tpPrzg2acz3wCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252807-31-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.6076 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio is moving higher above that trend (red dotted line) - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-07-27/Is-silver-near-a-top.html">Is silver near a top?</a> </b>(7/27/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div>
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Earlier this year I researched old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. I didn't find any newspaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). I found four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That was seven total for the County. Since then excellent research by Rhonda Shangle Gardener shows a much higher confirmed death count of 38 which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I was informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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Rhonda Shangle Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span face="" style="font-family: arial; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Shangle Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-86462252434798718192020-07-24T12:13:00.000-07:002020-07-25T15:38:43.022-07:00Gold & Silver Reach for the Sky: $1,904.6 & $23.67<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SobIGiec3OI/Xxsh1fnx0OI/AAAAAAAAobY/EYIVwBiyRBAAEWLDN3hmSFEpQZ0xIq2AgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2015%2B-%2BEric%2Bphotos%2B009.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1068" data-original-width="1600" height="266" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SobIGiec3OI/Xxsh1fnx0OI/AAAAAAAAobY/EYIVwBiyRBAAEWLDN3hmSFEpQZ0xIq2AgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2015%2B-%2BEric%2Bphotos%2B009.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><i>Old School Mining - Euclid Haul Truck</i></b></div>
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<b>Windfall Mine, Eureka, Nevada</b><br />
[Photo by Eric Pastorino]</div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, July 24, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,930 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $23.44 per ounce</b></div>
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<a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free press, 6/4/2020)</div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a> (4/28/2020, Kitco News)</b><b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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<b>WHAT IS THE RECORD GOLD PRICE?</b></div>
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<b>[UPDATE: The Comex December contract closed at $1,925.2; the intraday high was $1,933.6, looks like a new record coming on board as the August contact rolls over] </b></div>
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There are many correct answers to this question, different answers but no less true. Some folks refer to the spot gold price on a particular day others futures prices. They may cite a closing or intraday number. For the purposes of this report, the "<b>all-time record" refers to the highest intraday price on the Comex futures exchange as recorded in continuous monthly charts which is $1,923.7 per ounce.</b></div>
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That occurred on Tuesday, September 6, 2011. I reported on the record intraday price the following day in this <i>Eureka Miner</i>:</div>
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<a href="http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-trips-copper-oil-bounce.html"><b>Gold Trips; Copper & Oil Bounce</b></a> (<i>Eureka Miner</i>, 9/7/2020)</div>
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Morning Miners!</div>
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The <i>Eureka Miner</i> has forecast for several months that gold was on a path to take out the 2011 all-time high. Well pardner, we're on the doorstep. Earlier this morning, Comex August gold peaked at <b>$1,904.6 per ounce</b>. Comex September silver got its mojo a little sooner touching <b>$23.67</b> per ounce on Wednesday. I expect gold to make a new record next week and silver to come in just below this week's high.</div>
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A cautionary note is that both metals appear to be in "overbought" territory suggesting consolidation before the next spurt higher. However, there is tremendous momentum behind these trades which encourages bidding the prices higher. With gold this close to its record, the ole Colonel bets momentum and "animal spirits" will prevail before any price retreat. Silver is a little trickier but heck we're over $20, that's something to be happy about! </div>
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Comex <b>August</b> gold is presently trading at <b>$1,897.9 per ounce</b> (8:44 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> </span></div>
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Silver rose with gold and some technical numbers for silver shine even brighter than last week [see Silver Watch below].</div>
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Comex <b>September </b>Silver is currently trading at <b>$22.97 per ounce</b> (11:18 am Eureka Time). </div>
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Comex <b>September</b> copper is presently <b>$2.8925 per pound </b>(11:18 am Eureka Time). Copper is slightly down for week [see Weekly Summaries below, recorded earlier this morning].</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h3hQsXnAu3U/Xxsyc6tNJiI/AAAAAAAAocs/SnOx6pzDxoUYdDEfJhDRcBDdsfk1HuHYQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2015%2B-%2BEric%2Bphotos%2B016-001.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="509" data-original-width="880" height="231" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h3hQsXnAu3U/Xxsyc6tNJiI/AAAAAAAAocs/SnOx6pzDxoUYdDEfJhDRcBDdsfk1HuHYQCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2015%2B-%2BEric%2Bphotos%2B016-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><i>Old School Mining - Windfall Pit</i></b></div>
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<b>Windfall Mine, Eureka, Nevada</b><br />
[Photos by Eric Pastorino]</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-07-24/The-gold-price-is-a-runaway-freight-train-so-look-for-higher-levels-next-week.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div>
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<i>As gold crests $1,900 per ounce courting the 2011 all-time high, it is hard to remember a better environment for the yellow metal. </i></div>
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<i>There is plenty of domestic and geo-political uncertainty. U.S. elections, an out-of-control virus in The U.S. that dampens economic recovery, the potential for civil disorder and rapidly escalating U.S./China tensions are a few of the concerns causing investors to seek safe-havens.</i></div>
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<i>As the euro breaks 1.16 USDEUR, a weak dollar boosts dollarized commodities like gold. The fortunes of the U.S. currency grow dimmer with more expected Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury largesse. Also there is an increasing differential between countries recovering successfully from covid-19 (like China, Japan and Germany) and a still struggling U.S. </i></div>
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<i>U.S. real rates are continuing to become more negative, a bullish trend for non-interest earning assets like gold. </i><i>The 5-year real rate is below -1% this week with the 10-year not far behind.* </i></div>
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<i>Silver continues in full gallop with a 3-month beta above 3.0 as the gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) breaks below a long-term trendline of higher-lows established in April 2011.</i></div>
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<i>I believe gold is on a path to take out the 2011 high with a target of $1,930 for next week. Silver will follow at $23.44 per ounce.
These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div>
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* U.S. 5-yr real rate -1.13% ,U.S. 10-yr real rate -.93%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.44%, France -0.14% and Japan 0.00% </div>
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** GSR=82.34</div>
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Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below.</div>
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Mariana and I just completed a seven-state tour of some of the worst hit areas in the United States. Day-by-day accounts of our travels can be found on my twitter feed <i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>.</b></i></div>
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The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog).</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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The website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning (last Friday AM in parentheses):</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 4,070,480 (</b><b>3,592,316 </b><b>) covid-19 cases; 144,734 (</b><b>138,543</b><b>) deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 40,885 (</b><b>31,915</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 722 (</b><b>626</b><b>) deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Face masks and social distancing are currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends, wear a mask in public.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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Comex copper is slightly down for the week, presently trading at <b>$2.8925 per pound. </b>Here's a recent column from <b><a href="https://www.economist.com/">The Economist</a></b> on a subject recently discussed <i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>.</b></i></div>
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<b><a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/07/23/unusually-copper-and-gold-prices-are-rising-in-tandem">Unusually, copper and gold prices are rising in tandem</a> (The Economist, 7/23/2020)</b></div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading up at $41.22 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> negative $37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, <b>4/20/2020</b>.</div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). <u>A low number is good</u>. A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 0.1974 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and below the 6-year average<b> (0.79)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China and their economy recently reported a positive 3.2% annualized GDP. Let's keep an eye for any moves higher given any renewed U.S./China tensions or virus outbreaks (click on chart for larger size). <b>The dramatic fall in one month from the 6/15/20 peak (1.3875) is a bullish indication for copper. However, re-emerging U.S./China tensions could cause a bearish move higher (red arrow).</b></div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night on the Monday Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ki3p93-jcLg/Xxsr9ycfgII/AAAAAAAAob4/dxnlngMCSXITnTN9ZS5aJxJDuOzDpYxSACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Weekly%2BSummary%2BCV%2B%252807-24-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1056" data-original-width="1500" height="281" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ki3p93-jcLg/Xxsr9ycfgII/AAAAAAAAob4/dxnlngMCSXITnTN9ZS5aJxJDuOzDpYxSACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Weekly%2BSummary%2BCV%2B%252807-24-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is above <b>$20 per ounce. </b>Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 82.34 silver is still historically cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Importantly, the GSR has broken a long-term trend of higher-lows established April 2011 - a very bullish indication for silver.</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at <b>69.4 ounce per ounce</b>.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is bullishly above unity at 3.31. You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher </span></b><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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Stay tuned.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher - <b>yesterday's number is 1.49%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see <b>Weekly Summary Charts</b>) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HWmkzV5Elpg/XxstYJm0LPI/AAAAAAAAocM/umiBYBefwe4p1AhPUFohHlWQQWdkRVxgQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252807-23-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1087" data-original-width="1500" height="288" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HWmkzV5Elpg/XxstYJm0LPI/AAAAAAAAocM/umiBYBefwe4p1AhPUFohHlWQQWdkRVxgQCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/10-yr%2BBreakeven%2B%252807-23-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5929 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio is moving higher above that trend (red dotted line) - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div>
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Earlier this year I researched old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. I didn't find any newspaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). I found four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That was seven total for the County. Since then excellent research by Rhonda Shangle Gardener shows a much higher confirmed death count of 38 which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I was informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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Rhonda Shangle Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Shangle Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-64666803728012193172020-07-17T09:47:00.000-07:002020-07-17T11:53:36.613-07:00Gold $1,812, At the Ready for $1,920; Silver Eyes $20, Copper $3<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SfLE94WT6cI/XxG38HLRTrI/AAAAAAAAoSM/ftj2I3Kb_rgDdVhZsIEdD_v-CZErfmLKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1207%2BMain%2BSt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="732" data-original-width="960" height="305" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SfLE94WT6cI/XxG38HLRTrI/AAAAAAAAoSM/ftj2I3Kb_rgDdVhZsIEdD_v-CZErfmLKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/1207%2BMain%2BSt.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><i>Safely in Louisiana</i></b></div>
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<b>Main Street, Franklin, LA</b></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, July 17, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,840 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $20.00 per ounce</b></div>
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<a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free press, 6/4/2020)</div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a> (4/28/2020, Kitco News)</b><b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Morning Miners!</div>
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The <i>Eureka Miner </i>returns after a one month hiatus. Mariana and I traveled from Eureka to her mother's house in Franklin, Louisiana. Although dear Mama-T passed several years ago the house still bears her name - a welcome respite in the time of coronavirus.</div>
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We planned our trip carefully travelling through Utah, Colorado, Navajo Nation, New Mexico and Texas. The most pleasant stay was at a 57-acre ranch of a good friend in Clyde, Texas (just outside Abilene). Habernero the Donkey was the first to greet me.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hPm44ivv3SI/XxHRa2XExvI/AAAAAAAAoUI/mKtmzat-a6wVmIEwVKhld2QWJQ-_bJagQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Habanero%2B%2528s%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hPm44ivv3SI/XxHRa2XExvI/AAAAAAAAoUI/mKtmzat-a6wVmIEwVKhld2QWJQ-_bJagQCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Habanero%2B%2528s%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Habanero the Donkey</b></div>
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We enjoyed a wonderful time in a very safe and creative environment.</div>
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<b>Mariana in the Art Park</b></div>
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The next day we shot across Texas like a rocket and arrived in bayouland as the sun went down. I left day-by-day accounts of our travels on my twitter feed <i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>.</b></i></div>
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Quite honestly, I haven't thought much about markets until the last several days. Metals, at least, are enjoying a July of falling U.S. dollar and recovering China (see below). As today's title suggests, I believe we are poised to take out the 2011 gold high, push silver above $20 per pound and copper over $3. The ole Colonel is headed for bull pasture with his metallic heroes,</div>
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Comex <b>August</b> gold is trading at <b>$1,812.70 per ounce</b> (8:44 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> It's at its daytime high.</span></div>
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Silver rose with gold and some technical numbers for silver continue to shine [see Silver Watch below].</div>
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Comex <b>September </b>Silver currently trading at <b>$19.75 per ounce</b> (8:44 am Eureka Time). </div>
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Comex <b>September</b> copper is presently <b>$2.9090 per pound </b>(8:44 am Eureka Time). Copper is steady for week [see Weekly Summaries below, recorded earlier this morning].</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-07-17/Gold-s-bull-run-isn-t-over-as-prices-consolidate-above-1-800-analysts.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div>
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<i>Why wouldn't you want to own gold? </i></div>
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<i>Gold finds itself in a bullish environment of negative real rates and a declining U.S. Dollar Index below its 200-day average. For a dollarized non interest-earning asset that's giddy-up go, especially if market participants continue to seek safe havens. Even though domestic stocks have rallied this week on new hopes for vaccines, the positive correlation of gold and equities suggests the former is being accumulated as a hedge if the latter falters. The even higher and persistent positive correlation of gold and copper underlines the relevance of a falling dollar and a recovering China whose demand for the red metal is strong and its currency has strengthened below 7 USDCNY.** </i></div>
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<i>Silver is in full gallop with a 3-month beta of 3.0 as the gold-to-silver ratio plummets.***
I believe gold is on a path to take out the $1,920+ 2011 high although the journey will not be a straight line. </i></div>
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<i>My August Comex gold target for next week is $1,840 per ounce with silver touching $20.00 per ounce. </i></div>
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<i>These are the strange times of coronavirus. </i></div>
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* U.S. 10-yr real rate -.84%, 10-year Inflation expectation 1.41%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.46%, France -0.15% and Japan 0.00%</div>
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** 1-month correlations rho (Au,SPX) = +0.61; rho(Au,Cu) =+0.86</div>
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*** GSR=91.88</div>
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Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below. The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog).</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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The website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning (last report, one month ago in parentheses):</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 3,592,316 (</b><b>2,196,998</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 138,543 (</b><b>113,899</b><b>) deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 31,915 (</b><b>12,486</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 626 (</b><b>461</b><b>) deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Face masks and social distancing are currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends, wear a mask in public.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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July Comex copper is steady for the week, presently trading at <b>$2.9090 per pound. </b>Here's a recent column from <a href="http://mining.com/"><b>Mining.com</b></a> showing that copper demand should is strong in China:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.mining.com/copper-price-near-2-year-high-after-chinese-imports-rocket/">Copper price near 2-year high after Chinese imports rocket</a> </b>(July 14, 2020)</div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading up at $40.80 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> negative $37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, <b>4/20/2020</b>.</div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). <u>A low number is good</u>. A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at an even lower 0.112 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and below the 6-year average<b> (0.79)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China and their economy recently reported a positive 3.2% annualized GDP. Let's keep an eye for any moves higher given any renewed U.S./China tensions or virus outbreaks (click on chart for larger size). <b>The dramatic fall in one month from the 6/15/20 peak (1.3875) is a bullish indication for copper.</b></div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night on the Monday Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UAFEySm93fA/XxHCsIOr6dI/AAAAAAAAoTM/y33F9aQdV288ju45bBf3zNbrZNmmcLnUwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Weekly%2BSummary%2B%252807-17-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1387" data-original-width="1500" height="368" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UAFEySm93fA/XxHCsIOr6dI/AAAAAAAAoTM/y33F9aQdV288ju45bBf3zNbrZNmmcLnUwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Weekly%2BSummary%2B%252807-17-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lntuHWW4jFY/XxHC7apOzMI/AAAAAAAAoTU/VCGaPYgBEbsCbbIkc2DEPkJ6DL0LuMBEACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Weekly%2BSummary%2BCV%2B%252807-17-2020%2529-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1171" data-original-width="1600" height="292" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lntuHWW4jFY/XxHC7apOzMI/AAAAAAAAoTU/VCGaPYgBEbsCbbIkc2DEPkJ6DL0LuMBEACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Weekly%2BSummary%2BCV%2B%252807-17-2020%2529-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is courting <b>$20 per ounce. </b>Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 91.88 silver is still historically cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at <b>68.6 ounce per ounce</b>.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is bullishly above unity at 3.00). You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher </span></b><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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Stay tuned.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher - <b>yesterday's number is 1.4 1%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see <b>Weekly Summary Charts</b>) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NN6gApwWmLc/XxHEq2mMC9I/AAAAAAAAoTw/D5ax_juolYshzeyymt0kZzvEsUMDq_AAACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/AUSP%2B%252807-17-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1087" data-original-width="1500" height="288" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NN6gApwWmLc/XxHEq2mMC9I/AAAAAAAAoTw/D5ax_juolYshzeyymt0kZzvEsUMDq_AAACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/AUSP%2B%252807-17-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5620 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio still maintains lots of daylight above that trend (red dotted line) - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div>
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Earlier this year I researched old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. I didn't find any newspaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). I found four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That was seven total for the County. Since then excellent research by Rhonda Shangle Gardener shows a much higher confirmed death count of 38 which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I was informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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Rhonda Shangle Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Shangle Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-22826881985221746572020-06-19T11:08:00.000-07:002020-06-19T22:53:01.276-07:00Gold $1,761 Bull Rally; Second Wave Fears vs Economic Optimism<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mztiVQpWwdw/XuzkP_MHOjI/AAAAAAAAjZs/PA7ujxy8r9Etj9lmpgITCiABYmacdDJhACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2015%2B-%2BWindfall%2B%2528M%2529%2B063.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="933" data-original-width="1024" height="363" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mztiVQpWwdw/XuzkP_MHOjI/AAAAAAAAjZs/PA7ujxy8r9Etj9lmpgITCiABYmacdDJhACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2015%2B-%2BWindfall%2B%2528M%2529%2B063.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><i>Northern Nevada Pastime - Looking at the Ground</i></b></div>
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<b>Windfall Pit, Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, June 19, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<b>"WARNING: Too quiet on the copper front? Red metal at currency-like volatility!" </b><i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i><b> March 4, 2020 [Comex copper fell into Bear Country March 13, 2020] </b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,760 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $18.13 per ounce</b></div>
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<a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free press, 6/4/2020)</div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a> (4/28/2020, Kitco News)</b><b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Morning Miners!</div>
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The <i>Eureka Miner </i>will be on break for a while as I drive my sweetheart to Louisiana for her annual summer hiatus. I look forward to driving through Utah, Navajo Nation, New Mexico and Texas to understand firsthand how the country is dealing with the coronavirus pandemic. I plan to post observations on my twitter feed <b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a> </b>- follow along if you like!</div>
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I'm 72 and Mariana and I plan to wear face coverings in public places. This has unfortunately become controversial for myriad reasons but there is now overwhelming evidence that it does effectively mitigate infection spread until a vaccine becomes widely available.</div>
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My best example is Japan. Surprisingly, this nation of islands has 38% as many people as the U.S. However, Japan has lost only 951 citizens to covid-19; the U.S has lost over 118,000. The Governor of Tokyo Yuriko Koike has a simple explanation for the difference, "We learned to wear masks in 1918."</div>
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In high-density Tokyo, social distancing is often impossible but roughly 90% of their citizens wear masks in public. It works.</div>
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Fortunately, Eureka County has had no confirmed cases of covid-19 or deaths. The same could be said during the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic, at least at first. Influenza (an early H1N1 variety) was first observed in January 1918. Eureka missed the first U.S. wave in the spring of that year and an August spike that followed. Then the virus moved in with a vengence from October through December spreading from ranches to sheep camps to mining camps. The young foreman of the Palisade Ranch near the mainline railroad was one of the first to die - it just takes one. There were re-occurrences in 1919 and 1922. Rhonda Shandler Gardner has studied the Eureka 1918 Influenza Pandemic in great detail. Here is a link to her findings:</div>
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<b style="font-family: arial; font-size: 16px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Shandler Gardner)</b></div>
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Hopefully history won't repeat but it should not be ignored. Stay safe my friends.</div>
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During this challenging period, investors have returned to safe-havens like gold and lightened up their "risk-on" assets like stocks. We're clearly early in the covid-19 game and I believe there is a still path to $1,800+ for 2020. The push-pull between equities and stocks will continue for some time. Here is my <a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/#tracking-source=main-nav"><b>Elko Daily Free Press</b></a> column on the subject submitted in May and posted early this month. It is also be included in the just released <a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/quarterly/"><b>Mining Quarterly</b></a>:</div>
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<a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free press, 6/4/2020)</div>
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Comex <b>August</b> gold is rally mode trading at <b>$1,753.3 per ounce</b> (10:42 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> It's pulled back some from an earlier high of <b>$1,760.9</b></span></div>
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Silver rose with gold and some technical numbers for silver continue to shine [see Silver Watch below].</div>
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Comex <b>September </b>Silver currently trading at <b>$18.01 per ounce</b> (10:41 am Eureka Time). </div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">Copper is showing some spark this morning: </span></div>
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Comex <b>September</b> copper is presently <b>$2.6235 per pound </b>(10:42 am Eureka Time). Copper is up over 1% this week [see Weekly Summaries below, recorded earlier this morning].</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-06-19/Wall-St-Main-St-upbeat-about-short-term-outlook-for-gold-prices.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div>
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<i>Comex up gold is up slightly for the week trading recently with low currency-like volatility (~1%). Here's another funny thing - stocks go up, gold goes up - the 5-day correlation with the S&P 500 is very high and positive (+0.82). Those two typically move in opposition during uncertain times, lately they have been traveling down the same road. </i></div>
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<i>Many of these behaviors can be explained by the developing tension between public health science and political expediency, at least in the U.S.
Accelerated re-opening of businesses supports a V-shaped recovery and this notion is allied by improving economic data. However, if re-opening shortcuts public health measures, the risk of a devastating second wave increases. This is evidenced by spiking infection rates and hospitalizations in some southern and western states.</i></div>
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<i>Stocks are propelled by the optimistic recovery scenario; safe-haven gold is underpinned by the possibility of the latter outcome.
From an interest rate viewpoint, real rates are bullishly and increasingly negative as inflation expectations continue to rise faster than Treasury yields. Japanese and European 10-year bonds have returned to negative territory which is also a bullish indication for gold.*
I believe gold is still on a path to $1,800 and higher this year but the journey will not be a straight line. My August Comex gold target for next week is $1,760 per ounce with silver following to $18.13 per ounce. </i></div>
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<i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div>
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* U.S. 10-yr real rate -.59%, 10-year Inflation expectation 1.28%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.41%, France -0.09% and Japan 0.00% [Source: Bloomberg News]</div>
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Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below. The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog).</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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The website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning (last week in parentheses):</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 2,196,998 (</b><b>2,027,521</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 118,519 (</b><b>113,899</b><b>) deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 12,486 (</b><b>10,678</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 478 (</b><b>461</b><b>) deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Face masks and social distancing are currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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July Comex copper is up 1% for the week, presently trading at <b>$2.6235 per pound. </b>Here's a recent column from <a href="http://mining.com/"><b>Mining.com</b></a> showing that copper demand should become strong in China:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.mining.com/copper-price-rally-builds-as-chinas-spending-balloons/">Copper price rally builds as China’s spending balloons</a> </b>(6/4/2020)</div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading up at $40.09 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> negative $37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, <b>4/20/2020</b>.</div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). <u>A low number is good</u>. A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). This low was replaced yesterday, <b>6/4/20, at 0.2351</b>. <b>This AM the indicator sits at 1.2168 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th but above the 5-year average<b> (0.78)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China, but let's keep an eye for any moves higher given recent U.S./China tensions (click on chart for larger size). <b><span style="color: #38761d;">This week's retreat from a recent high (1.3875) is encouraging especially given new covid-19 outbreaks in Beijing.</span></b></div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night on the Monday Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<b>To ponder:</b> In numerology the year 2020 reduces to the number 4 - a dreaded number in Chinese culture. And yes, it is the Year of the Rat...a double-whammy for sure.</div>
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Remember, you can register with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/"><b>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)</b></a> for updates by e-mail. Look at the situation summary tab on their website for updated U.S. infections and deaths.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is courting <b>$18 per ounce (see Weekly Summaries above).</b></div>
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Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 97.07 silver is historically very cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at <b>68.6 ounce per ounce</b>.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is bullishly above unity at 2.25 (i.e. on average, the daily % rise or fall of silver price is beta times the % change in gold price). You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher </span></b><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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Stay tuned.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher - <b>yesterday's number is 1.28%</b>. </div>
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Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see <b>Weekly Summary Charts</b>) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5537 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio still maintains lots of daylight above that trend (red dotted line) - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Six Things to Watch in 2020</span></i></b></div>
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The ole Colonel's beer bet <b>(won on an intraday basis Tuesday, January 7th!)</b>. I have since revised it [parenthesis]:</div>
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<b>Gold will break </b><b>[on a closing basis]</b><b> $1,600 per ounce before the 4th of July 2020</b></div>
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We'll keep the bet alive by looking at closing instead of intraday prices - what a sport! <b>[won on a closing basis February 18th]</b></div>
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My top six things to watch for 2020:</div>
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<li><b>Copper prices </b>- I'd like to see copper prices push us above $6,500 per tonne ($2.95 per pound). A fall below the $6,000-level ($2.72) would be a bad sign - for example, U.S./China trade Phase I in trouble or escalating geo-political unrest. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has pushed copper below $6,000 per tonne</b>].</li>
<li><b>Chinese yuan</b> - strengthening below 7 USDCNY is a good sign that their economy and trade are on an improving track (<i>Weekly Summary</i>). Sustained weakening above the 7-level is a red flag. <b>[Chinese yuan is above 7 USDCNY again]</b></li>
<li><b>U.S. dollar</b> - will it remain strong or begin a period of decline? Foreign demand for Treasury debt has kept the dollar strong but rising U.S. deficits and countries trying to move away from dollar dependence (e.g., China, Russia) are countervailing forces not to be ignored. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made its high September 30 this year and has been in a downtrend of lower-lows since (99.38 September high). This reports tracks the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) (27.01 September high, see <i>Weekly Summary</i> below for latest price). Finally, overseas interest in Treasurys has been fueled by negative interest rates abroad. This report monitors the German 10-year bund (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) as a benchmark for foreign Treasury demand. <b>[Update: Covid-19 has caused liquidations as market participants rush to the U.S. dollar for safety. This has surged the U.S. Dollar Index above 100]</b></li>
<li><b>Interest Rates</b> - there is an almost uncanny relationship between the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury and the copper-to-gold ratio (CGR, <i>Weekly Summary</i>). I've written about this extensively since 2017 ( see <i>The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries </i>below). <a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2019/12/gold-1520-silver-181-copper-225-giddy.html">Bottom line, a rising CGR signals higher interest rates for 2020.</a> [<b>Update: Covid-19 appears to have reversed the trend higher, 10-year Treasury is near record lows</b>].</li>
<li><b>Real rates </b>- The 10-year inflation adjusted Treasury yield, or real rate, is the difference between the nominal yield and inflation expectations (aka 10-year "break-even" rate). Since gold is a non-interest earning assets it performs best when real rates are near zero or negative. This report tracks real rates (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) and inflation expectations (<i>Inflation Watch</i>). Since gold is often considered an inflation hedge it is prudent to track both. In 2020, inflation may pick up (gold bullish) but if interest rates rise faster, an increasing real rate dampens interest in in the yellow metal (gold bearish). <b>[Real rates have been negative since March 23, 2020]</b></li>
<li><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio (AUSP)</b> - Gold's relationship with equities is key to monitor. Gold lost value to the S&P 500 from Donald Trump's election until October of 2018. Since then it has regained value in a trend of higher-lows (see <i>Chart to Watch)</i>. We entered 2020 with that trend higher challenged. Falling below trend would be a very bearish sign for gold. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has put the AUSP solidly above trend</b>].</li>
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Predictions aside, 2020 will no doubt be an exciting year in the markets. Get ready for a roller-coaster ride, pardner. I remain bullish gold!</div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div>
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I've been searching old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. So far, I haven't found any newpaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). There are four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That's seven total for the County, still </div>
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digging [UPDATE below puts the death count at 38 confirmed which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922].</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I've been informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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<b>UPDATE April 18, 2020</b>: After posting the above, Rhonda Shandler Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled on the very same subject. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Shandler Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-53118713384935728922020-06-12T10:14:00.000-07:002020-06-12T23:22:16.085-07:00Gold $1,753 on Renewed Virus Concerns & Economic Outlook<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2WkC83WXvr4/XuOgc82rI5I/AAAAAAAAjSw/mtAEE2XMPYgDwuufMeKYPWwyZsGcmV-ggCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1-RH%2BRailroad%2Bby%2BJackson%2BMine.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="1024" height="232" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2WkC83WXvr4/XuOgc82rI5I/AAAAAAAAjSw/mtAEE2XMPYgDwuufMeKYPWwyZsGcmV-ggCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/1-RH%2BRailroad%2Bby%2BJackson%2BMine.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><i>Old Mining Railroad Grade (blue dotted line)</i></b></div>
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<b>Ruby Hill, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, Jun 12, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<b>"WARNING: Too quiet on the copper front? Red metal at currency-like volatility!" </b><i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i><b> March 4, 2020 [Comex copper fell into Bear Country March 13, 2020] </b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,760 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $17.89 per ounce</b></div>
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<a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free press, 6/4/2020)</div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a> (4/28/2020, Kitco News)</b><b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Morning Miners!</div>
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Ouch! What a difference a week makes. Last Friday, I thought gold needed to drop a few more levels before resuming its rally after a blowout jobs report. Not so, rally in high gear this week.</div>
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The virus bugaboo has spooked markets again as we top 2 million cases and nearly 114,000 deaths in the United States (see below). Most worrying is an increase in hospitalizations to record levels in states like Texas. The Federal Reserve also revealed this week a concern that high unemployment could be around for a much longer period than many market participants thought.</div>
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Investors have returned to safe-havens like gold and lightened up their "risk-on" assets like stocks. We're clearly early in the covid-19 game and I believe there is a still path to $1,800+ for 2020. The push-pull between equities and stocks will continue for some time. Here is my <a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/#tracking-source=main-nav"><b>Elko Daily Free Press</b></a> column on the subject submitted in May and posted early this month. It is also be included in the just released <a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/quarterly/"><b>Mining Quarterly</b></a>:</div>
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<a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free press, 6/4/2020)</div>
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Comex <b>August</b> gold is trading at <b>$1,740.7 per ounce</b> (9:50 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> It pulled back a tad from the earlier morning high of <b>$1,753.0</b></span></div>
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Silver rose with gold and some technical numbers for silver continue to shine [see Silver Watch below].</div>
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Comex <b>July </b>Silver currently trading at <b>$17.60 per ounce</b> (9:51 am Eureka Time). </div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">Copper is showing some spark this morning: </span></div>
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Comex <b>July</b> copper is presently <b>$2.6170 per pound </b>(9:51 am Eureka Time). Copper is up 3% this week [see Weekly Summaries below, recorded earlier this morning].</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-06-12/Wall-St-Main-St-expect-gold-prices-to-keep-on-shining.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div>
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<i>Gold had a broad-based rally this week trading up 4% from last Friday's close with significant gains compared to key commodities, equities and major currencies. Even though domestic stocks are in an upswing after yesterday's devastating losses, the yellow metal has solid footing for further advances next week. </i></div>
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<i>A primary driver for this rally has been a resurgence of covid-19 that threatens domestic as well as global economic recovery. Texas is a good example. Posting record hospitalizations this week demonstrates the uptick in cases is not just due to increased testing in the Lone Star state. The Federal Reserve's accommodative stance and warning that unemployment will take considerable time to unwind also helped reverse recent "risk-on" sentiment.</i></div>
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<i>I believe gold is still on a path to $1,800 and higher this year although the journey will not be a straight line. High investor demand for gold has also brought volatility so expect more dips as bursts of optimism return to the equity space.</i></div>
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<i>My August Comex gold target for next week is $1,760 per ounce with silver following to $17.89 per ounce. </i></div>
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<i>From an interest rate viewpoint, real rates are still bullishly negative as inflation expectations continue to rise faster than Treasury yields. Japanese and European 10-year bonds have returned to negative territory which is also a bullish indication for gold.* </i></div>
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<i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div>
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* U.S. 10-yr real rate -.55%, 10-year Inflation expectation 1.21%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.43%, France -0.04% and Japan (not available) [Source: Bloomberg News]</div>
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Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below. The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog).</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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The website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning (last week in parentheses):</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 2,027,521 (</b><b>1,880,703</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 113,899 (</b><b>108,496</b><b>) deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 10,678 (</b><b>9,266</b><b>) covid-19 cases; 461 (</b><b>432</b><b>) deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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Click on the "United States of America" tab to find individual states. The "deaths-per-day" chart projections give the best time duration estimate because death is a lagging indicator. </div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Social distancing is currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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July Comex copper is up 3% for the week, presently trading at <b>$2.6170 per pound. </b>Here's a recent column from <a href="http://mining.com/"><b>Mining.com</b></a> showing that copper demand should become strong in China:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.mining.com/copper-price-rally-builds-as-chinas-spending-balloons/">Copper price rally builds as China’s spending balloons</a> </b>(6/4/2020)</div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading up at $38.92 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> negative $37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, <b>4/20/2020</b>.</div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). <u>A low number is good</u>. A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). This low was replaced yesterday, <b>6/4/20, at 0.2351</b>. <b>This AM the indicator sits at 1.2485 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th but above the 5-year average<b> (0.78)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China, but let's keep an eye for any moves higher given recent U.S./China tensions (click on chart for larger size). <b><span style="color: red;">This week's move up is a little concerning; above 1.5, it becomes a warning.</span></b></div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night on the Monday Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<b>To ponder:</b> In numerology the year 2020 reduces to the number 4 - a dreaded number in Chinese culture. And yes, it is the Year of the Rat...a double-whammy for sure.</div>
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Remember, you can register with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/"><b>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)</b></a> for updates by e-mail. Look at the situation summary tab on their website for updated U.S. infections and deaths.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d4TgxtZsMLE/XuOt5iBnJgI/AAAAAAAAjTI/vUL4o9umo_UlqvlMDexGBNscKB3kpj6GgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252806-12-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1060" data-original-width="1500" height="282" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d4TgxtZsMLE/XuOt5iBnJgI/AAAAAAAAjTI/vUL4o9umo_UlqvlMDexGBNscKB3kpj6GgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252806-12-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is below <b>$18 per ounce (see Weekly Summaries above).</b></div>
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Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 98.37 silver is historically very cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at <b>68.6 ounce per ounce</b>.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is bullishly above unity at 2.04 (i.e. on average, the daily % rise or fall of silver price is beta times the % change in gold price). You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher </span></b><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher - <b>yesterday's number is 1.21%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see <b>Weekly Summary Charts</b>) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7d5kZn0HwQA/XuOunbZAvSI/AAAAAAAAjTY/Fdlwb0MK5jIkcfjwf_KF4TwEY258CJeDQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Inflation%2BExp%2B%252806-12-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="290" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7d5kZn0HwQA/XuOunbZAvSI/AAAAAAAAjTY/Fdlwb0MK5jIkcfjwf_KF4TwEY258CJeDQCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Inflation%2BExp%2B%252806-12-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5677 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio still maintains lots of daylight above that trend (red dotted line) - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Six Things to Watch in 2020</span></i></b></div>
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The ole Colonel's beer bet <b>(won on an intraday basis Tuesday, January 7th!)</b>. I have since revised it [parenthesis]:</div>
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<b>Gold will break </b><b>[on a closing basis]</b><b> $1,600 per ounce before the 4th of July 2020</b></div>
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We'll keep the bet alive by looking at closing instead of intraday prices - what a sport! <b>[won on a closing basis February 18th]</b></div>
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My top six things to watch for 2020:</div>
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<li><b>Copper prices </b>- I'd like to see copper prices push us above $6,500 per tonne ($2.95 per pound). A fall below the $6,000-level ($2.72) would be a bad sign - for example, U.S./China trade Phase I in trouble or escalating geo-political unrest. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has pushed copper below $6,000 per tonne</b>].</li>
<li><b>Chinese yuan</b> - strengthening below 7 USDCNY is a good sign that their economy and trade are on an improving track (<i>Weekly Summary</i>). Sustained weakening above the 7-level is a red flag. <b>[Chinese yuan is above 7 USDCNY again]</b></li>
<li><b>U.S. dollar</b> - will it remain strong or begin a period of decline? Foreign demand for Treasury debt has kept the dollar strong but rising U.S. deficits and countries trying to move away from dollar dependence (e.g., China, Russia) are countervailing forces not to be ignored. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made its high September 30 this year and has been in a downtrend of lower-lows since (99.38 September high). This reports tracks the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) (27.01 September high, see <i>Weekly Summary</i> below for latest price). Finally, overseas interest in Treasurys has been fueled by negative interest rates abroad. This report monitors the German 10-year bund (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) as a benchmark for foreign Treasury demand. <b>[Update: Covid-19 has caused liquidations as market participants rush to the U.S. dollar for safety. This has surged the U.S. Dollar Index above 100]</b></li>
<li><b>Interest Rates</b> - there is an almost uncanny relationship between the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury and the copper-to-gold ratio (CGR, <i>Weekly Summary</i>). I've written about this extensively since 2017 ( see <i>The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries </i>below). <a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2019/12/gold-1520-silver-181-copper-225-giddy.html">Bottom line, a rising CGR signals higher interest rates for 2020.</a> [<b>Update: Covid-19 appears to have reversed the trend higher, 10-year Treasury is near record lows</b>].</li>
<li><b>Real rates </b>- The 10-year inflation adjusted Treasury yield, or real rate, is the difference between the nominal yield and inflation expectations (aka 10-year "break-even" rate). Since gold is a non-interest earning assets it performs best when real rates are near zero or negative. This report tracks real rates (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) and inflation expectations (<i>Inflation Watch</i>). Since gold is often considered an inflation hedge it is prudent to track both. In 2020, inflation may pick up (gold bullish) but if interest rates rise faster, an increasing real rate dampens interest in in the yellow metal (gold bearish). <b>[Real rates have been negative since March 23, 2020]</b></li>
<li><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio (AUSP)</b> - Gold's relationship with equities is key to monitor. Gold lost value to the S&P 500 from Donald Trump's election until October of 2018. Since then it has regained value in a trend of higher-lows (see <i>Chart to Watch)</i>. We entered 2020 with that trend higher challenged. Falling below trend would be a very bearish sign for gold. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has put the AUSP solidly above trend</b>].</li>
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Predictions aside, 2020 will no doubt be an exciting year in the markets. Get ready for a roller-coaster ride, pardner. I remain bullish gold!</div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div>
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I've been searching old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. So far, I haven't found any newpaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). There are four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That's seven total for the County, still </div>
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digging [UPDATE below puts the death count at 38 confirmed which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922].</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I've been informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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<b>UPDATE April 18, 2020</b>: After posting the above, Rhonda Shandler Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled on the very same subject. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Shandler Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-32389392887265549582020-06-05T11:09:00.000-07:002020-06-06T08:58:56.024-07:00Gold Plumbs $1,672 on "Stunning" Jobs Report; Copper & Stocks Soar<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yafsM8XNwac/XtpuU37epOI/AAAAAAAAjQ0/oNJe8WSl_Tcr9wOYkjANF1-MVnRRU2p1ACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1-Early%2BExamples%2Bof%2BExploration%2B%2526%2BMining%2B-%2BEureka%2BMining%2BDistrict%2B6-5%2Bin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="749" data-original-width="1024" height="292" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yafsM8XNwac/XtpuU37epOI/AAAAAAAAjQ0/oNJe8WSl_Tcr9wOYkjANF1-MVnRRU2p1ACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/1-Early%2BExamples%2Bof%2BExploration%2B%2526%2BMining%2B-%2BEureka%2BMining%2BDistrict%2B6-5%2Bin.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><i>Map of Early Mines in Eureka (circa 1880s)</i></b></div>
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Note: Ruby Hill Mine inset no longer a Barrick operation</div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, Jun 5, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<b>"WARNING: Too quiet on the copper front? Red metal at currency-like volatility!" </b><i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i><b> March 4, 2020 [Comex copper fell into Bear Country March 13, 2020] </b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,665 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $17.25 per ounce</b></div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a> (4/28/2020, Kitco News)</b><b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Morning Miners!</div>
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CNBC Business News reporter Carl Quintanilla called <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm"><b>this morning's jobs report</b></a> "stunning." It was. The adjective was repeated later in a Presidential tweet. A shocking 2.5 million jobs were added in the month of May. Headline unemployment fell to 13.3% from 14.7%. Expectations were Depression era levels of 19-20%. Encouraging and welcome news.</div>
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This was also great news for the red metal and stocks which rallied aggressively higher. July copper is above the key-$2.5 per pound level. Gold took a trip to the locker room.</div>
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For the moment, investors are rotating from safe-havens like gold to "risk-on" assets like stocks. However, we're still early in the covid-19 game and I believe there is a path to $1,800+ for 2020. The push-pull between equities and stocks will continue for some time. Here is my <a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/#tracking-source=main-nav"><b>Elko Daily Free Press</b></a> column on the subject submitted in May and posted yesterday. It will also be included in the upcoming Mining Quarterly:</div>
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<a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/baker-gold-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/article_b03ee9fe-3dae-5190-8854-7b155ae62e82.html"><b>Baker: Gold in the time of coronavirus</b></a> (Elko Daily Free press, 6/4/2020)</div>
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Comex <b>August</b> gold is trading at <b>$1,683.3 per ounce</b> (10:12 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> It pulled up from the earlier morning low of <b>$1,671.7.</b></span></div>
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Silver fell with gold but some technical numbers for silver continue to shine [see Silver Watch below].</div>
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Comex <b>July </b>Silver currently trading at <b>$17.51 per ounce</b> (10:12 am Eureka Time). </div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">Copper is showing some major giddy-up this morning: </span></div>
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Comex <b>July</b> copper is presently <b>$2.5475 per pound </b>(10:12 am Eureka Time). Copper is up 5% this week [see Weekly Summaries below, recorded earlier this morning].</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-06-05/Wall-St-mixed-on-gold-prices-Main-St-remains-bullish.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div>
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<i>After a stunning upside employment report, domestic equities are on a tear; gold is not. Falling like a rock below the key $1,700-level, the yellow metal is trying to find footing in April lows as market participants quickly rotate from safe-havens to risk-on assets. For example, the red metal soars as Treasury's plummet in price. Comex copper has proudly risen above the $2.5 per pound level this morning extending a rally established from March 19th. This is important because the red metal is a key indicator of global recovery.</i></div>
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<i>From an interest rate viewpoint, real rates are still bullishly negative as inflation expectations continue to rise faster than Treasury yields. However, Japanese and some European 10-year bonds have turned marginally positive which is potentially a bearish indication for gold.* Something to monitor as offshore economies participate in economic recovery from covid-19.</i></div>
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<i>I believe precious metals will continue to experience downward pressure next week with gold falling to $1,665 per ounce and silver following to $17.25 per ounce.
A note of caution: markets could quickly switch back to a "risk-off" posture if the rapid rise of covid-19 cases </i><i>in some areas of the U.S. </i><i> persists </i>[currently 9 states]. <i>This has the potential to slow the re-opening process.</i></div>
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<i>Bottom line, gold volatility will track volatility in equities for some months to come. There is still a path to the $1,800-level this year.</i></div>
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<i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div>
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* U.S. real rate -.40%, 10-year Inflation expectation 1.22%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.29%, France +0.01% and Japan +0.04%</div>
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Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below. The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog).</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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There is a dandy website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning (last week in parentheses):</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 1.880,703 (1,731,035) covid-19 cases; 108,496 (102,201) deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 9,266 (8,350) covid-19 cases; 432 (410) deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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Click on the "United States of America" tab to find individual states. The "deaths-per-day" chart projections give the best time duration estimate because death is a lagging indicator. <b>The models have been recently updated through August 4th given early openings in some states:</b></div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Social distancing is currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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July Comex copper is up 5% for the week, presently trading at <b>$2.5475 per pound. </b>Here's a recent column from <a href="http://mining.com/"><b>Mining.com</b></a> showing that copper demand should become strong in China:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.mining.com/copper-price-rally-builds-as-chinas-spending-balloons/">Copper price rally builds as China’s spending balloons</a> </b>(6/4/2020)</div>
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This column from last week in <a href="http://mining.com/"><b>Mining.com</b></a> explains how complicated the copper story is becoming:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.mining.com/pandemic-to-worsen-copper-glut-during-next-18-months/">Pandemic to worsen copper glut in coming months</a> </b>(5/27/2020)</div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading up at $38.92 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> negative $37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, <b>4/20/2020</b>.</div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). <u>A low number is good</u>. A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). This low was replaced yesterday, <b>6/4/20, at 0.2351</b>. <b>This AM the indicator sits at 0.4460 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and below the 5-year average<b> (0.78)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China, but let's keep an eye for any moves higher given recent U.S./China tensions (click on chart for larger size).</div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night on the Monday Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<b>To ponder:</b> In numerology the year 2020 reduces to the number 4 - a dreaded number in Chinese culture. And yes, it is the Year of the Rat...a double-whammy for sure.</div>
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Remember, you can register with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/"><b>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)</b></a> for updates by e-mail. Look at the situation summary tab on their website for updated U.S. infections and deaths.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is below <b>$18 per ounce (see Weekly Summaries above).</b></div>
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Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 96.48 silver is historically very cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at <b>68.6 ounce per ounce</b>.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is bullishly above unity at 1.74 (i.e. on average, the daily % rise or fall of silver price is beta times the % change in gold price). You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher </span></b><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-D4mhfZRBbe4/Xtp-zDKiVfI/AAAAAAAAjRg/t-KK_330LzgPjhqkeqJ2GlH1ufNAY-vTQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/GSR%2B%252806-05-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1089" data-original-width="1500" height="290" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-D4mhfZRBbe4/Xtp-zDKiVfI/AAAAAAAAjRg/t-KK_330LzgPjhqkeqJ2GlH1ufNAY-vTQCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/GSR%2B%252806-05-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher, <b>yesterday's number is 1.22%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see Weekly Summary Charts) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YjoCasB2zBo/Xtp-5qqTfQI/AAAAAAAAjRo/2nmCA52TJho6UZGV9hIVtwA_hLcbHDkWgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Inflation%2BExp%2B%252806-05-20200.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="290" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YjoCasB2zBo/Xtp-5qqTfQI/AAAAAAAAjRo/2nmCA52TJho6UZGV9hIVtwA_hLcbHDkWgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Inflation%2BExp%2B%252806-05-20200.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OPAtGMjNTxg/Wv75K6wSTXI/AAAAAAAAKzg/vgudq0TPIHov8VDac0w0grk7TgOJRJiOwCLcBGAs/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2018%2B-%2BLone%2BMountain%2B211.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5302 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio still maintains lots of daylight above that trend (red dotted line) - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Six Things to Watch in 2020</span></i></b></div>
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The ole Colonel's beer bet <b>(won on an intraday basis Tuesday, January 7th!)</b>. I have since revised it [parenthesis]:</div>
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<b>Gold will break </b><b>[on a closing basis]</b><b> $1,600 per ounce before the 4th of July 2020</b></div>
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We'll keep the bet alive by looking at closing instead of intraday prices - what a sport! <b>[won on a closing basis February 18th]</b></div>
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My top six things to watch for 2020:</div>
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<li><b>Copper prices </b>- I'd like to see copper prices push us above $6,500 per tonne ($2.95 per pound). A fall below the $6,000-level ($2.72) would be a bad sign - for example, U.S./China trade Phase I in trouble or escalating geo-political unrest. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has pushed copper below $6,000 per tonne</b>].</li>
<li><b>Chinese yuan</b> - strengthening below 7 USDCNY is a good sign that their economy and trade are on an improving track (<i>Weekly Summary</i>). Sustained weakening above the 7-level is a red flag. <b>[Chinese yuan is above 7 USDCNY again]</b></li>
<li><b>U.S. dollar</b> - will it remain strong or begin a period of decline? Foreign demand for Treasury debt has kept the dollar strong but rising U.S. deficits and countries trying to move away from dollar dependence (e.g., China, Russia) are countervailing forces not to be ignored. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made its high September 30 this year and has been in a downtrend of lower-lows since (99.38 September high). This reports tracks the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) (27.01 September high, see <i>Weekly Summary</i> below for latest price). Finally, overseas interest in Treasurys has been fueled by negative interest rates abroad. This report monitors the German 10-year bund (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) as a benchmark for foreign Treasury demand. <b>[Update: Covid-19 has caused liquidations as market participants rush to the U.S. dollar for safety. This has surged the U.S. Dollar Index above 100]</b></li>
<li><b>Interest Rates</b> - there is an almost uncanny relationship between the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury and the copper-to-gold ratio (CGR, <i>Weekly Summary</i>). I've written about this extensively since 2017 ( see <i>The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries </i>below). <a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2019/12/gold-1520-silver-181-copper-225-giddy.html">Bottom line, a rising CGR signals higher interest rates for 2020.</a> [<b>Update: Covid-19 appears to have reversed the trend higher, 10-year Treasury is near record lows</b>].</li>
<li><b>Real rates </b>- The 10-year inflation adjusted Treasury yield, or real rate, is the difference between the nominal yield and inflation expectations (aka 10-year "break-even" rate). Since gold is a non-interest earning assets it performs best when real rates are near zero or negative. This report tracks real rates (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) and inflation expectations (<i>Inflation Watch</i>). Since gold is often considered an inflation hedge it is prudent to track both. In 2020, inflation may pick up (gold bullish) but if interest rates rise faster, an increasing real rate dampens interest in in the yellow metal (gold bearish). <b>[Real rates have been negative since March 23, 2020]</b></li>
<li><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio (AUSP)</b> - Gold's relationship with equities is key to monitor. Gold lost value to the S&P 500 from Donald Trump's election until October of 2018. Since then it has regained value in a trend of higher-lows (see <i>Chart to Watch)</i>. We entered 2020 with that trend higher challenged. Falling below trend would be a very bearish sign for gold. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has put the AUSP solidly above trend</b>].</li>
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Predictions aside, 2020 will no doubt be an exciting year in the markets. Get ready for a roller-coaster ride, pardner. I remain bullish gold!</div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div>
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I've been searching old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. So far, I haven't found any newpaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). There are four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That's seven total for the County, still </div>
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digging [UPDATE below puts the death count at 38 confirmed which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922].</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I've been informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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<b>UPDATE April 18, 2020</b>: After posting the above, Rhonda Shandler Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled on the very same subject. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-40354677275261580452020-05-29T11:18:00.001-07:002020-05-29T11:30:25.163-07:00Gold $1,752 on US/China Tensions, 40+M Unemployed; Silver $18.54 on a Tear<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oY3Dm21ibKw/XtE0CtXI2UI/AAAAAAAAjOI/xaJupWcTuRcLSYZp9GNgIUmkGuBk94KzQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2014%2B-%2BLava%2BPits%2B070-001.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1024" height="262" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oY3Dm21ibKw/XtE0CtXI2UI/AAAAAAAAjOI/xaJupWcTuRcLSYZp9GNgIUmkGuBk94KzQCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/1-Eureka%2BSpring%2B2014%2B-%2BLava%2BPits%2B070-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><i>Ruby Hill Memories (2014)</i></b></div>
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<b>Ruby Hill, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, May 29, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<b>"WARNING: Too quiet on the copper front? Red metal at currency-like volatility!" </b><i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i><b> March 4, 2020 [Comex copper fell into Bear Country March 13, 2020] </b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,750 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $18.42 per ounce</b></div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a> (4/28/2020, Kitco News)</b><b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Morning Miners!</div>
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A week full of market moving news. US/China tensions are heating back up after a cooling down earlier this week. A White House Rose Garden press conference in a few minutes will provide an update on the situation. Unemployment claims in the last 10 weeks swelled to 40.7 million although the weekly increase was down from the previous weeks. There are riots in the streets of Minneapolis and disappointing consumer spending data this morning...all of this has boosted precious metal prices.</div>
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Investor demand for gold remains high. I believe it is up and away for $1,800+ ; taking out the 2011 $1,900+ all-time record is in the cards too for 2020. Look for my <a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/#tracking-source=main-nav"><b>Elko Daily Free Press</b></a> column on this subject in the near future. It will also be included in the upcoming Mining Quarterly.</div>
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Comex <b>August</b> gold is trading at <b>$1,749.8 per ounce</b> (10:05 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> It pulled back a bit from an earlier morning high of <b>$1,752.6</b></span></div>
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Silver continues to be on a tear. Additionally, the technical numbers for silver are beginning to shine brightly [see Silver Watch below].</div>
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Comex <b>July </b>Silver currently trading at <b>$18.52 per ounce</b> (10:52 am Eureka Time) just below the day's high of <b>$18.54</b>.<span style="text-align: center;"> </span></div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">Copper is showing some giddy-up this morning but there's a rough trail ahead (below).</span></div>
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Comex <b>July</b> copper is presently <b>$2.4230 per pound </b>(10:05 am Eureka Time). Copper is up 1% this week [see Weekly Summaries below, recorded earlier this morning].</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-05-29/Wall-St-Main-St-look-for-further-gains-in-gold-prices.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div>
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<i>Gold finds itself continuing in a push-pull with an exuberant domestic stock market. With historic monetary accommodation inflating asset prices, economic re-opening and hopes for a covid-19 vaccine by the end of the year, the S&P has rallied to within 10% of its all-time February high. On the worrying side, simmering U.S./China tensions on Hong Kong and now Taiwan, a weekly bump-up in unemployment to 40-plus million jobless citizens, riots in Minneapolis, weak consumer spending and a whiff of future inflation invigorate gold's hunger for new highs. </i></div>
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<i>This witches' brew of concerns bubbles against a bullish backdrop of a weakening U.S. dollar (the U.S. dollar Index has fallen to late-March levels) and persistently negative 10-year real rates.*</i></div>
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<i>Copper and the benchmark S&P 500 continue a high and persistent positive correlation (>+0.6, 1-month & 3-month) suggesting both have been riding together on optimism and extraordinary Central bank accommodations and not fundamentals. Look for a sea change in the coming weeks: risk-off, gold up, copper down, equities in a trading range. </i></div>
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<i>I believe it likely the yellow metal solidifies $1,750 territory next week on a path to $1,800 per ounce. As the gold-to-silver ratio continues to fall and silver's beta relative to gold increases, silver should find comfort at $18.42 per ounce.</i></div>
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<i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div>
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* U.S. real rate -.50%, 10-year Inflation expectation 1.18%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.45%, France -0.08% and Japan -0.01%</div>
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Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below. The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog).</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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There is a dandy website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning:</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 1,731,035 covid-19 cases; 102,201deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 8,350 covid-19 cases; 410 deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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Click on the "United States of America" tab to find individual states. The "deaths-per-day" chart projections give the best time duration estimate because death is a lagging indicator. <b>The models have been recently updated through August 4th given early openings in some states:</b></div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Social distancing is currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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July Comex copper is up 1% for the week but off its highs, presently trading at <b>$2.4230 per pound. </b>This column in <a href="http://mining.com/"><b>Mining.com</b></a> just more complicated the copper story is becoming:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.mining.com/pandemic-to-worsen-copper-glut-during-next-18-months/">Pandemic to worsen copper glut in coming months</a> </b>(5/27/2020)</div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading up at $33.07 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> -$37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, <b>4/20/2020</b>.</div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). A low number is good. A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 0.8600 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and moving away from the 5-year average<b> (0.78)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China, but let's keep an eye for any moves higher given recent U.S./China tensions (click on chart for larger size).</div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night on the Monday Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<b>To ponder:</b> In numerology the year 2020 reduces to the number 4 - a dreaded number in Chinese culture. And yes, it is the Year of the Rat...a double-whammy for sure.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Remember, you can register with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/"><b>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)</b></a> for updates by e-mail. Look at the situation summary tab on their website for updated U.S. infections and deaths.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is above <b>$18 per ounce (see Weekly Summaries above).</b></div>
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Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 95.01 silver is historically very cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at <b>68.6 ounce per ounce</b>.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is bullishly above unity at 1.48 (i.e. on average, the daily % rise or fall of silver price is beta times the % change in gold price). You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher </span></b><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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Stay tuned.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher, <b>yesterday's number is 1.18%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see Weekly Summary Charts) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5767 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio continues to maintain lots and lots of daylight above that trend (red dotted line) - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Six Things to Watch in 2020</span></i></b></div>
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The ole Colonel's beer bet <b>(won on an intraday basis Tuesday, January 7th!)</b>. I have since revised it [parenthesis]:</div>
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<b>Gold will break </b><b>[on a closing basis]</b><b> $1,600 per ounce before the 4th of July 2020</b></div>
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We'll keep the bet alive by looking at closing instead of intraday prices - what a sport! <b>[won on a closing basis February 18th]</b></div>
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My top six things to watch for 2020:</div>
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<li><b>Copper prices </b>- I'd like to see copper prices push us above $6,500 per tonne ($2.95 per pound). A fall below the $6,000-level ($2.72) would be a bad sign - for example, U.S./China trade Phase I in trouble or escalating geo-political unrest. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has pushed copper below $6,000 per tonne</b>].</li>
<li><b>Chinese yuan</b> - strengthening below 7 USDCNY is a good sign that their economy and trade are on an improving track (<i>Weekly Summary</i>). Sustained weakening above the 7-level is a red flag. <b>[Chinese yuan is above 7 USDCNY again]</b></li>
<li><b>U.S. dollar</b> - will it remain strong or begin a period of decline? Foreign demand for Treasury debt has kept the dollar strong but rising U.S. deficits and countries trying to move away from dollar dependence (e.g., China, Russia) are countervailing forces not to be ignored. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made its high September 30 this year and has been in a downtrend of lower-lows since (99.38 September high). This reports tracks the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) (27.01 September high, see <i>Weekly Summary</i> below for latest price). Finally, overseas interest in Treasurys has been fueled by negative interest rates abroad. This report monitors the German 10-year bund (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) as a benchmark for foreign Treasury demand. <b>[Update: Covid-19 has caused liquidations as market participants rush to the U.S. dollar for safety. This has surged the U.S. Dollar Index above 100]</b></li>
<li><b>Interest Rates</b> - there is an almost uncanny relationship between the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury and the copper-to-gold ratio (CGR, <i>Weekly Summary</i>). I've written about this extensively since 2017 ( see <i>The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries </i>below). <a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2019/12/gold-1520-silver-181-copper-225-giddy.html">Bottom line, a rising CGR signals higher interest rates for 2020.</a> [<b>Update: Covid-19 appears to have reversed the trend higher, 10-year Treasury is near record lows</b>].</li>
<li><b>Real rates </b>- The 10-year inflation adjusted Treasury yield, or real rate, is the difference between the nominal yield and inflation expectations (aka 10-year "break-even" rate). Since gold is a non-interest earning assets it performs best when real rates are near zero or negative. This report tracks real rates (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) and inflation expectations (<i>Inflation Watch</i>). Since gold is often considered an inflation hedge it is prudent to track both. In 2020, inflation may pick up (gold bullish) but if interest rates rise faster, an increasing real rate dampens interest in in the yellow metal (gold bearish). <b>[Real rates have been negative since March 23, 2020]</b></li>
<li><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio (AUSP)</b> - Gold's relationship with equities is key to monitor. Gold lost value to the S&P 500 from Donald Trump's election until October of 2018. Since then it has regained value in a trend of higher-lows (see <i>Chart to Watch)</i>. We entered 2020 with that trend higher challenged. Falling below trend would be a very bearish sign for gold. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has put the AUSP solidly above trend</b>].</li>
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Predictions aside, 2020 will no doubt be an exciting year in the markets. Get ready for a roller-coaster ride, pardner. I remain bullish gold!</div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div>
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I've been searching old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. So far, I haven't found any newpaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). There are four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That's seven total for the County, still </div>
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digging [UPDATE below puts the death count at 38 confirmed which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922].</div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I've been informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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<b>UPDATE April 18, 2020</b>: After posting the above, Rhonda Shandler Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled on the very same subject. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-49338424320148488642020-05-22T11:08:00.002-07:002020-05-24T09:03:44.328-07:00Gold $1,742 on China Concern; Silver Catches a Gear; McEwen Reports<div style="text-align: center;">
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<b><i>Gold is where you find it</i></b></div>
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<b>Dead Cow Canyon, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, May 22, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<b>"WARNING: Too quiet on the copper front? Red metal at currency-like volatility!" </b><i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i><b> March 4, 2020 [Comex copper fell into Bear Country March 13, 2020] </b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,750 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $17.78 per ounce</b></div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a> (4/28/2020, Kitco News)</b><b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Morning Miners!</div>
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Ah nuts, China is back in the news. Not that there isn't enough to worry about with covid-19, China is attempting a power grab in Hong Kong and U.S./China trade tensions may be heating back up. When the two largest economies of the world get back in the ring, markets get the jitters.</div>
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Of course, this is good for the metal that glitters but could be trouble for copper. The good news this week is silver. On Wednesday Comex July silver scored <b>$18.165 per ounce</b> - hasn't been at that altitude for a while. Additionally, the technical numbers for silver are beginning to shine [see Silver Watch below].</div>
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Comex June Silver currently trading at <b>$17.65 per ounce</b> (10:55 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> </span></div>
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All of the continuing market uncertainty fuels investor demand for gold. I believe it is up and away for $1,800+ gold; taking out the 2011 $1,900+ all-time record is in the cards too for 2020. Look for my <a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/#tracking-source=main-nav"><b>Elko Daily Free Press</b></a> column on this subject in the near future. It will also be included in the upcoming Mining Quarterly.</div>
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Comex June gold is trading at <b>$1,734.86 per ounce</b> (10:42 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> It pulled back a bit from an earlier morning high of <b>$1,742.0</b></span></div>
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Comex July copper is presently <b>$2.3880 per pound</b>. Copper is up 2% this week [see Weekly Summaries below, recorded earlier this morning].</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-05-22/Wall-St-Main-St-look-for-gold-to-regain-its-luster.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div>
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<i>China, China, China...</i></div>
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<i>My focus has turned to China for clues on gold's next moves. Key indicators will be the Chinese yuan and Comex copper futures. The former is less than 0.5% from its weakest level during the U.S. trade tension in 2019. China is the world's largest customer of copper which has steadily rallied from a sub-$2 low on March 19. Copper price is showing resilience but could soon see considerable downward pressure. </i></div>
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<i>What's going on and how does this influence the price of gold? President Trump has decided to attack China for its lack of covid-19 transparency as part of his re-election bid. This will likely re-ignite trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. Adding to China's woes are re-kindled tensions in Hong Kong, a domestic economy damaged by the virus and concerns about the global environment. All of this uncertainty is a boost for safe-haven gold and a growing headwind for the red metal. </i></div>
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<i>Copper and the benchmark S&P 500 have shown a high and persistent positive correlation (~0.8, 1-month & 3-month) suggesting both have been riding on optimism and extraordinary central bank accommodations more than fundamentals. Look for a sea change in the coming weeks: risk-off, gold up, copper down, equities in a trading range.</i></div>
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<i>A key chart </i>[see Chart to Watch below]<i> to continue monitoring is the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio (AUSP). The March 23 peak in this gold ratio is also the date inflation-adjusted 10-year Treasury rates turned negative (i.e. real rates), another bullish indication for gold.* Look for a new peak as the China story unfolds. </i></div>
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<i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div>
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* U.S. real rate -.48%, 10-year Inflation expectation 1.14%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.49%, France -0.04% and Japan -0.02%</div>
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Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below. The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog).</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>McEwen Mining Reports</i></b></span></div>
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This Tuesday McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE:MUX) reported out their first quarter results:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.mcewenmining.com/investor-relations/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/McEwen-Mining-Reports-Q1-2020-Results/default.aspx">McEwen Mining Reports Q1 2020 Results</a> </b>(Press release, 5/19/2020)</div>
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For their Gold Bar Mine in Eureka County: </div>
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<i>"Gold Bar produced 9,100 GEOs in Q1 at cash costs and AISC of $1,887 and $2,177 per GEO, respectively. Both cash cost and AISC included the impact of $4.5 million spent for pre-stripping at the Gold Pick West pit, or $495 per ounce which cannot be capitalized under US GAAP. Excluding the impact of the $4.5 million spend on pre-stripping, cash cost per gold equivalent ounce in Q1 was $1,392, which is 9% or $111 per ounce higher than the cash cost per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2019 <a href="https://www.mcewenmining.com/investor-relations/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/McEwen-Mining-Reports-Q1-2020-Results/default.aspx">(<b>more...</b>)</a>"</i></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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There is a dandy website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning:</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 1,627,621 covid-19 cases; 96,686 deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 7,401 covid-19 cases; 381 deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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The good news is that the curves continue to flatten [<b>Weekly rates 5/15 to 5/22</b>, calculated by the ole Colonel]:</div>
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<b>U.S. covid-19 deaths double every 47.5days (last week </b><b>39.5</b><b> days, previous week </b><b>25.9</b><b>)</b></div>
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<b>Nevada covid-19 deaths double every 41.5 days (last week </b><b>33.3</b><b> days, previous week </b><b>25.9</b><b>)</b></div>
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For a weekly doubling rate, the bigger the number the better. Higher numbers mean more days before doubling! <b>Nevada is falling behind the overall U.S. recovery slightly (note that they were about the same two weeks ago).</b></div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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Click on the "United States of America" tab to find individual states. The "deaths-per-day" chart projections give the best time duration estimate because death is a lagging indicator (please bear with me, I know this is a grim subject). <b>The models have been recently updated through August 4th given early openings in some states:</b></div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Social distancing is currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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July Comex copper is up 2% for the week but off its highs, presently trading at <b>$2.3770 per pound. </b>This column in the Financial Times explains just how complicated the copper story is becoming:</div>
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<b> <a href="https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/mining/copper-disrupted">2020 was supposed to be copper's year to shine. Now everything is uncertain</a> </b>(5/22/2020, Financial Times)</div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading up at $32.83 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> -$37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, 4/20/2020.</div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). A low number is good. A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 0.9085 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and above the 5-year average<b> (0.78)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China, but let's keep an eye for any moves higher given recent U.S./China tensions (click on chart for larger size).</div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night on the Monday Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<b>To ponder:</b> In numerology the year 2020 reduces to the number 4 - a dreaded number in Chinese culture. And yes, it is the Year of the Rat...a double-whammy for sure.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Remember, you can register with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/"><b>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)</b></a> for updates by e-mail. Look at the situation summary tab on their website for updated U.S. infections and deaths.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mIphRzO4Gc4/XsgL6aZktLI/AAAAAAAAjM0/_Llv7DyJR6IkJBwwg50Ltdpy8NJGeoo6QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252805-22-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1058" data-original-width="1500" height="281" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mIphRzO4Gc4/XsgL6aZktLI/AAAAAAAAjM0/_Llv7DyJR6IkJBwwg50Ltdpy8NJGeoo6QCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252805-22-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is above <b>$17 per ounce (see Weekly Summaries above).</b></div>
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Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 98.43 silver is historically very cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at 68.6 ounce per ounce.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is finally above 1.0 at 1.22 (i.e. on average, the daily % rise or fall of silver price is beta times the % change in gold price). You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher </span></b><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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Stay tuned.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher, <b>yesterday's number is 1.14%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see Weekly Summary Charts) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5910 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio continues to maintain lots and lots of daylight above that trend (red dotted line) - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Six Things to Watch in 2020</span></i></b></div>
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The ole Colonel's beer bet <b>(won on an intraday basis Tuesday, January 7th!)</b>. I have since revised it [parenthesis]:</div>
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<b>Gold will break </b><b>[on a closing basis]</b><b> $1,600 per ounce before the 4th of July 2020</b></div>
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We'll keep the bet alive by looking at closing instead of intraday prices - what a sport! <b>[won on a closing basis February 18th]</b></div>
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My top six things to watch for 2020:</div>
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<li><b>Copper prices </b>- I'd like to see copper prices push us above $6,500 per tonne ($2.95 per pound). A fall below the $6,000-level ($2.72) would be a bad sign - for example, U.S./China trade Phase I in trouble or escalating geo-political unrest. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has pushed copper below $6,000 per tonne</b>].</li>
<li><b>Chinese yuan</b> - strengthening below 7 USDCNY is a good sign that their economy and trade are on an improving track (<i>Weekly Summary</i>). Sustained weakening above the 7-level is a red flag. <b>[Chinese yuan is above 7 USDCNY again]</b></li>
<li><b>U.S. dollar</b> - will it remain strong or begin a period of decline? Foreign demand for Treasury debt has kept the dollar strong but rising U.S. deficits and countries trying to move away from dollar dependence (e.g., China, Russia) are countervailing forces not to be ignored. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made its high September 30 this year and has been in a downtrend of lower-lows since (99.38 September high). This reports tracks the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) (27.01 September high, see <i>Weekly Summary</i> below for latest price). Finally, overseas interest in Treasurys has been fueled by negative interest rates abroad. This report monitors the German 10-year bund (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) as a benchmark for foreign Treasury demand. <b>[Update: Covid-19 has caused liquidations as market participants rush to the U.S. dollar for safety. This has surged the U.S. Dollar Index above 100]</b></li>
<li><b>Interest Rates</b> - there is an almost uncanny relationship between the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury and the copper-to-gold ratio (CGR, <i>Weekly Summary</i>). I've written about this extensively since 2017 ( see <i>The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries </i>below). <a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2019/12/gold-1520-silver-181-copper-225-giddy.html">Bottom line, a rising CGR signals higher interest rates for 2020.</a> [<b>Update: Covid-19 appears to have reversed the trend higher, 10-year Treasury is near record lows</b>].</li>
<li><b>Real rates </b>- The 10-year inflation adjusted Treasury yield, or real rate, is the difference between the nominal yield and inflation expectations (aka 10-year "break-even" rate). Since gold is a non-interest earning assets it performs best when real rates are near zero or negative. This report tracks real rates (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) and inflation expectations (<i>Inflation Watch</i>). Since gold is often considered an inflation hedge it is prudent to track both. In 2020, inflation may pick up (gold bullish) but if interest rates rise faster, an increasing real rate dampens interest in in the yellow metal (gold bearish). <b>[Real rates have been negative since March 23, 2020]</b></li>
<li><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio (AUSP)</b> - Gold's relationship with equities is key to monitor. Gold lost value to the S&P 500 from Donald Trump's election until October of 2018. Since then it has regained value in a trend of higher-lows (see <i>Chart to Watch)</i>. We entered 2020 with that trend higher challenged. Falling below trend would be a very bearish sign for gold. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has put the AUSP solidly above trend</b>].</li>
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Predictions aside, 2020 will no doubt be an exciting year in the markets. Get ready for a roller-coaster ride, pardner. I remain bullish gold!</div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div>
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I've been searching old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. So far, I haven't found any newpaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). There are four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That's seven total for the County, still </div>
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digging [UPDATE below puts the death count at 38 confirmed which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922].</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I've been informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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<b>UPDATE April 18, 2020</b>: After posting the above, Rhonda Shandler Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled on the very same subject. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-28541004279847792772020-05-15T10:02:00.002-07:002020-05-16T23:15:59.514-07:00Gold Pops $1,757 on Renewed China Tensions, Industrial Production Shocker<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BpweNfsxY8c/Xr694lhK0oI/AAAAAAAAi-E/7T2VUZNmbZEBvBdP-D-idTpgXkecir_xQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Studebaker%2B660W.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="660" height="291" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BpweNfsxY8c/Xr694lhK0oI/AAAAAAAAi-E/7T2VUZNmbZEBvBdP-D-idTpgXkecir_xQCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Studebaker%2B660W.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><i>Idaho Studebaker with Stories to Tell</i></b></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada (2010)</b></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, May 15, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<b>"WARNING: Too quiet on the copper front? Red metal at currency-like volatility!" </b><i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i><b> March 4, 2020 [Comex copper fell into Bear Country March 13, 2020] </b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,700 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $15.14 per ounce</b></div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a> (4/28/2020, Kitco News)</b><b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Morning Miners!</div>
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It is a rough morning when U.S. industrial production numbers are reported to be the lowest percentage decline since 1919 - that's grandpa's time! </div>
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<i>The Federal Reserve said Friday that its industrial production index tumbled a record 11.2% in April. Manufacturing output also posted a record drop — 13.7% — as production of cars, trucks and auto parts plummeted more than 70%. Production of aerospace and other transportation products, metals and furniture fell around 20%. Output dropped 6.1% at mines and 0.9% at utilities.
</i>(Paul Wiseman, Associated Press, 5/15/2010)</div>
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Also, it looks like U.S./China trade tensions are back in the headlines. The elephant in the room continues to be covid-19 as states and communities slowly re-open for business. </div>
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All of the market uncertainty this produces fuels investor demand for gold. I believe it is up and away for $1,800+ gold; taking out the 2011 $1,900+ all-time record is in the cards too for 2020. Look for my <a href="https://elkodaily.com/mining/#tracking-source=main-nav"><b>Elko Daily Free Press</b></a> column on this subject in the near future. It will also be included in the upcoming Mining Quarterly.</div>
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June Comex gold is trading at <b>$1,755.1 per ounce</b> (7:44 am Eureka Time).<span style="text-align: center;"> It pulled back slightly from an earlier morning high of <b>$1,757.2</b>.</span></div>
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Comex July copper is presently <b>$2.3403 per pound</b>. Copper retreated nearly 5% this week [see Weekly Summaries below].</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-05-15/Wall-St-Main-St-both-look-for-gold-prices-to-keep-shining.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div>
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<i>On a morning when industrial production reports a 101-year record percent decline and China trade tensions re-build, it is difficult to be cheery about equities. Gold has been the benefactor as safe-haven interest propels prices to the $1,750-level on a path to $1,800 per ounce.</i></div>
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<i>Notably, silver which has lagged gold, is showing some spark too above $16 per ounce. I believe it likely that gold will make the $1,780-level next week with silver looking above $17, a level not seen since early-March.
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<i>The key chart to monitor is the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio (AUSP) as investor interest in gold ETFs continues to dominate the global demand for the lustrous metal </i>[see Chart to Watch below]<i>. The March 23 peak in this gold ratio is also the date inflation-adjusted 10-year Treasury rates turned negative (i.e. real rates), both bullish indications for gold.* </i></div>
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<i>However, there is a caution for the yellow metal. Investors can leave gold positions as quickly as they rush to safe-havens. This means that gold-backed investment products inherit the volatility of stock markets. For example, a breakthrough achieved in the search for covid-19 vaccines and/or therapeutics could produce a rapid decline in gold price and rise in equities.</i></div>
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<i>Fortunately, gold does have substantial headroom above a trend of higher-lows in the AUSP established October 1, 2018. If such news proves ephemeral, this trend should continue until true virus prevention/containment is achieved.</i></div>
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<i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div>
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* 10-year U.S. real rate -.47%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.564%, France -0.06% and Japan -0.02%</div>
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Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below. The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog).</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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There is a dandy website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning:</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 1,465,047 covid-19 cases; 87,299 deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 6,499 covid-19 cases; 339 deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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The good news is that the curves continue to flatten [<b>Weekly rates 5/08 to 5/15</b>, calculated by the ole Colonel]:</div>
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<b>U.S. covid-19 deaths double every 39.45 days (last week </b><b>25.9</b><b> days, previous week </b><b>20.2</b><b>)</b></div>
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<b>Nevada covid-19 deaths double every 33.27 days (last week </b><b>25.9</b><b> days, previous week </b><b>27.7</b><b>)</b></div>
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For a weekly doubling rate, the bigger the number the better. Higher numbers mean more days before doubling!</div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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Click on the "United States of America" tab to find individual states. The "deaths-per-day" chart projections give the best time duration estimate because death is a lagging indicator (please bear with me, I know this is a grim subject). <b>The models have been recently updated through August 4th given early openings in some states:</b></div>
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<b>U.S.A. - peak deaths-per-day April 15th; deaths-per-day go to 108 August 4th</b></div>
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<b>Nevada - peak deaths-per-day April 7th; deaths-per-day go to zero July 8th</b></div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Social distancing is currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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July Comex Copper retreated this week, presently trading at <b>$2.3430 per pound. </b></div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading up at $28.31 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> -$37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, 4/20/2020.</div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). A low number is good. A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 0.7098 </b>below both the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and the 5-year average<b> (0.78)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China, but let's keep an eye for any moves higher (click on chart for larger size).</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-odJlNnHT33E/Xr7DLUJ5XJI/AAAAAAAAi-Q/QnoGfWDekA0EWTK0Y1qWtSIWinkNuCYJQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/C2rD%2B%252805-15-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1500" height="197" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-odJlNnHT33E/Xr7DLUJ5XJI/AAAAAAAAi-Q/QnoGfWDekA0EWTK0Y1qWtSIWinkNuCYJQCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/C2rD%2B%252805-15-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night on the Monday Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<b>To ponder:</b> In numerology the year 2020 reduces to the number 4 - a dreaded number in Chinese culture. And yes, it is the Year of the Rat...a double-whammy for sure.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Remember, you can register with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/"><b>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)</b></a> for updates by e-mail. Look at the situation summary tab on their website for updated U.S. infections and deaths.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is above <b>$16 per ounce (see Weekly Summaries above).</b></div>
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Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 103.9 silver is historically very, very cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at 68.6 ounce per ounce.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is an improving 0.88 (i.e. on average, the daily % rise or fall of silver price is beta times the % change in gold price). You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher </span></b><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bgfZLdWJEgc/Xr7EoM8HUgI/AAAAAAAAi-w/f74G75f873oJmGXQQ1TsoxqX3VcrAti0wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/GSR%2B%252805-15-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="290" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bgfZLdWJEgc/Xr7EoM8HUgI/AAAAAAAAi-w/f74G75f873oJmGXQQ1TsoxqX3VcrAti0wCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/GSR%2B%252805-15-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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Stay tuned.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher, <b>yesterday's number is 1.06%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see Weekly Summary Charts) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pHPRXuKRqfU/Xr7E97B9c6I/AAAAAAAAi-8/92L7qdhWvwAhZeB12zsh0pUvA_Nohf2LACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/10-yr%2Bbreakeven%2B%252805-14-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1091" data-original-width="1500" height="290" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pHPRXuKRqfU/Xr7E97B9c6I/AAAAAAAAi-8/92L7qdhWvwAhZeB12zsh0pUvA_Nohf2LACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/10-yr%2Bbreakeven%2B%252805-14-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.6175 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio continues to maintain lots and lots of daylight above that trend - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Six Things to Watch in 2020</span></i></b></div>
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The ole Colonel's beer bet <b>(won on an intraday basis Tuesday, January 7th!)</b>. I have since revised it [parenthesis]:</div>
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<b>Gold will break </b><b>[on a closing basis]</b><b> $1,600 per ounce before the 4th of July 2020</b></div>
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We'll keep the bet alive by looking at closing instead of intraday prices - what a sport! <b>[won on a closing basis February 18th]</b></div>
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My top six things to watch for 2020:</div>
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<li><b>Copper prices </b>- I'd like to see copper prices push us above $6,500 per tonne ($2.95 per pound). A fall below the $6,000-level ($2.72) would be a bad sign - for example, U.S./China trade Phase I in trouble or escalating geo-political unrest. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has pushed copper below $6,000 per tonne</b>].</li>
<li><b>Chinese yuan</b> - strengthening below 7 USDCNY is a good sign that their economy and trade are on an improving track (<i>Weekly Summary</i>). Sustained weakening above the 7-level is a red flag. <b>[Chinese yuan is above 7 USDCNY again]</b></li>
<li><b>U.S. dollar</b> - will it remain strong or begin a period of decline? Foreign demand for Treasury debt has kept the dollar strong but rising U.S. deficits and countries trying to move away from dollar dependence (e.g., China, Russia) are countervailing forces not to be ignored. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made its high September 30 this year and has been in a downtrend of lower-lows since (99.38 September high). This reports tracks the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) (27.01 September high, see <i>Weekly Summary</i> below for latest price). Finally, overseas interest in Treasurys has been fueled by negative interest rates abroad. This report monitors the German 10-year bund (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) as a benchmark for foreign Treasury demand. <b>[Update: Covid-19 has caused liquidations as market participants rush to the U.S. dollar for safety. This has surged the U.S. Dollar Index above 100]</b></li>
<li><b>Interest Rates</b> - there is an almost uncanny relationship between the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury and the copper-to-gold ratio (CGR, <i>Weekly Summary</i>). I've written about this extensively since 2017 ( see <i>The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries </i>below). <a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2019/12/gold-1520-silver-181-copper-225-giddy.html">Bottom line, a rising CGR signals higher interest rates for 2020.</a> [<b>Update: Covid-19 appears to have reversed the trend higher, 10-year Treasury is near record lows</b>].</li>
<li><b>Real rates </b>- The 10-year inflation adjusted Treasury yield, or real rate, is the difference between the nominal yield and inflation expectations (aka 10-year "break-even" rate). Since gold is a non-interest earning assets it performs best when real rates are near zero or negative. This report tracks real rates (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) and inflation expectations (<i>Inflation Watch</i>). Since gold is often considered an inflation hedge it is prudent to track both. In 2020, inflation may pick up (gold bullish) but if interest rates rise faster, an increasing real rate dampens interest in in the yellow metal (gold bearish). <b>[Real rates have been negative since March 23, 2020]</b></li>
<li><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio (AUSP)</b> - Gold's relationship with equities is key to monitor. Gold lost value to the S&P 500 from Donald Trump's election until October of 2018. Since then it has regained value in a trend of higher-lows (see <i>Chart to Watch)</i>. We entered 2020 with that trend higher challenged. Falling below trend would be a very bearish sign for gold. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has put the AUSP solidly above trend</b>].</li>
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Predictions aside, 2020 will no doubt be an exciting year in the markets. Get ready for a roller-coaster ride, pardner. I remain bullish gold!</div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div>
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I've been searching old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. So far, I haven't found any newpaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). There are four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That's seven total for the County, still </div>
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digging [UPDATE below puts the death count at 38 confirmed which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922].</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I've been informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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<b>UPDATE April 18, 2020</b>: After posting the above, Rhonda Shandler Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled on the very same subject. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-29009025584443462432020-05-08T10:58:00.000-07:002020-05-08T13:14:05.432-07:00Gold $1,715 on Historic Jobs Report: April Loss 20.5 Million, Unemployment 14.7%<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WXhmd2_VX8g/XrV_9VCOb8I/AAAAAAAAi6U/VWmUZQLbsA46EaUtNBc7tPOokdOpmAt1QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Old%2BStone%2BHouse%2B%25282006%2529%2B660W.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="660" height="266" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WXhmd2_VX8g/XrV_9VCOb8I/AAAAAAAAi6U/VWmUZQLbsA46EaUtNBc7tPOokdOpmAt1QCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Old%2BStone%2BHouse%2B%25282006%2529%2B660W.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Old Timer House</b></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada (2006)</b></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, May 08, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<b>"WARNING: Too quiet on the copper front? Red metal at currency-like volatility!" </b><i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i><b> March 4, 2020 [Comex copper fell into Bear Country March 13, 2020] </b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,700 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $15.14 per ounce</b></div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a> (4/28/2020, Kitco News)</b><b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Morning Miners!</div>
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I awoke this morning to a historic monthly jobs report (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf"><b>BLS news release</b></a>). <b>The 5:30 am (Eureka Time) announcement showed a loss of 20.5 million jobs in April and 14.7% headline unemployment.</b> In markets, everything reduces to a number. It is sobering to remember that every job loss has a name and a family associated with it. Although many believe they will regain their employment by July or sooner, there are those that have thrown in the towel. <b>The unemployment number U6 that lassos everyone including discouraged workers is a shocking 22.8%.</b> These are Depression era numbers. I remember the U6 hit 17% territory during the 2007-2009 financial crisis - this is worse.</div>
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Stock markets rallied on a belief that this may be as bad as it gets. June Comex gold held above $1,700 after a pre-announcement run at $1,734.4 per ounce.<span style="text-align: center;"> It has retreated since presently trading at </span><b style="text-align: center;">$1,714.9 per ounce</b><span style="text-align: center;"><b> (10:30 AM)</b>.</span></div>
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Copper continues its rally of higher-lows that started March 19. Comex July copper is presently <b>$2.4045 per pound</b>. Things are slowly improving for the red metal.</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-05-08/Wall-St-Main-St-expect-more-gold-price-gains-in-wake-of-poor-U-S-jobs-data.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div>
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<i>On a morning of historic losses in the U.S. labor market (as reported by the April employment report), domestic stocks pop and gold remains resilient. Although on a weekly basis the yellow metal has lost value to key commodities, it is up 1% or better against the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and Indian rupee </i>[see Weekly Summary Charts below]<i>. </i></div>
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<i>The loss of 20.5 million jobs is better than the expected 21.5 million and there appears to be some lessening in the recent U.S./China flare up. Truthfully, these are at best "incremental" improvements to a horrendous situation. This morning's optimistic rush of "risk-on" sentiment could as easily be replaced by the next bad headline with a "risk-off" rush to the exits. However, the CBOE VIX or "fear index" has dropped below 30 for the first time since early March signalling equity markets are pricing in "we've seen the worst." </i></div>
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<i>The covid-19 viral infection of global markets has dulled demand for physical gold in China and India, and some central banks have eased on new purchases (e.g., Russia). This void has been amply filled by investors seeking safe-haven. This makes gold all the more sensitive to moves in the stock markets. Looking forward then, volatility in gold price should be expected to continue. I believe it likely gold will make a run at the $1,750-level next week with silver poking its head above $16 per ounce.</i></div>
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<i>Bullish for gold, interest rates are still very favorable - the </i>[German]<i> Bund remains underwater now joined by France and Japan. Although U.S. 10-year inflation expectations remain low, real rates are still negative.*
These are the strange times of coronavirus.
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* 10-year Inflation expectations 1.08%; 10-year U.S. real rate -.46%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.54%, France -0.04% and Japan -0.01%</div>
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Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below. The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog).</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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There is a dandy website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning:</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 1,297,003 covid-19 cases; 77,190 deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 5,766 covid-19 cases; 293 deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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The good news is that the curves continue to flatten [<b>Weekly rates 5/01 to 5/08</b>, calculated by the ole Colonel]:</div>
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<b>U.S. covid-19 deaths double every 25.9 days (last week </b><b>20.2</b><b> days, previous week </b><b>13.7</b><b>)</b></div>
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<b>Nevada covid-19 deaths double every 25.9 days (last week </b><b>27.7</b><b> days, previous week </b><b>15.0</b><b>)</b></div>
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<b>Notably, Nevada and U.S. have numerically equal doubling rates, Nevada is down from last week's rate - something to watch</b>. For a weekly doubling rate, the bigger the number the better. Higher numbers mean more days before doubling!</div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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Click on the "United States of America" tab to find individual states. The "deaths-per-day" chart projections give the best time duration estimate because death is a lagging indicator (please bear with me, I know this is a grim subject). <b>The models have been recently updated through August 4th given early openings in some states:</b></div>
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<b>U.S.A. - peak deaths-per-day April 15th; deaths-per-day go to 74 August 4th</b></div>
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<b>Nevada - peak deaths-per-day April 7th; deaths-per-day go to zero July 8th</b></div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Social distancing is currently our only weapon to change the curve's shape. </div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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July Comex Copper has some giddy up at <b>$2.4045 per pound. </b>In case you missed it last week<b>, </b><a href="http://mining.com/">Mining.com</a> column on how coronavirus is affecting mining:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.mining.com/chart-covid-19-disrupts-6-9-billion-of-global-mining-output/">CHART: Covid-19 disrupts $6.9 billion of global mining output</a><b>(<a href="http://mining.com/">Mining.com</a>, 4/30/2010)</b></b></div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading up at $24.02 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> -$37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, 4/20/2020.</div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). A low number is good. A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 0.8711 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th and very near the 5-year average<b> (0.78)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China, but let's keep an eye for any moves higher (click on chart for larger size).</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AHMDbCvCEjI/XrWUGRo6hMI/AAAAAAAAi6g/D0L0ElL856AWKtyMn4ulrCF758ZnHdLdgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/C2rD%2B%252805-08-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1500" height="197" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AHMDbCvCEjI/XrWUGRo6hMI/AAAAAAAAi6g/D0L0ElL856AWKtyMn4ulrCF758ZnHdLdgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/C2rD%2B%252805-08-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night on the Monday Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<b>To ponder:</b> In numerology the year 2020 reduces to the number 4 - a dreaded number in Chinese culture. And yes, it is the Year of the Rat...a double-whammy for sure.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Remember, you can register with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/"><b>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)</b></a> for updates by e-mail. Look at the situation summary tab on their website for updated U.S. infections and deaths.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SlMGuPuRdjM/XrWUfE7KhBI/AAAAAAAAi6o/3klDmuDh7rMT0OiDl4bKIPNL_no2-2y-ACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Weekly%2BSummary%2BV%2B%252805-08-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1409" data-original-width="1500" height="375" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SlMGuPuRdjM/XrWUfE7KhBI/AAAAAAAAi6o/3klDmuDh7rMT0OiDl4bKIPNL_no2-2y-ACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Weekly%2BSummary%2BV%2B%252805-08-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VzND_7w1QJM/XrWUmSUvnyI/AAAAAAAAi6s/FNxnH2YPWdIWZ0rzT3tCiwde1RMh4yYkgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252805-08-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1062" data-original-width="1500" height="282" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VzND_7w1QJM/XrWUmSUvnyI/AAAAAAAAi6s/FNxnH2YPWdIWZ0rzT3tCiwde1RMh4yYkgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Weekly%2BSummary%2BVC%2B%252805-08-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is above <b>$15 per ounce (see Weekly Summaries above).</b></div>
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Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 109.3 silver is historically very, very cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at 68.6 ounce per ounce.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is a dismal but improving 0.56 (i.e. on average, the daily % rise or fall of silver price is beta times the % change in gold price). You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher </span></b><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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Stay tuned.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher, <b>yesterday's number is 1.08%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see Weekly Summary Charts) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5908 below the high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio continues to maintain lots and lots of daylight above that trend - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Six Things to Watch in 2020</span></i></b></div>
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The ole Colonel's beer bet <b>(won on an intraday basis Tuesday, January 7th!)</b>. I have since revised it [parenthesis]:</div>
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<b>Gold will break </b><b>[on a closing basis]</b><b> $1,600 per ounce before the 4th of July 2020</b></div>
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We'll keep the bet alive by looking at closing instead of intraday prices - what a sport! <b>[won on a closing basis February 18th]</b></div>
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My top six things to watch for 2020:</div>
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<li><b>Copper prices </b>- I'd like to see copper prices push us above $6,500 per tonne ($2.95 per pound). A fall below the $6,000-level ($2.72) would be a bad sign - for example, U.S./China trade Phase I in trouble or escalating geo-political unrest. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has pushed copper below $6,000 per tonne</b>].</li>
<li><b>Chinese yuan</b> - strengthening below 7 USDCNY is a good sign that their economy and trade are on an improving track (<i>Weekly Summary</i>). Sustained weakening above the 7-level is a red flag. <b>[Chinese yuan is above 7 USDCNY again]</b></li>
<li><b>U.S. dollar</b> - will it remain strong or begin a period of decline? Foreign demand for Treasury debt has kept the dollar strong but rising U.S. deficits and countries trying to move away from dollar dependence (e.g., China, Russia) are countervailing forces not to be ignored. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made its high September 30 this year and has been in a downtrend of lower-lows since (99.38 September high). This reports tracks the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) (27.01 September high, see <i>Weekly Summary</i> below for latest price). Finally, overseas interest in Treasurys has been fueled by negative interest rates abroad. This report monitors the German 10-year bund (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) as a benchmark for foreign Treasury demand. <b>[Update: Covid-19 has caused liquidations as market participants rush to the U.S. dollar for safety. This has surged the U.S. Dollar Index]</b></li>
<li><b>Interest Rates</b> - there is an almost uncanny relationship between the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury and the copper-to-gold ratio (CGR, <i>Weekly Summary</i>). I've written about this extensively since 2017 ( see <i>The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries </i>below). <a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2019/12/gold-1520-silver-181-copper-225-giddy.html">Bottom line, a rising CGR signals higher interest rates for 2020.</a> [<b>Update: Covid-19 appears to have reversed the trend higher, 10-year Treasury is near record lows</b>].</li>
<li><b>Real rates </b>- The 10-year inflation adjusted Treasury yield, or real rate, is the difference between the nominal yield and inflation expectations (aka 10-year "break-even" rate). Since gold is a non-interest bearing assets it performs best when real rates are near zero or negative. This report tracks real rates (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) and inflation expectations (<i>Inflation Watch</i>). Since gold is often considered an inflation hedge it is prudent to track both. In 2020, inflation may pick up (gold bullish) but if interest rates rise faster, an increasing real rate dampens interest in in the yellow metal (gold bearish).</li>
<li><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio (AUSP)</b> - Gold's relationship with equities is key to monitor. Gold lost value to the S&P 500 from Donald Trump's election until October of 2018. Since then it has regained value in a trend of higher-lows (see <i>Chart to Watch)</i>. We entered 2020 with that trend higher challenged. Falling below trend would be a very bearish sign for gold. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has put the AUSP solidly above trend</b>].</li>
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Predictions aside, 2020 will no doubt be an exciting year in the markets. Get ready for a roller-coaster ride, pardner. I remain bullish gold!</div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div>
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I've been searching old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. So far, I haven't found any newpaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). There are four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That's seven total for the County, still </div>
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digging [UPDATE below puts the death count at 38 confirmed which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922].</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I've been informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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<b>UPDATE April 18, 2020</b>: After posting the above, Rhonda Shandler Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled on the very same subject. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-36988587279003154372020-05-01T10:56:00.000-07:002020-05-01T10:58:20.530-07:00Gold Recovers $1,700; Hats Off to USMA Cadet Wyatt Espell!<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xj7WdRp4-54/XqxCiX_c_LI/AAAAAAAAi3g/fxlC5-4J58gEl2-1R-SRHBxE6ncgj8_AACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1-Wyatt%2BEspell%2BFirstie%2BWest%2BPoint%2B4%2Bmp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1068" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xj7WdRp4-54/XqxCiX_c_LI/AAAAAAAAi3g/fxlC5-4J58gEl2-1R-SRHBxE6ncgj8_AACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/1-Wyatt%2BEspell%2BFirstie%2BWest%2BPoint%2B4%2Bmp.jpg" width="266" /></a></div>
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<b>First-Class Cadet Wyatt Espell Graduates </b></div>
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<b>USMA, West Point</b></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, May 01, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<b>"WARNING: Too quiet on the copper front? Red metal at currency-like volatility!" </b><i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i><b> March 4, 2020 [Comex copper fell into Bear Country March 13, 2020] </b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,700 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $15.14 per ounce</b></div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a> (4/28/2020, Kitco News)</b><b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Morning Miners!</div>
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First things first.</div>
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Hats off to Cadet Wyatt Espell! He and his other proud "Firstie" (First-Class) Cadets will return for graduation ceremonies at the United States Military Academy at West Point on June 13th. Wyatt is the son of Ron and Peggy Espell and nephew of Ron and Kathy Damele.</div>
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Ron Espell is well known in the Northern Nevada mining community with more than 30 years of mining and exploration experience throughout North America, Australia, Africa, and South America. He did the full mine permitting of the McEwen Mining Gold Bar Mine and is currently doing environmental work for Nevada Vanadium's Gibellini Project in the south-west corner of Eureka County. His uncle Ron Damele is the Public Works Director for Eureka County.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-N1mOI756Uuc/Xqxd7vA6j8I/AAAAAAAAi4w/_x6plbSHEtk9hKMSXEA4DkIpWZFcutK2ACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1-West%2BPoint%2Bgraduation.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="200" data-original-width="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-N1mOI756Uuc/Xqxd7vA6j8I/AAAAAAAAi4w/_x6plbSHEtk9hKMSXEA4DkIpWZFcutK2ACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1-West%2BPoint%2Bgraduation.jpg" /></a></div>
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Here is Cadet Espell's graduation announcement highlighting his interests and accomplishments in environmental engineering:</div>
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<i>Wyatt Espell - CDT Espell, son of Ron and Peggy Espell and nephew of Ron and Kathy Damele will be graduating from the United States Military Academy at West Point (USMA) on June 13, 2020 with a Bachelor of Science degree in Environmental Engineering. Wyatt’s primary academic focus was USMA’s Reverse Osmosis (RO) water treatment research both at West Point and at TARDEC, the United States Armed Forces' research and development facility for advanced technology in ground systems. CDT Espell developed the first ever computer model design for a Reverse Osmosis Water Purification Unit (ROWPU), a model that TARDEC had yet to develop, which modeled pressure and flow systems within the testing apparatus (factors not visible or recordable when running). CDT Espell received the prestigious, Honor Society of Phi Kappa Phi-Peter L. Zhu Scholastic Achievement Award for his research. CDT Espell will be reporting to Joint Base Lewis-McChord as his first assignment as a Second Lieutenant following his second phase of Basic Officer Leader Course (BOLC) at Fort Leonard Wood starting in July 2020.</i></div>
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Cadet Espell received the Peter L. Zhu Scholastic Achievement Award on April 20th:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CPRjkjaadis/XqxcjMfmAeI/AAAAAAAAi4k/qudy864tdbY_Ub1bnGrHxVjNhdQRo3SxACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Phi%2BKappa%2BPhi%2B-%2BPeter%2BL%2BZhu%2BScholastic%2BAchievement%2BAward%2B-%2BCDT%2BWyatt%2BEspell.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1183" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CPRjkjaadis/XqxcjMfmAeI/AAAAAAAAi4k/qudy864tdbY_Ub1bnGrHxVjNhdQRo3SxACNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Phi%2BKappa%2BPhi%2B-%2BPeter%2BL%2BZhu%2BScholastic%2BAchievement%2BAward%2B-%2BCDT%2BWyatt%2BEspell.jpg" width="236" /></a></div>
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It is a real honor to have one of America's future leaders come from our land, raised so proudly beneath Western skies. The best to Wyatt and his family.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Gold & Copper This Morning</span></i></b></div>
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June Comex gold hit a peak of $1,737.0 per ounce yesterday. It has retreated since presently trading at <b>$1,706.6 per ounce</b> (9:30 AM Eureka Time).</div>
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Copper continues to hold its own on with rally of higher-lows that started March 19. Comex July copper is presently <b>$2.3120 per pound</b>. Things are slowly improving although we had a scare last week when copper prices dropped with plummeting oil. An informative <a href="http://mining.com/">Mining.com</a> column below gauges the impact of coronavirus on global mining.</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-05-01/Wall-St-Main-St-look-for-bounce-in-gold-prices.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div>
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<i>On a morning after Apple's Tim Cook pulled guidance using a dirty windshield metaphor for near-term "lack of visibility" and amid new U.S. tariff threats against China, equities stumbled into May after the best month in 3 decades. But Comex June gold stumbled too - a shocking $61 per ounce drop peak-to-trough from yesterday in the early hours.</i></div>
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<i>Gold has since recovered but is still below the key $1,700-level.
I believe there are some end-of-month effects here and gold should return to $1,700 per ounce or higher next week with silver following to $15.14 per ounce.</i></div>
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<i>Why? The environment that Tim Cook describes is one where gold thrives - uncertainty driven by the viral influence of covid-19 on global markets. Interest rates are still favorable - the Bund remains underwater and is now re-joined by France and Japan after the latter two have enjoyed marginally positive 10-year rates for some time. Although U.S. 10-year inflation expectations remain low, real rates are still negative.* </i></div>
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<i>On a week when gold lost 2.5-plus % in dollar value and retreated against key commodities, major currencies and equities, my belief is that all the fat is off and it is time to rally! </i>[see Weekly Summary Charts]<i> </i></div>
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<i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div>
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* 10-year Inflation expectations 1.07%; 10-year U.S. real rate -.42%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.59%, France -0.12% and Japan -0.04%
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Since it continues to dominate markets, a covid-19 summary is updated below. The ole Colonel has also included the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County from previous posts (bottom of blog).</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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There is a dandy website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning:</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 1,100,313 covid-19 cases; 64,018 deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 4,998 covid-19 cases; 243 deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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The good news is that the curves continue to flatten [<b>Weekly rates 4/24 to 5/01</b>, calculated by the ole Colonel]:</div>
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<b>U.S. covid-19 deaths double every 20.2 days (last week 13.7 days, previous week 7.14)</b></div>
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<b>Nevada covid-19 deaths double every 27.7 days (last week 15.0 days, previous week 9.73)</b></div>
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For weekly death rates, the bigger the number the better. Higher numbers mean more days before doubling!</div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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Click on the "United States of America" tab to find individual states. The "deaths-per-day" chart projections give the best time duration estimate because death is a lagging indicator (please bear with me, I know this is a grim subject):</div>
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<b>U.S.A. - peak deaths-per-day April 15th; deaths-per-day go to zero June 30th</b></div>
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<b>Nevada - peak deaths-per-day April 7th; deaths-per-day go to zero May 13th </b></div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Social distancing is our only weapon to change the curve's shape - the above numbers assume we do everything right from now forward.</div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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July Comex Copper hanging in there at <b>$2.3120 per pound </b>after the scare last week with plummeting oil prices. <a href="http://mining.com/">Mining.com</a> column on how coronavirus is affecting mining:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.mining.com/chart-covid-19-disrupts-6-9-billion-of-global-mining-output/">CHART: Covid-19 disrupts $6.9 billion of global mining output</a><b>(<a href="http://mining.com/">Mining.com</a>, 4/30/2010)</b></b></div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading at $19.53 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> -$37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, 4/20/2020.</div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). A low number is good. A bottom of <b>0.3012</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 1.0492 </b>below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th but above the 5-year average<b> (0.79)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China, but let's keep an eye for any moves higher (click on chart for larger size)</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qydsY_sL2Ug/XqxJ4vliS1I/AAAAAAAAi3s/neAYHKfgU5oYPwM6eFWJugBZpqaeWO7jwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/C2rDI%252805-01-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1500" height="197" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qydsY_sL2Ug/XqxJ4vliS1I/AAAAAAAAi3s/neAYHKfgU5oYPwM6eFWJugBZpqaeWO7jwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/C2rDI%252805-01-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night on the Monday Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<b>To ponder:</b> In numerology the year 2020 reduces to the number 4 - a dreaded number in Chinese culture. And yes, it is the Year of the Rat...a double-whammy for sure.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Remember, you can register with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/"><b>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)</b></a> for updates by e-mail. Look at the situation summary tab on their website for updated U.S. infections and deaths.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-H7CpaNweEhU/XqxMItqOtbI/AAAAAAAAi34/VIY9RBZoZio_7uGhlepVqGmhh08d-r0GwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Weekly%2BSummary%2BChart%2BV%2B%252805-01-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1404" data-original-width="1500" height="373" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-H7CpaNweEhU/XqxMItqOtbI/AAAAAAAAi34/VIY9RBZoZio_7uGhlepVqGmhh08d-r0GwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Weekly%2BSummary%2BChart%2BV%2B%252805-01-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AojxH3sHbJc/XqxMQM4tYsI/AAAAAAAAi38/BLptyRNX_WARG8-BHchuVgce-RLWXHLZwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Weekly%2BSummary%2BChart%2BVC%2B%252805-01-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1030" data-original-width="1500" height="273" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AojxH3sHbJc/XqxMQM4tYsI/AAAAAAAAi38/BLptyRNX_WARG8-BHchuVgce-RLWXHLZwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Weekly%2BSummary%2BChart%2BVC%2B%252805-01-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is above <b>$15 per ounce (see Weekly Summaries above).</b></div>
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Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 112.3 silver is historically very, very cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at 68.6 ounce per ounce.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is a dismal but slightly improved 0.39 (i.e. on average, the daily % rise or fall of silver price is beta times the % change in gold price). You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher </span></b><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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Stay tuned.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher, <b>yesterday's number is 1.07%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see Weekly Summary Charts) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5915 below the recent high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio continues to put lots and lots of daylight above that trend - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Six Things to Watch in 2020</span></i></b></div>
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The ole Colonel's beer bet <b>(won on an intraday basis Tuesday, January 7th!)</b>. I have since revised it [parenthesis]:</div>
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<b>Gold will break </b><b>[on a closing basis]</b><b> $1,600 per ounce before the 4th of July 2020</b></div>
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We'll keep the bet alive by looking at closing instead of intraday prices - what a sport! <b>[won on a closing basis February 18th]</b></div>
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My top six things to watch for 2020:</div>
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<li><b>Copper prices </b>- I'd like to see copper prices push us above $6,500 per tonne ($2.95 per pound). A fall below the $6,000-level ($2.72) would be a bad sign - for example, U.S./China trade Phase I in trouble or escalating geo-political unrest. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has pushed copper below $6,000 per tonne</b>].</li>
<li><b>Chinese yuan</b> - strengthening below 7 USDCNY is a good sign that their economy and trade are on an improving track (<i>Weekly Summary</i>). Sustained weakening above the 7-level is a red flag. <b>[Chinese yuan is above 7 USDCNY again]</b></li>
<li><b>U.S. dollar</b> - will it remain strong or begin a period of decline? Foreign demand for Treasury debt has kept the dollar strong but rising U.S. deficits and countries trying to move away from dollar dependence (e.g., China, Russia) are countervailing forces not to be ignored. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made its high September 30 this year and has been in a downtrend of lower-lows since (99.38 September high). This reports tracks the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) (27.01 September high, see <i>Weekly Summary</i> below for latest price). Finally, overseas interest in Treasurys has been fueled by negative interest rates abroad. This report monitors the German 10-year bund (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) as a benchmark for foreign Treasury demand. <b>[Update: Covid-19 has caused liquidations as market participants rush to the U.S. dollar for safety. This has surged the U.S. Dollar Index]</b></li>
<li><b>Interest Rates</b> - there is an almost uncanny relationship between the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury and the copper-to-gold ratio (CGR, <i>Weekly Summary</i>). I've written about this extensively since 2017 ( see <i>The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries </i>below). <a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2019/12/gold-1520-silver-181-copper-225-giddy.html">Bottom line, a rising CGR signals higher interest rates for 2020.</a> [<b>Update: Covid-19 appears to have reversed the trend higher, 10-year Treasury is near record lows</b>].</li>
<li><b>Real rates </b>- The 10-year inflation adjusted Treasury yield, or real rate, is the difference between the nominal yield and inflation expectations (aka 10-year "break-even" rate). Since gold is a non-interest bearing assets it performs best when real rates are near zero or negative. This report tracks real rates (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) and inflation expectations (<i>Inflation Watch</i>). Since gold is often considered an inflation hedge it is prudent to track both. In 2020, inflation may pick up (gold bullish) but if interest rates rise faster, an increasing real rate dampens interest in in the yellow metal (gold bearish).</li>
<li><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio (AUSP)</b> - Gold's relationship with equities is key to monitor. Gold lost value to the S&P 500 from Donald Trump's election until October of 2018. Since then it has regained value in a trend of higher-lows (see <i>Chart to Watch)</i>. We entered 2020 with that trend higher challenged. Falling below trend would be a very bearish sign for gold. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has put the AUSP solidly above trend</b>].</li>
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Predictions aside, 2020 will no doubt be an exciting year in the markets. Get ready for a roller-coaster ride, pardner. I remain bullish gold!</div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-29/Gundlach-copper-gold-indicator-low-volatility-in-unexpected-places.html" style="font-weight: bold;">Gundlach copper-gold indicator: low volatility in unexpected places</a><b> </b>(4/28/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div>
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I've been searching old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. So far, I haven't found any newpaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). There are four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That's seven total for the County, still </div>
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digging [UPDATE below puts the death count at 38 confirmed which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922].</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I've been informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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<b>UPDATE April 18, 2020</b>: After posting the above, Rhonda Shandler Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled on the very same subject. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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Photos by Mariana Titus if not otherwise noted</div>
colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-25440915304503608902020-04-24T10:34:00.000-07:002020-04-24T21:27:43.386-07:00Gold $1,788.8 This Week, on the Trail to $1,800+; Copper Frisky $2.33<div style="text-align: center;">
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<b><i>Old Timer on Lone Mountain</i></b></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, April 24, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<b>"WARNING: Too quiet on the copper front? Red metal at currency-like volatility!" </b><i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i><b> March 4, 2020 [Comex copper fell into Bear Country March 13, 2020] </b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,780 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $15.87 per ounce</b></div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020)<b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Morning Miners!</div>
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Markets continue to be driven by the pace of the covid-19 pandemic but there are some encouraging signs. First the bad news - the U.S. is on pace to have more virus-related deaths in 5 months than the loss of U.S. soldiers in the 8-year Vietnam War. The latest models now predict the covid-19 total to be over 67,000 versus Vietnam's loss of 58,220 lives.</div>
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The good news for Nevada is that we are flattening the curve at a faster rate. One week ago deaths were doubling every 10 days; now that rate is every 15 days. Both numbers are better than the national statistics and Northern Nevada is faring far better than its southern neighbors. The models indicate deaths-per-day for the Silver State should go to zero May 11th, much sooner than the July 2nd U.S. projection. </div>
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A more complete covid-19 summary is included below. The ole Colonel has also updated the overview of the 1918-1919 Influenza impact on Eureka County.</div>
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Comex gold hit a peak of $1,788.8 per ounce yesterday. It has retreated since presently trading at <b>$1,733.3 per ounce</b> (10:08 AM Eureka Time).</div>
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Copper continues to be frisky with a rally of higher-lows that started March 19. Comex July copper is presently <b>$2.3330 per pound</b>. Things are slowly improving although we had a scare Tuesday when copper prices dropped with plummeting oil (see <a href="http://mining.com/">Mining.com</a> column below).</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-04-24/Wall-St-Main-St-look-for-gold-prices-to-strengthen.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey</a> </b>this morning:</div>
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<i>In a week where the West Texas Intermediate crude front month contract went negative and unemployment claims climbed to 4.35 million in 5 weeks, gold finds plenty of market uncertainty to resume its rally to $1,800 per ounce and perhaps higher in the coming months. This condition is likely to persist until an effective vaccine is produced to battle covid-19.</i></div>
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<i>Weekly gains for the yellow metal were broad; relative value surged compared to equities and key commodities </i>[see weekly Summary Charts below]<i> For example, Comex gold led both the S&P 500 and copper by nearly 5%.
Bullishly, The interest rate picture remains favorable for gold with 10-year real rates and the benchmark German Bund remaining depressed a negative 50 basis points.* </i></div>
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<i>Gold's strength has been all the more impressive against a resiliently strong dollar. The U.S. dollar Index is still above 100 but will eventually encounter the headwinds of expanding monetary stimulus.** Eventual dollar weakness will support higher gold prices.</i></div>
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<i>As a next step higher, it is likely Comex gold will test the $1,780-level again next week with silver following to $15.87 per ounce.</i></div>
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<i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div>
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* 10-year U.S. real rate -.47%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.46%, France +0.04% and Japan -0.03% </div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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There is a dandy website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning:</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 888,881 covid-19 cases; 50,369 deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 4,208 covid-19 cases; 189 deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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The good news is that the curves are flattening [<b>Weekly rates 4/17 to 4/24</b>, calculated by the ole Colonel]:</div>
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<b>U.S. covid-19 deaths double every 13.7 days (last week 7.14 days)</b></div>
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<b>Nevada covid-19 deaths double every 15.0 days (last week 9.73 days)</b></div>
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For weekly death rates, the bigger the number the better. Higher numbers mean more days before doubling!</div>
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To date Eureka County has tested 11 folks with zero positives.</div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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Click on the "United States of America" tab to find individual states. The "deaths-per-day" chart projections give the best time duration estimate because death is a lagging indicator (please bear with me, I know this is a grim subject):</div>
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<b>U.S.A. - peak deaths-per-day April 15th; deaths-per-day go to zero July 2nd</b></div>
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<b>Nevada - peak deaths-per-day April 7th; deaths-per-day go to zero May 11th (improved from last week!)</b></div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Social distancing is our only weapon to change the curve's shape - the above numbers assume we do everything right from now forward.</div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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Copper recovered this week after a scare Tuesday with plummeting oil prices. <a href="http://mining.com/">Mining.com</a> column on the red metal:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.mining.com/copper-price-plunges-2/">Copper price plunges</a> <b>(<a href="http://mining.com/">Mining.com</a>, 4/21/2010)</b></b></div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has had a devastating impact on the oil markets. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is trading at $17.57 per barrel</b>. The front month NYMEX futures contract plumbed a historic low of<b> -$37.63 per barrel</b> on Monday, 4/20/2020.</div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). A low number is good. A bottom of <b>0.3011</b> occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal seemed certain (Friday, 1/10/2020). <b>This AM the indicator sits at 1.0503</b> below the coronavirus peak of <b>1.8399</b> set February 11th but above the 5-year average<b> (0.79)</b>. The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China, but let's keep an eye for any moves higher (click on chart for larger size)</div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night on the Monday Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<b>To ponder:</b> In numerology the year 2020 reduces to the number 4 - a dreaded number in Chinese culture. And yes, it is the Year of the Rat...a double-whammy for sure.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Remember, you can register with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/"><b>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)</b></a> for updates by e-mail. Look at the situation summary tab on their website for updated U.S. infections and deaths.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County (Update)</span></i></b></div>
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I've been searching old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. So far, I haven't found any newpaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). There are four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That's seven total for the County, still </div>
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digging [UPDATE below puts the death count at 38 confirmed which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922].</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I've been informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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<b>UPDATE April 18, 2020</b>: After posting the above, Rhonda Shandler Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled on the very same subject. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is above <b>$15 per ounce (see Weekly Summaries above).</b></div>
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Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 112.1 silver is historically very, very cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at 68.6 ounce per ounce.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is currently a dismal 0.36 (i.e. on average, the daily % rise or fall of silver price is beta times the % change in gold price). You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher </span></b><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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Stay tuned.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high of <b>2.18%</b> April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher, <b>yesterday's number is 1.05%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see Weekly Summary Charts) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.6276 below the recent high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio continues to put lots and lots of daylight above that trend - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Six Things to Watch in 2020</span></i></b></div>
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The ole Colonel's beer bet <b>(won on an intraday basis Tuesday, January 7th!)</b>. I have since revised it [parenthesis]:</div>
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<b>Gold will break </b><b>[on a closing basis]</b><b> $1,600 per ounce before the 4th of July 2020</b></div>
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We'll keep the bet alive by looking at closing instead of intraday prices - what a sport! <b>[won on a closing basis February 18th]</b></div>
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My top six things to watch for 2020:</div>
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<li><b>Copper prices </b>- I'd like to see copper prices push us above $6,500 per tonne ($2.95 per pound). A fall below the $6,000-level ($2.72) would be a bad sign - for example, U.S./China trade Phase I in trouble or escalating geo-political unrest. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has pushed copper below $6,000 per tonne</b>].</li>
<li><b>Chinese yuan</b> - strengthening below 7 USDCNY is a good sign that their economy and trade are on an improving track (<i>Weekly Summary</i>). Sustained weakening above the 7-level is a red flag. <b>[Chinese yuan is above 7 USDCNY again]</b></li>
<li><b>U.S. dollar</b> - will it remain strong or begin a period of decline? Foreign demand for Treasury debt has kept the dollar strong but rising U.S. deficits and countries trying to move away from dollar dependence (e.g., China, Russia) are countervailing forces not to be ignored. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made its high September 30 this year and has been in a downtrend of lower-lows since (99.38 September high). This reports tracks the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) (27.01 September high, see <i>Weekly Summary</i> below for latest price). Finally, overseas interest in Treasurys has been fueled by negative interest rates abroad. This report monitors the German 10-year bund (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) as a benchmark for foreign Treasury demand. <b>[Update: Covid-19 has caused liquidations as market participants rush to the U.S. dollar for safety. This has surged the U.S. Dollar Index]</b></li>
<li><b>Interest Rates</b> - there is an almost uncanny relationship between the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury and the copper-to-gold ratio (CGR, <i>Weekly Summary</i>). I've written about this extensively since 2017 ( see <i>The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries </i>below). <a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2019/12/gold-1520-silver-181-copper-225-giddy.html">Bottom line, a rising CGR signals higher interest rates for 2020.</a> [<b>Update: Covid-19 appears to have reversed the trend higher, 10-year Treasury is near record lows</b>].</li>
<li><b>Real rates </b>- The 10-year inflation adjusted Treasury yield, or real rate, is the difference between the nominal yield and inflation expectations (aka 10-year "break-even" rate). Since gold is a non-interest bearing assets it performs best when real rates are near zero or negative. This report tracks real rates (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) and inflation expectations (<i>Inflation Watch</i>). Since gold is often considered an inflation hedge it is prudent to track both. In 2020, inflation may pick up (gold bullish) but if interest rates rise faster, an increasing real rate dampens interest in in the yellow metal (gold bearish).</li>
<li><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio (AUSP)</b> - Gold's relationship with equities is key to monitor. Gold lost value to the S&P 500 from Donald Trump's election until October of 2018. Since then it has regained value in a trend of higher-lows (see <i>Chart to Watch)</i>. We entered 2020 with that trend higher challenged. Falling below trend would be a very bearish sign for gold. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has put the AUSP solidly above trend</b>].</li>
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Predictions aside, 2020 will no doubt be an exciting year in the markets. Get ready for a roller-coaster ride, pardner. I remain bullish gold!</div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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Photos by Mariana Titus if not otherwise noted</div>
colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431995859448730187.post-50042277680397615552020-04-17T11:34:00.001-07:002020-04-19T20:26:53.052-07:00Gold $1,789 & Copper $2.37 This Week; 1918 Influenza in Eureka County<div style="text-align: center;">
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<b><i>1918 Influenza in Eureka County</i></b></div>
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<b>Mineral Hill Cemetery, Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large; text-align: left;"><i>Friday, April 17, 2020 AM</i></b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<b>"I cannot overstate the potential harm the coronavirus can do to the world economy." (<a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2020/01/">Eureka Miner, January 31, 2020</a>)</b></div>
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<b>"WARNING: Too quiet on the copper front? Red metal at currency-like volatility!" </b><i><b><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i><b> March 4, 2020 [Comex copper fell into Bear Country March 13, 2020] </b></div>
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<i><b>***</b></i></div>
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<i><b>Follow the ole Colonel on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,700 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $15.42 per ounce</b></div>
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<b>My latest Kitco News commentary: <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020)<b> </b>[summary of recent commentaries given at the bottom of the blog]</div>
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<b style="text-align: start;">An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf">History of gold and which countries have the most</a></b></div>
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Morning Miners!</div>
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There's a lot to cover this morning. Some research I've done on the 1918 Influenza and its toll on Eureka County is summarized below - history repeats, pardner. There are also updates for Covid-19 statistics, copper, oil and China. Please checkout this informative website for Eureka County:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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This week we saw Comex June gold hit levels not seen since October 2012. On Tuesday gold touched $1,788.8 per ounce and is presently trading at $1,718.2. </div>
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Comex July silver is currently $15.58 per ounce [see Silver Watch].</div>
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Copper is feeling its oats too in a rally of higher-lows that started March 19. Comex July copper is presently $2.3640 per pound. Things are slowly improving</div>
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Here's how I explained my gold and silver outlook to the <b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-04-17/Wall-Street-still-bullish-on-gold-prices-but-tempers-enthusiasm.html">Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey </a></b>this morning:</div>
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<i>Domestic equities are soaring again on a plan to re-open parts of the U.S. and an Oxford professor's suggestion that a covid-19 vaccine may be available as soon as this fall. These are the strange times of coronavirus. </i></div>
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<i>Consider this: Comex gold is above the $1,700-level, rallying despite a resiliently strong U.S. dollar and scoring historic strength against key commodities. This morning, one ounce of gold buys 96 barrels of Western Texas Intermediate crude (a new all-time record), over 700 pounds of copper (a higher level than recorded during the 2007-2009 Great Recession) and over 110 ounces of silver (near March high of 124 ounces). These are the strange times of coronavirus indeed - fear and optimism riding in the same saddle as we further note that gold and the S&P 500 are showing a strong positive correlation (on a 1-month basis +0.89).</i></div>
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<i>Bullishly, The interest rate picture remains favorable for gold with 10-year real rates and the German Bund both depressed a negative 50 basis points.* </i></div>
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<i>So what does gold do next week? I think some of the boil needs to come off records and rallies finding it likely that gold will re-test $1,700 per ounce with silver retreating to $15.42 ounce per ounce. What is the future? I believe after consolidation, gold returns on an inexorable path to $1,800+ as realism cools optimistic expectations about vaccines and the health of the domestic and global economies. Eventually the extreme levels of monetary stimulus will also begin to wear on U.S. dollar strength, another bullish boost for the yellow metal.</i></div>
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<i>These are the strange times of coronavirus.</i></div>
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* 10-year U.S. real rate -.45%; 10-year bonds: German Bund -0.48%, France +0.02% and Japan +0.01%;</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">COVID-19 Update</span></i></b></div>
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There is a dandy website created for Eureka County to track and report on the covid-19 pandemic:</div>
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<a href="https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/?fbclid=IwAR203JrcVIAuYjiQHGU4TFkOaIesNYrDL1WAlNJ8MWdZsv6s5nUiPTlLkOE"><b>Eureka County, NV Coronavirus Hub</b></a></div>
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Here are the grim covid-19 statistics reported this morning:</div>
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<b>U.S.A. 690,887 covid-19 cases; 35,367 deaths</b></div>
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<b>Nevada 3,321 covid-19 cases; 142 deaths</b></div>
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Source:<b> </b><b><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center</a></b></div>
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The good news is that the curves are flattening [Weekly rates 4/10 to 4/17, calculated by the ole Colonel]:</div>
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<b>U.S. covid-19 deaths double every 7.14 days (last week 4.50 days)</b></div>
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<b>Nevada covid-19 deaths double every 9.68 days (last week 5.94 days)</b></div>
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For weekly death rates, the bigger the number the better. Higher numbers mean more days before doubling!</div>
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If you want to track the charts and projections that Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx reference, check out this site (included in the Eureka website also):</div>
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<a href="http://covid19.healthdata.org/"><b>COVID-19 Projections</b></a></div>
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Click on the "United States of America" tab to find individual states. The "deaths-per-day" chart projections give the best time duration estimate because death is a lagging indicator (please bear with me, I know this is a grim subject):</div>
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<b>U.S.A. - peak deaths-per-day April 15; deaths-per-day go to zero June 27</b></div>
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<b>Nevada - peak deaths-per-day April 18-24; deaths-per-day go to zero May 14</b></div>
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This is only a model prediction - it can change and adapt as we learn more each day.</div>
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Remember each region has its own curve and numbers can vary widely state-to-state, county-to-county. Social distancing is our only weapon to change the curve's shape - the above numbers assume we do everything right from now forward.</div>
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Stay safe and distant my friends.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Copper, Oil & China Updates</i></b></span></div>
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Here is a terrific<a href="http://mining.com/"> Mining.com</a> column on the red metal and China:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.mining.com/copper-price-rally-builds-after-china-imports-surprise/">Copper price rally builds after China imports surprise</a></b> (Mining.com, 4/14/2010)</div>
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The Saudi-Russia oil price war in combination with covid-19 has created another gold ratio for the history books. Today, April 17, an ounce of gold buys nearly 96 barrels of West Texas crude (WTI) as prices drop below $20 per barrel. This morning <b>Nymex WTI is $17.94 per barrel</b>.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wcgUQnvRdW4/XpnaTA2qEvI/AAAAAAAAirw/Irz56Xj_QAcQF5yavewIkldUMGe6Vt2BwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Au-WTI%2Bratio%2B%252804-17-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1089" data-original-width="1500" height="290" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wcgUQnvRdW4/XpnaTA2qEvI/AAAAAAAAirw/Irz56Xj_QAcQF5yavewIkldUMGe6Vt2BwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Au-WTI%2Bratio%2B%252804-17-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Another One for the History Books</b></div>
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China, which still represents copper's highest demand, is on the mend. Here is my China Indicator updated through this morning (see above <a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html"><b>2/18/2020 Kitco column</b></a>). A low number is good. A bottom occurred after the signing of the Phase I deal of 0.3011. <b>This AM the indicator sits at 1.0821</b> below the coronavirus peak of 1.8399 set February 11 but above the 5-year average (0.78). The covid-19 pandemic is stabilizing in China, but let's keep an eye for any moves higher (click on chart for larger size)</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gLSBFHigOGg/XpnbBRbg-xI/AAAAAAAAir4/VIHIQTuaMokJLU5zj3bgt4S_K9jhJSRXACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/China%2B2rDI%2B%252804-17-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1500" height="196" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gLSBFHigOGg/XpnbBRbg-xI/AAAAAAAAir4/VIHIQTuaMokJLU5zj3bgt4S_K9jhJSRXACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/China%2B2rDI%2B%252804-17-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>China 2-rho Divergence Indicator</b></div>
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I've been actively tweeting market news/events during the week so please follow me at<a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer"> </a><b style="font-style: italic;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Eurekaminer">@Eurekaminer</a>. </b><b>I usually tweet Sunday night on the Monday Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for a heads up on copper & gold prices in the <i>Year of the Rat</i>.</b></div>
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<b>To ponder:</b> In numerology the year 2020 reduces to the number 4 - a dreaded number in Chinese culture. And yes, it is the Year of the Rat...a double-whammy for sure.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qi7zOmbnsxM/Xkbgt7u_cWI/AAAAAAAAh70/UngXnLceGCUQR998n_ZoQI-vJjGEmAGJACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Chinese-new-year-rat-2020-AdobeStock_303415991.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Remember, you can register with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/"><b>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)</b></a> for updates by e-mail. Look at the situation summary tab on their website for updated U.S. infections and deaths.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">1918 Influenza in Eureka County</span></i></b></div>
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I've been searching old newspapers (<a href="http://newspapers.com/"><b>newspapers.com</b></a>) to see how Eureka County was affected by the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. With 500 million cases worldwide and an estimated death toll exceeding the military fatalities of WWI and WWII, Eureka County also suffered fatalities from this deadly virus. Influenza was first detected in the U.S.A. in January 1918 but didn't make it to Northern Nevada until October of that year. </div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="695" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--yxEADHxlh4/Xpnm7PcIpHI/AAAAAAAAis0/BtIbo0O1o88ETvdEw9IorWvV0K2nkW34wCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1918_Influenza__N__Nevada.jpg" width="138" /></a></div>
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<b>Typical newspaper column of the day reporting</b></div>
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<b>1918 Influenza in Northern Nevada</b></div>
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There were cases reported in surrounding counties of Lander, White Pine and Elko. Some nearby cities/towns cited with influenza were Reno, Carson City, Winnemucca, Silver City, Elko, Pioche and Tonopah. So far, I haven't found any newpaper columns specifically citing Eureka County but with a little digging (using <b><a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b> discovered two confirmed deaths, one in Palisade and another in the ghost town of Mineral (Mineral Hills Cemetery, headline photo). There are four possible influenza deaths in Eureka cemeteries and one in Beowawe. That's seven total for the County, still </div>
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digging [UPDATE below puts the death count at 38 confirmed which includes 1919 and a re-occurrence in 1922].</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41E7spNJ-OY/Xpn99l3QwMI/AAAAAAAAitU/K8QQksgInaAAgATXXro-VfVIXNd4Anx8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Charles%2BStafford%2BWalker%2B%25281882-1918%2529.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<b>Charles Safford Walker </b></div>
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<b>(photo: <a href="http://findagrave.com/">findagrave.com</a>)</b></div>
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Mining and Army training camps were often where trouble began. The main line east-west railroad was suspected to be a path of transmission. I've been informed by Roger Colton that his great uncle,Charles Safford Walker (1882-1918, 36 years old), died of complications after the flu. Mr. Walker was then the owner of the Palisade Ranch. The death certificate listed the cause of death as “bronchial pneumonia following influenza,” October 31, 1918. The town of Palisade is located on the mainline in the north County suggesting that trains may have indeed been an enabler for virus spread in rural communities.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="883" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X4ilEkpepk4/Xpn9RrLyEvI/AAAAAAAAitM/Ee0mOJJW_Hk93fEw5GNqWheQvBlEFcwLQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529.jpg" width="176" /></a></div>
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<b>Roy Plummer Gravesite</b> </div>
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<b>(photo: Robert Frenchu)</b></div>
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A second confirmed death is Roy Plummer (Nov. 21,1896 to Dec. 23, 1918, 22 years old) buried in the Mineral Hills Cemetery. Here is his death certificate:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="694" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ppLrQ1QzGB8/XpntU96iqBI/AAAAAAAAitA/q2ulAcrEk-EE6FcgHP0xcyxpSNK-4kvZgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Roy%2BPlummer%2B%2528Mineral%2B1896-1918%2529%2Bdeath%2Bcertificate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Roy Plummer</b></div>
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Here is a recent news column from the Carson City Nevada News:</div>
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<b><a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/04/19/2020/echoes-past-exploring-1918-influenza-epidemic-nevada">Echoes of the past: Exploring the 1918 influenza epidemic in Nevada</a></b> (Carson City Nevada News - Carson Now, April 19, 2020) </div>
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<b>UPDATE April 18, 2020</b>: After posting the above yesterday, Rhonda Gardner reached out to me and provided some excellent research she compiled on the very same subject. Rhonda worked from recorded death certificates to identify 19 influenza deaths in Eureka County in 1918, 10 in 1919 and 9 in 1922. This is a total of 38 confirmed and there are other "possibles" declared simply as pneumonia on the death certificate. The 1922 record indicates the re-occurrence of Spanish Influenza in Eureka County. The 1918 deaths include four I found (above) and eliminated some others. </div>
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Here is a link to her detailed and informative research: </div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-a23d0af0-7fff-29df-c383-de65d7e97248"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uv004-QlyLmYuuYZJXb4WO5abEr1QSHOnKCUormmwTc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3-N5C6Q0fLQa1kj14fXTditE5jlO-DALLYJA5-X3FvAY3f4FY3DiTRsa4">WW1 AND THE INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC 1918-1919</a> (Rhonda Gardner)</b></span></span></div>
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Interestingly, a lot of these cases occurred in sheep camps and ranches in Antelope Valley and Bean Flat. Here is a death certificate for Alfred Pedlar of Bean Flat from Rhonda's research (35 years old, died November 23, 1918):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="1600" height="312" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OM-3NaEJpqw/XpsookJnhDI/AAAAAAAAit0/37fEKMoVAbw8dAERb6uolBzkWt1DN1YKwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Pedlar%2Bdeath%2Bcertifictate%2B%2528Bean%2BFlat%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Death Certificate for Alfred Pedlar</b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Weekly Summary</i></span></b></div>
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Here is a weekly summary chart of gold and my 16 favorite market variables. They are grouped in categories "Commodities", "Interest Rates", "Indexes" and "Currencies" of 4 variables each. Over time, each variable has played some part in the gold story. It is prudent to monitor all 16 to understand the key price drivers that are currently active for the yellow metal. Importantly, this is not a unique collection of variables but one that works well for the ole Colonel</div>
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Because <i>The Eureka Miner</i> is a morning report, Friday AM prices are compared with the closing prices of the previous week (click on charts for larger size):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bl5B4zGSKr8/Xpnf5KYLSiI/AAAAAAAAisE/UOYUy_Sq7CM-wpzkH8DHJDVzfmQQrWrnwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Weekly%2BSummary%2BChart%2BV%2B%252804-17-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1408" data-original-width="1500" height="375" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bl5B4zGSKr8/Xpnf5KYLSiI/AAAAAAAAisE/UOYUy_Sq7CM-wpzkH8DHJDVzfmQQrWrnwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Weekly%2BSummary%2BChart%2BV%2B%252804-17-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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This weekly chart of comparative value tracks the value of gold relative to key currencies, commodities and indexes :<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-guQAnaVV7rE/XpngBa28OeI/AAAAAAAAisI/G0iDgXIiSVwdj-VlmHxYcAr6LRU9VDbDACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Weekly%2BSummary%2BChart%2BVC%2B%252804-17-2020%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1029" data-original-width="1500" height="273" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-guQAnaVV7rE/XpngBa28OeI/AAAAAAAAisI/G0iDgXIiSVwdj-VlmHxYcAr6LRU9VDbDACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Weekly%2BSummary%2BChart%2BVC%2B%252804-17-2020%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Silver Watch</i></span></b></div>
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Comex silver is above <b>$15 per ounce after recovery from recent lows (see Weekly Summaries above).</b></div>
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Please check this out if you get the silver bug:</div>
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<b><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver">How to Invest in Silver</a> (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)</b></div>
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How to smartly buy gold and silver:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-mine-physical-precious-metals-for-an-ira-51567944001">How to Mine Physical Precious Metals for an IRA</a> (Debbie Carlson, Barrons, Sept. 8, 2019)</b></div>
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The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high Wednesday, 3/18, of 123.9 ounce per ounce solidly above July 11 high of 91.3 - a trend down from this top is bullish for silver if the Lustrous One continues its rally. </div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">At 110.3 silver is historically very, very cheap relative to gold!</span></b></div>
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The 10-year average GSR is much lower at 68.6 ounce per ounce.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">The 3-month beta with gold is currently a dismal 0.38 (i.e. on average, the daily % rise or fall of silver price is beta times the % change in gold price). You prefer a high beta (i.e. greater than 1.00) when gold rallies higher </span></b><span style="color: #38761d;">(click on image for larger size).</span></div>
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<b>Gold-to-Silver Ratio</b></div>
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<b>Historical note:</b></div>
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In the past, when gold and silver were legal tender (see <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/history-of-gold-and-which-countries-have-the-most/ss-BBV4wHt?ocid=sf#image=3">gold overview link</a> below headline photo), it was important to set a value relationship between them. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.</div>
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Stay tuned.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Inflation Watch</span></i></b></div>
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Inflation expectations made a high April 23, 2018. They have tracked steadily down from there with a dive to the <b>0.5%-level</b> before reversing higher, <b>yesterday's number is 1.03%</b>. Expectations have been rising at a faster pace than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields resulting in negative real rates again (see Weekly Summary Charts) - a bullish signal for a non-interest earning asset like gold.</div>
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<b>10-year Inflation Expectations</b></div>
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Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-03/Gold-Versus-Real-Rates-1-380-by-May-Day-2019.html"><b>Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019</b></a> (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)</div>
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<i><b>Old Glory</b></i></div>
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<b>Eureka, Nevada</b></div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Chart to Monitor</span></i></b></div>
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Here's a chart to monitor for 2020 (Click on the image for a larger size):</div>
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<b>Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio</b></div>
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An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly reversed into a downward channel bottoming again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). <b>Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.6020 below the recent high of 0.7029 set March 23, 2020. Importantly, the ratio has aggressively left the downward trending channel with an uptrend trend of higher-lows starting with the October 2018 low. This week the ratio continues to put lots and lots of daylight above that trend - bullish gold!</b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Six Things to Watch in 2020</span></i></b></div>
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The ole Colonel's beer bet <b>(won on an intraday basis Tuesday, January 7th!)</b>. I have since revised it [parenthesis]:</div>
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<b>Gold will break </b><b>[on a closing basis]</b><b> $1,600 per ounce before the 4th of July 2020</b></div>
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We'll keep the bet alive by looking at closing instead of intraday prices - what a sport! <b>[won on a closing basis February 18th]</b></div>
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My top six things to watch for 2020:</div>
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<li><b>Copper prices </b>- I'd like to see copper prices push us above $6,500 per tonne ($2.95 per pound). A fall below the $6,000-level ($2.72) would be a bad sign - for example, U.S./China trade Phase I in trouble or escalating geo-political unrest. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has pushed copper below $6,000 per tonne</b>].</li>
<li><b>Chinese yuan</b> - strengthening below 7 USDCNY is a good sign that their economy and trade are on an improving track (<i>Weekly Summary</i>). Sustained weakening above the 7-level is a red flag. <b>[Chinese yuan is above 7 USDCNY again]</b></li>
<li><b>U.S. dollar</b> - will it remain strong or begin a period of decline? Foreign demand for Treasury debt has kept the dollar strong but rising U.S. deficits and countries trying to move away from dollar dependence (e.g., China, Russia) are countervailing forces not to be ignored. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made its high September 30 this year and has been in a downtrend of lower-lows since (99.38 September high). This reports tracks the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) (27.01 September high, see <i>Weekly Summary</i> below for latest price). Finally, overseas interest in Treasurys has been fueled by negative interest rates abroad. This report monitors the German 10-year bund (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) as a benchmark for foreign Treasury demand. <b>[Update: Covid-19 has caused liquidations as market participants rush to the U.S. dollar for safety. This has surged the U.S. Dollar Index]</b></li>
<li><b>Interest Rates</b> - there is an almost uncanny relationship between the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury and the copper-to-gold ratio (CGR, <i>Weekly Summary</i>). I've written about this extensively since 2017 ( see <i>The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries </i>below). <a href="https://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/2019/12/gold-1520-silver-181-copper-225-giddy.html">Bottom line, a rising CGR signals higher interest rates for 2020.</a> [<b>Update: Covid-19 appears to have reversed the trend higher, 10-year Treasury is near record lows</b>].</li>
<li><b>Real rates </b>- The 10-year inflation adjusted Treasury yield, or real rate, is the difference between the nominal yield and inflation expectations (aka 10-year "break-even" rate). Since gold is a non-interest bearing assets it performs best when real rates are near zero or negative. This report tracks real rates (<i>Weekly Summary</i>) and inflation expectations (<i>Inflation Watch</i>). Since gold is often considered an inflation hedge it is prudent to track both. In 2020, inflation may pick up (gold bullish) but if interest rates rise faster, an increasing real rate dampens interest in in the yellow metal (gold bearish).</li>
<li><b>Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio (AUSP)</b> - Gold's relationship with equities is key to monitor. Gold lost value to the S&P 500 from Donald Trump's election until October of 2018. Since then it has regained value in a trend of higher-lows (see <i>Chart to Watch)</i>. We entered 2020 with that trend higher challenged. Falling below trend would be a very bearish sign for gold. [<b>Update: Covid-19 has put the AUSP solidly above trend</b>].</li>
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Predictions aside, 2020 will no doubt be an exciting year in the markets. Get ready for a roller-coaster ride, pardner. I remain bullish gold!</div>
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<i><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Colonel's Latest Kitco News Commentaries</span></b></i></div>
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Please checkout my latest Kitco News columns on the stunning relationship of copper and gold prices with interest rates:</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-02-18/Copper-gold-the-coronavirus.html">Copper, gold & the coronavirus</a></b> (2/18/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-01-14/Leading-indicator-for-U-S-China-trade-copper-gold-yuan.html">Leading indicator for U.S./China trade - copper, gold & yuan</a> </b>(1/13/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-12-23/Is-Jeffrey-Gundlach-right-about-copper-gold-interest-rates.html">Is Jeffrey Gundlach right about copper, gold & interest rates? </a> </b>(12/23/2020, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-11/Gundlach-indicator-stable-copper-gold-means-low-yield-volatility.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: stable copper-gold means low yield volatility</b></a> (11/11/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-10-15/Gundlach-indicator-copper-gold-treasury-yields-at-a-tipping-point.html"><b>Gundlach indicator: copper, gold & treasury yields at a tipping point</b></a> (10/14/2019)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-09-03/Gundlach-indicator-treasury-yields-and-copper-gold-ratio-plummet.html">Gundlach Indicator: treasury yield and copper-gold ratio plummet</a></b> (9/03/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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<b><a href="https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-01/Robust-Revival-of-Gundlach-s-10-yr-Treasury-Relation-with-the-Copper-Gold-Ratio.html">Robust Revival of Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury Relation with the Copper-Gold Ratio</a> </b>(6/17/2019, Kitco News)</div>
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Cheers,</div>
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Colonel Possum & Mariana<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s1600/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1024" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pD2TM5UqT7w/XAqvsU-k6zI/AAAAAAAAPxA/lp2mPwaksgMDKnFEnJetAHlHe_0K2TwmwCLcBGAs/s400/1-1-Louisiana%2B-%2BEureka%2B2018%2BTrip%2Bto%2BEureka%2B604-001.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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Photos by Mariana Titus if not otherwise noted</div>
colonel possumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410679713978038462noreply@blogger.com0