"The history of Eureka lies in its future." - Lambert Molinelli, 1878

DISCLOSURE

The author/editor of the Eureka Miner owns common shares of local mining stocks, McEwen Mining (MUX) and General Moly (GMO). Please do your own research, markets can turn on you faster than a feral cat.

Friday, August 26, 2016

September Gold Surprise? Bob Dinwiddie - A Good Man Passes


Don Hull with Bob Dinwiddie
(Mariana Titus - Eureka Album of the Good Ole Days)
Eureka, Nevada

Tribute to Bob Dinwiddie at the end of this report...

Update: Friday, September 2, 2016 AM 

Comex gold $1,327.6 per troy ounce ($1,333.9 high)
Comex silver $19.345 per troy ounce
Comex copper $2.0905 per pound

Gold bounces after a worse-than-expected Nonfarm Payroll Report (NFP) for August: 151,000 jobs added (180,00 expected), unemployment unchanged at 4.9% . A sobering statistic remains that, "Employment in mining continued to trend down in August (-4,000). Since reaching a peak in September 2014, employment in mining has declined by 223,000, with losses concentrated in support activities for mining." In this context, mining includes all folks that extract wealth from the earth including those in the oil patch. It will be a good day for mining when this trend reverses.

Here's a positive, "In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents to $25.73. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.4 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.64 in August."

My input to this morning's Weekly Kitco Gold Survey:

This week included the end of a very docile August and the NFP drama of a new month - important for what didn't happen as for what did, at least for gold. Remarkably, the S&P 500 scored less volatility in August than key commodities and major currencies. Gold volatility was in the middle of the pack swinging perilously close to the key $1,300 per ounce-level on Wednesday and Thursday than bouncing up to a more bullish $1,340 this morning on a worse-than-expected U.S. jobs report. Importantly, not breaking $1,300 with commodities in a downtrend since mid-August validates my belief that central banks have established a solid price floor whether or not the Fed raises rates in September or December.* 

Bigger gold price surprises could come from the Bank of Japan reacting to a very strong currency when they meet later this month. Gold has recovered nicely this week in yen terms. After initially losing ground to the Japanese currency and falling within less than 9% above its 2013 low, gold has again broken a downtrend that began January 2015. This is important because the yen and gold compete for investor safe haven. Although Japan's monetary policy options are quite limited, a move to say "helicopter money" could give gold a real boost. In the meantime, gold will likely fall back to $1,320 next week. My vote is down.

$1,300 remains very substantial floor for gold; and $1,400, a high hurdle for 2016 prices.

Target price for gold is $1,320; target for silver, $19.1

* Continued thesis: Gold finds itself pulled in two directions; a stronger dollar is a headwind but monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and other central banks establishes a solid price floor around $1,300 per ounce. Negative interest rates around the world should maintain strong demand for U.S. Treasurys keeping the long end of the yield curve down even when the Fed raises short-term rates. This flattening should buffer gold somewhat from the curse of rising interest rates in a low inflation environment and keeping $1,400 still in sight for 2016.


Friday, August 26, 2016 AM 

Comex gold $1,332.7 per troy ounce
Comex silver $18.805 per troy ounce
Comex copper $2.0815 per pound

Gold awaits Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole. My input to this morning's Weekly Kitco Gold Survey:

With [Federal Reserve Chairwoman] Janet Yellen's prepared remarks on the wire, I don't think there will be much more to expect from her speech later today: "...an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months..." and affirmation that gradual increases in the federal funds rate are the most likely trajectory. Not particularly earth shaking news.

Gold finds itself pulled in two directions; a stronger dollar is a headwind but monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and other central banks establishes a solid price floor around $1,300 per ounce. Negative interest rates around the world should maintain strong demand for U.S. Treasurys keeping the long end of the yield curve down even when the Fed raises short-term rates. This flattening should buffer gold somewhat from the curse of rising interest rates [in a low inflation environment] keeping $1,400 still in sight for 2016. 

I think bigger gold price September surprises could come from the Bank of Japan reacting to a very strong currency and/or the continued slide of copper prices. Even though the yellow metal has outpaced the five major currencies this year (USD, yen, euro, pound sterling and by 10/1, the Chinese yuan), it has lost ground recently to the yen. Presently gold in yen terms is less than 10% above its 2013 low falling back to a downtrend that began January 2015. Although Japan's monetary policy options are quite limited, a move to say "helicopter money" could give gold a real boost.

The copper story reminds us of the "commodital force of gravity" which can pull gold down with other declining commodity prices - especially metals like copper. The gold-to-copper ratio this morning with copper at $2.08 is very near all-time record highs - one ounce buys an incredible 640 pounds of the red metal. I don't believe higher ratios or even this level are sustainable. Therefore, if copper drops lower, gold will probably follow...it's just physics. In any case, $1,300 will remain a very substantial floor; and $1,400, a high hurdle for 2016 prices. My vote is down. 

Target price for gold is $1,320; target for silver, $18.4

(more commentary below...)

Summer Edition 2016 - Mining Quarterly

The Summer Edition 2016 of Mining Quarterly is a good'un. Fall Edition coming soon!




Marianne Kobak McKown has done another outstanding job of getting the Mining Quarterly in step with this year's Mining Expo! There are excellent columns on Silver Strand's Marigold Mine, Newmont's conservation efforts at IL ranch, Jerritt canyon safety improvements, Barrick' Goldstrike and much, much more.

My column on silver's good year was also carried in the Elko Daily Free Press:


(Click on this link for the online Mining Quarterly)

Happy reading!

Numbers used for analysis (August 26 early AM prices):

Goldman Sachs Commodity Index

S&P GSCI 361.58, 09/16 contract (intraday low 279.25 1/20/2015)

Nymex/Comex (most active contracts)

Nymex oil (WTI) $47.48 per barrel 
Brent crude $ 49.75 per barrel 
Comex copper $2.0815 per pound
Comex gold $1,332.7 per troy ounce 
Comex silver $18.805 per troy ounce



Remembering Atlas Gold Bar Mine
Eureka, Nevada

September Gold Surprise?

The Colonel remains bullish on gold

Morning Miners!

As I mention in my Kitco News brief (above), one or two surprises may await gold in September whether or not the Federal Reserve decides to raise rates.

The first is the potential for a desperate action by the Bank of Japan to combat a stubbornly strong yen. The Japanese currency is presently at 100 USD/JPY and has been there for nearly a month. The venerable market seer Mark Mobius predicts that if it strengthens to 90, the BoJ will make an unprecedented move:

Mobius Says Helicopter Money Will Be Japan’s Next Big Experiment (8/24/2016, Bloomberg News)

Helicopter money is coming, says Mark Mobius, even as soon as next month. The 80-year-old investment veteran is outlining how he expects central banks to respond to sluggish economic growth. For Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, traditional easing measures have just made people save instead of spend or borrow. Combined with a stronger yen, he says that’s going to force the Bank of Japan governor to contemplate a policy he’s repeatedly ruled out. “They’re really beginning to think what ammunition they have,” he said in an interview on a visit to a typhoon-struck Tokyo this week. “The first reaction is to say, OK, let’s go for helicopter money, let’s get money directly into the hands of consumers,” he said. “I think that would probably be the next step.”

I talk about "helicopter money" in the upcoming issue of the Mining Quarterly. This is the most outlandish money printing scheme yet envisioned, literally money falling from Central Bank heavens. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s recent remark that there was no need for “helicopter money” have led some to believe it’s just around the corner for Japan – they’ve tried everything else.

The Lustrous One loves talk of money printing especially in a currency that competes with it for safe haven

On a more bearish side is the steady decline of copper prices. This morning's $2.08 per pound is not that far from June's low-point of $2.05 or January's $1.94. Goldman Sachs predicted earlier this month that the red metal could fall to $4,000 per tonne ($1.81 per pound) in the next 12 months - ouch!

Goldman Warns ‘Supply Storm’ to Engulf Global Copper Market (8/4/2016, Bloomberg Market News)

Presently gold has a positive 1- and 3-month correlation with copper (+0.75, +0.54) so it may very well travel down the shaft with its metallic friend. However, there is solid support for gold at the $1,300 per ounce level of the mine thanks to global money printers. Between central bankers and miners, September could be an exciting high-wire act (with thankfully a safety net in place).

Stay tuned, pardner.


Bob Dinwiddie at Eureka'tiques
(courtesy Barbara Dale)
Eureka, Nevada


Bob Dinwiddie - A Good Man Passes

Sadly, my good friend and neighbor Bob Dinwiddie passed away last Saturday in Elko of heart complications. Mr. Dinwiddie had just turned 85 in July and was a real miner's miner. He worked for years at Kennecott's massive copper mine outside Ely before coming to Eureka in the 1980s. He became the Mill Superintendent of the Atlas Gold Bar Mine north of Eureka and delighted in telling stories of the good ole days when mining was a lot about wit n' grit and getting the job done with the supplies and crew available (which often included getting that crew to work on time!). This 2009 report described some of those "Wild West" times:

Johnny Horton and Atlas Mine Memories (November 2, 2009, Eureka Miner's Market Report)

The Atlas mining years spanned 1986 to 1990 although stockpiled refractory ore continued to be processed in the mill for some time after mining ceased.

Bob could make just about anything from metal including a beautiful western-style iron works entrance to his driveway proudly displaying his namesake. He was an accomplished machinist and after retiring from the mines, operated Dinwiddie's Machine Shop at the same address.

Barbara Dale, proprietor of "Eureka'tiques," posted a heartfelt tribute on her facebook page that says it all:

Rest in Peace Mr Bob Dinwiddie..Extraordinary Gentleman, Machinist, BBQ Master, Husband and Father..very dear friend and favorite "old fart"...Bob in the photo after installing the open sign hardware [above picture]..we will all miss you dearly..xo

I will never forget Bob's terrific sense of humor. During local mining's darkest time in recent years, Bob reflected on Eureka's new top-o-the-line fire station and high school gymnasium, "We're going to soon become Nevada's most modern ghost town!"

Always a positive spirit, I'm sure Bob found great comfort in this year's gold price recovery and an upturn in local mining prospects. McEwen Mining is currently in the process of re-opening the Gold Bar Mine with mine construction planned to begin next year.

Bob Dinwiddie will be remembered with great honor in this town. A service will be held Saturday, September 10 at the Eureka Opera House. His wife, Bobbie Dinwiddie,  plans to move to Texas to be with the kids and grandkids.

The best to Bobbie and family!  - Colonel

Photos by Mariana Titus if not otherwise noted

Friday, August 19, 2016

Gold $1,350 - Are There Golden Trout in Jackson Hole?


Ackerman Ranch (2006)
Lander County, Nevada

Friday, August 19, 2016 AM 

Comex gold $1,348.5 per troy ounce
Comex silver $19.365 per troy ounce
Comex copper $2.1655 per pound

Gold pulls back on U.S. dollar bounce. My input to this morning's Weekly Kitco Gold Survey:

[U.K.] Prime Minister Theresa May's Friday announcement that she wants to leave Europe as "painlessly and quickly as possible" should remind investors that markets are still in a strong U.S dollar environment. This news and a hawkish take on what may transpire at the Jackson Hole meeting of Federal Reserve chiefs next week bounced the greenback sharply from its 7-week low.

Gold finds itself pulled in two directions; a stronger dollar is a headwind but monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and other central banks establishes a solid price floor around $1,300 per ounce. Negative interest rates around the world should maintain strong demand for [positive-yielding] U.S. Treasurys keeping the long end of the yield curve down even if the Fed raises short-term rates. This flattening should buffer gold somewhat from the curse of rising interest rates [in a low inflation environment] keeping $1,400 still in sight for 2016.

Against this backdrop, the yellow metal's relation to equities remains the key gold ratio to watch [see chart below]. If further rallies in domestic equities continue, a ratio below 0.6 is a bearish flag relative to the S&P 500. This morning's retreat of stocks and gold price finds that ratio at a shallow 0.62. This ratio was a strong 1.2 when Ben Bernanke gave his Jackson Hole speech 4 years ago presaging gold's painful downdraft in 2013. The ratio hit bottom at 0.5 in December 2015 as investors much preferred equities over gold. The ratio has since reversed but now shows some weakness.

On the bullish side for the yellow metal are continued macro-uncertainties which include the U.S. presidential election in November. 

My vote is down. Target price for gold is $1,340; target for silver, $19.2 

(more commentary below...)

Summer Edition 2016 - Mining Quarterly

The Summer Edition 2016 of Mining Quarterly is a good'un. Fall Edition coming soon!




Marianne Kobak McKown has done another outstanding job of getting the Mining Quarterly in step with this year's Mining Expo! There are excellent columns on Silver Strand's Marigold Mine, Newmont's conservation efforts at IL ranch, Jerritt canyon safety improvements, Barrick' Goldstrike and much, much more.

My column on silver's good year was also carried in the Elko Daily Free Press:


(Click on this link for the online Mining Quarterly)

Happy reading!

Numbers used for analysis (August 5 early AM prices):

Goldman Sachs Commodity Index

S&P GSCI 369.5, 08/16 contract (intraday low 279.25 1/20/2015)

Nymex/Comex (most active contracts)

Nymex oil (WTI) $47.98 per barrel 
Brent crude $ 50.47 per barrel 
Comex copper $2.1655 per pound
Comex gold $1,348.5 per troy ounce 
Comex silver $19.365 per troy ounce

Latest Nevada gasoline prices


Main Street (2006)
Eureka, Nevada

Gold $1,350 - Are There Golden Trout in Jackson Hole?

The Colonel remains bullish on gold

Morning Miners!

As I mentioned in my Kitco News brief (above), gold is being pulled in two directions. The return of a strong U.S. dollar (it never really left) and threat of higher interest rates in the U.S. puts a downer on gold prices going forward...

BUT...(and this is a big butt, pardner)...

Central bankers of major economies continue to apply increasingly desperate monetary policies to spur growth and re-ignite inflation. One outcome has been negative-yielding bonds which now comprise nearly 30% of global debt - a real windfall for gold. I explain this golden paradox in the upcoming fall edition of the Mining Quarterly - in my view, net bullish for gold.

Sneak preview: the annual get-together of central bankers is next week at Jackson Hole, Wyoming and there may indeed be some golden trout left in those high mountain lakes.

Gold has outpaced all five major currencies (U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, euro, British pound sterling and Chinese yuan) in 2016. It is also up with good margin from its lowest price in all five during the commodity bust that started with the China slowdown in 2011. If nothing else, the yellow metal has proved to be a very effective currency hedge. With all the currency volatility before us, this condition should not change for quite sometime.

Secondly, gold's multi-year decline relative to stocks reversed this year. Although U.S. equities are making all-time highs, gold has still not lost its edge as shown in this chart of the gold-to-S&P500 ratio (AUSP):

(Click on plot for larger size)

The plot illustrates the importance of gold staying above the 0.6 level as mentioned in the above gold survey. Falling below this level would break the 2016 upward trend (dashed green line). Stay tuned.

Another Chart to Watch

Gold price margins from 2013 lows (euro, yen)

A disturbing aspect of gold's 2015 decline in USD was the concurrent collapse in euro and yen terms.

Fortunately. the yellow metal has stayed above its 2013 lows in terms of both currencies. The percent margin above those bottoms peaked in late January 2015 and then trended down with the divergence of US monetary policy from the policies of Europe and Japan, and the associated rise of the US dollar. (click on chart for larger image, an earlier version of this chart appears in Spring 2016 Mining Quarterly ):

(Click on plot for larger size)

Declining value of gold relative to a devalued currency is a red flag. January witnessed a key reversal in this downtrend for both euro and yen and it has mostly been up and away ever since - a very bullish turn for gold in 2016.

Although gold price in euros has surpassed its 2015 high, price in yen terms has returned to a downward trend. No alarm bells yet but the divergence of these two plots with a strengthening yen is troubling.

2013 lows:

879.64 euros per ounce on 12/20/2013
122,443 yen per ounce on 6/28/2013

Friday AM (09/19/2016):

1,191.0 euros per ounce (+35.4% margin)
134,980.80 yen per ounce (+10.24% margin)

Have a fun weekend!



Cheers  - Colonel

Photos by Mariana Titus if not otherwise noted

Friday, August 5, 2016

Gold Retreats to $1,345 on BTE Jobs; McEwen Mining (MUX) Reports - Gold Bar on Track


Eureka, Nevada

Friday, August 5, 2016 AM 

Comex gold $1,345.3 per troy ounce
Comex silver $19.820 per troy ounce
Comex copper $2.1630 per pound

Gold pulls back on a much better-than-expected jobs report. My input to this morning's Weekly Kitco Gold Survey:

Divergence of central-banker policies from the future direction of the U.S. Federal Reserve is highlighted by this morning's much-better-than expected NFP [U.S. Labor Department Nonfarm Payroll] report. The latter increases the chances for a U.S. interest rate hike later this year, perhaps even September. The Bank of Japan moved in the opposite direction last Friday with more (albiet less-than-hoped-for) monetary accommodation followed this week by the Bank of England's "Brexit Bazooka" - a cut in interest rates and resumption of quantitative easing. 

These developments will prolong an era of strong U.S. dollar and likely cap gold prices this year below $1,400 per ounce. On the other hand, negative interest rates in Japan, Europe and elsewhere put in a substantial floor for gold around $1,300 per ounce.

Against this backdrop, the yellow metal's relation to equities remains the key gold ratio to watch. If further rallies in domestic equities continue a ratio below 0.6 is a bearish flag relative to the S&P 500. This morning's stock rally and gold retreat find the ratio at 0.62. 

On the bullish side are continued macro-uncertainties which now include the U.S. presidential election process. Unexpected catalysts like an expanding zika virus in the U.S. have a much lower likelihood but nonetheless remain in the darker corners of concern. 

 My vote is down. Target price for gold is $1,340; target for silver, $19.7 

(more commentary below...)

Summer Edition 2016 - Mining Quarterly





Marianne Kobak McKown has done another outstanding job of getting the Mining Quarterly in step with this year's Mining Expo! There are excellent columns on Silver Strand's Marigold Mine, Newmont's conservation efforts at IL ranch, Jerritt canyon safety improvements, Barrick' Goldstrike and much, much more.

My column on silver's good year was also carried in the Elko Daily Free Press:


(Click on this link for the online Mining Quarterly)

Happy reading!

Numbers used for analysis (August 5 early AM prices):

Goldman Sachs Commodity Index

S&P GSCI 339.00, 08/16 contract (intraday low 279.25 1/20/2015)

Nymex/Comex (most active contracts)

Nymex oil (WTI) $41.54 per barrel 
Brent crude $ 44.00 per barrel 
Comex copper $2.1630 per pound
Comex gold $1,345.3 per troy ounce 
Comex silver $19.820 per troy ounce

Latest Nevada gasoline prices


South Ranch
Eureka, Nevada

Gold Retreats to $1,345 on BTE Jobs Report

Morning Miners!

As I mentioned in my Kitco News brief (above) it appears a much-better-than expected jobs report put a dent in gold prices this morning. Let's dig a little deeper.

The Employment Situation Summary is released the first Friday of every month at 5:30 AM Eureka time. The report is jam-packed with statistics on the nonfarm payrolls of the previous month. The analyst's expectation was for 180,000 jobs added in July - the report number was a surprising 255,000 with headline unemployment remaining at 4.9%. There were also upward revisions to previous months.

Steve Liesman, the CNBC Business News economist and Fed watcher exclaimed, "It's something, huh?" Another commentator added, "It's good across the board!"

Well almost, employment in mining continued to trend down over the month dropping 6,000 additional jobs. Since reaching a peak in September 2014, employment for folks digging wealth from the earth (including our oil patch cousins) has fallen by 220,000, or 26 percent.

Most other sectors of the economy are much rosier with decent gains in professional and business services, health care, financial activities, leisure and hospitality.

Most encouraging was a 0.3% rise in average hourly employment raising that measure to 2.6% for the year. Stagnant wage growth has been a real downer for this recovery so an uptick is welcome.

Even though the participation rate is little changed at 62.8%, a rising 3-month average of 190,000 new jobs per month pretty much dampens recession fears. It also increase the chances that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, perhaps even this fall - a headwind for gold price.

The stock market reacted with glee with the S&P 500 setting new intraday highs as gold retreated more than $20 per ounce to $1,345.3.

For the reasons stated in my survey input (above), gold miners may actually be in a sweet spot for prices for the remainder of the year. If the yellow metal trades between $1,300 and $1,400, most miners can show a decent profit.

McEwen Mining (MUX) Reports - Gold bar on track



McEwen Mining reported yesterday including progress on their Gold Bar Advanced-Stage Project. For us old timers, this is the reactivation of the Atlas Gold Bar mine which kept Eureka jumping in the late-1980s & early-1990s:

McEwen Mining Q2 2016 Operating & Financial Results (Press release, 8/4/2016)

"As outlined in our Feasibility Study dated September 19, 2015, the Gold Bar asset, the upside case for Gold Bar at $1,300/oz gold provides improved economics over the original base case...The Company estimates that we will receive a permitting decision from the Bureau of Land Management during the first quarter of 2017. This final permit, once received, will allow us to begin construction of the mine, which we have estimated to take 12 months. Production is estimated to begin the following year in 2018. For 2016, we have budgeted approximately $4.7 million to be spent towards advancing the project closer to the production stage, of which $1.3 million has been spent during the six month period ended June 30, 2016. Mine permitting and engineering activities continue to advance at Gold Bar."

This could be very welcome news for Eureka in 2017 and beyond. The best of luck to the McEwen team!

Chart to Watch

Gold price margins from 2013 lows (euro, yen)

A disturbing aspect of gold's 2015 decline in USD was the concurrent collapse in euro and yen terms.

Fortunately. the yellow metal has stayed above its 2013 lows in terms of both currencies. The percent margin above those bottoms peaked in late January 2015 and then trended down with the divergence of US monetary policy from the policies of Europe and Japan, and the associated rise of the US dollar. (click on chart for larger image, an earlier version of this chart appears in Spring 2016 Mining Quarterly ):

(Click on plot for larger size)

Declining value of gold relative to a devalued currency is a red flag. January witnessed a key reversal in this downtrend for both euro and yen and it has mostly been up and away ever since - a very bullish turn for gold in 2016.

Although gold price in euros has surpassed its 2015 high, price in yen terms has returned to a downward trend. No alarm bells yet but the divergence of these two plots with a strengthening yen is troubling. Stay tuned.

2013 lows:

879.64 euros per ounce on 12/20/2013
122,443 yen per ounce on 6/28/2013

Friday AM (03/04/2016):

1,216.15 euros per ounce (+38.3% margin)
137,115.67 yen per ounce (+12.0% margin)

Have a fun weekend!



Cheers  - Colonel

Photos by Mariana Titus if not otherwise noted