Gold & Copper Giddy-up Go - Year of the Red Fire Monkey

Newark Valley, Nevada
Eureka Miner, February 2011

Update Friday February 12, 2016

Comex gold touched a new high yesterday ($1,263.9 per ounce). Although the yellow metal has pulled back to presently trade $1,235.2, the ole Colonel believes it has more room to run next week. My input to this morning's Weekly Kitco Gold Survey:

A very important indicator for gold price next week will be copper. I believe when Chinese trader's return from holiday, copper will take another trip below $2.0 per pound ($4400/tonne) blunting its recent rally. As copper tumbles, gold will rally on renewed fears about decline in global growth. The gold-to-copper ratio Thursday hit levels not seen since the 2008-2009 financial crisis (620 pounds per ounce) and will likely rise further (>700) as copper seeks equilibrium with sub-$30 per barrel oil. The oil-to-copper ratio plumbed an historic low yesterday (13 pounds per barrel) and should find relief next week with falling copper prices (chart below).

On the currency front gold continues to bullishly rise in value relative to both the euro and yen. It will be interesting to monitor the Chinese yuan post-holiday given a widening spread between offshore (CNH) and official rates (CNY). Gold price has been rising in terms of yuan which has not yet dampened consumer enthusiasm for the yellow metal as a currency hedge. All-in-all the Lone Wolf is feeling rather bullish lately. 

My vote is up. Next week’s target $1,260 per ounce

My thoughts on currencies and gold (near end of column):

Love For Gold Spreads Worldwide (Sarah Benali, Kitco News, 2/11/2016)

A historic low will find relief next week on falling copper prices

(click for larger view)

Update Thursday February 11, 2016

Terrific morning for gold & gold miners on another global market selloff! Investors are racing to gold, Japanese yen and US Treasuries for safe haven as oil dips below $27/bbl and stocks plunge. Gold is pulling ahead in the currency war (see chart):

Comex Au $1,263.4/oz 11:30am ET; presently $1,251.8/oz 

Comex Ag $15.975/oz 11:30am ET; presently$15.965/oz 

Comex Cu presently, $2.01250/lb (hanging in there, still>$2)

Nymex WTI crude $26.22/bbl new low, falls below $27/bbl; presently $27.14 

10:42am ET

Newmont (NEM) $25.27 up 3.996% 

Barrick (ABX) $12.48 up 7.73% 

This is good news for gold miners! What a morning... 

Gold is pulling ahead in the currency war (click for larger view)

Mining Quarterly

The Spring 2016 Spring Edition of the Mining Quarterly will be out March 2.

I have just submitted an update on the gold and copper price ranges discussed in the last issue below - gold is starting to show some glitter, pardner!!

The online version:

Winter 2015 Mining Quarterly

"Click to read" and the online version looks much like the printed magazine. My column on copper and gold prices for 2016 starts on page 85 (page 82 printed version). Press "Esc" to return to the Elko Daily Free Press. There is a handy scroll bar for page selection at the bottom of the screen. The same article appeared in the Elko Daily Free Press December 3:

What do copper & gold signal for 2016? 

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Numbers used for analysis (AM prices):

Goldman Sachs Commodity Index

S&P GSCI 290.55, 02/16 contract (intraday low 269.00, on 01/20/2016)

Nymex/Comex (most active contracts)

Nymex oil (WTI) $31.11 per barrel 

Brent crude $ 33.98 per barrel 

Comex copper $2.0980 per pound

Comex gold $1,149.7 per ounce 

Comex silver $14.745 per ounce

Canary in the gold mine: Fate of high yield corporate bonds

iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) $77.85 ($75.82 52-week low)

Trouble ahead: HYG < $82...oh-oh

Latest Nevada gasoline prices

Big Smoky Valley

Eureka Miner, February 2011

Gold  & Copper Giddy-up Go

Macro drivers: Continued concerns about China, commodity-exporting economies; U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory 

Wild cards: "Lower for longer" commodity prices, Fate of high yield bonds

Gold bet for next week: $1,135 trend support

Morning Miners!

For old times sake, The Eureka Miner will feature photos and excerpts from 2011 in this report and ones to follow. That was the year when China began to slow but oil and copper prices started on a tear. Gold would set an all time record later that year along with some market mayhem. Here's a blurb from February 15, 2011: 

Let's update the record books for the big three metals with copper's new high and add Brent crude as a reminder of what may come our way soon:

COMEX Gold $1432.5/oz 08:25:00 ET 12/7/2010, February contract most active
COMEX Silver $31.275/oz 08:15:00 ET 01/03/2011, March contract most active
COMEX Copper $4.6495/lb 18:15:00 ET 02/14/2011, March contract most active
ICE Brent crude $104.30/bbl 16:30:00 ET 02/14/2011, April contract most active

Those were the days my friend!

Year of the Red Fire Monkey

Gold and copper are feeling some giddy-up go this new year of the Chinese Red Fire Monkey against a backdrop of otherwise declining commodity and equity markets. I just submitted a column on both for the upcoming Spring 2016 Edition of the Mining Quarterly which will be out March 2. 

This morning Comex gold posted a 3-1/2 high of $1,164.0, now trading at $1,149.7 per ounce [UPDATE: Friday close $1,157.7, new intraday high $1,175]. Comex copper has recovered nicely from its scary $1.936 low January 19 posting its recent 2016 high yesterday at $2.138 per ounce, now trading at $2.0980 per pound. I believe gold has more to go but the red metal may need another trip to the basement after the Chinese New Year before heading higher again. 

This is how the ole Colonel summarized the near term fortunes of both metals for the Kitco Weekly Gold Survey:

Will a confluence of celebrations - Super Bowl, Mardi Gras & Chinese Lunar New Year - bring more glitter to gold? Probably not.

Chinese New Year will draw liquidity form the metals market potentially increasing volatility next week. When traders there return from holiday it is likely copper will retreat from recent highs and gold may resume its rally on renewed fears of declining global growth.

In the meantime, I believe the yellow metal will step back to trend support after making 3-1/2 month highs. Key features this week were the abrupt decline of the U.S dollar relative to the euro and yen together with a rapid re-correlation of copper with gold. Although these events supported price increases for both, this may not last.

There is still divergence of monetary policy between the U.S. vis-à-vis Europe and Japan, even though the U.S. Fed may slow the pace of interest rate increase. This supports a stronger dollar. Although to a lesser degree than oil, copper production is not slowing fast enough to support much higher prices and could again retest sub-$2 per pound lows.

My vote is down. Target for next week $1,135 per ounce.

Hey, I'm not a party pooper - it's just a tough market environment, pardner!

Jobs, Jobs...

For example, this morning was a mixed monthly jobs report. It disappointed on jobs added, 151,000 versus 185,000 expected, but unemployment fell to 4.9% with a slightly higher participation rate. This restarts the debate about what the Fed will do in March with consensus still favoring a delay in rate hikes on fears that the U.S. economy is slowing. A delay will favor gold price.

Here's the whole enchilada for January:

Employment Situation Summary

Unemployment 4.9% (5.0% December)
Participation rate 62.7% (62.6% December)

Employment in mining continued to decline in January (-7,000). Since reaching a peak in September 2014, employment in the industry has fallen by 146,000, or 17 percent.

Let's put that behind us for now and look forward to a great Super Bowl weekend!

Chart to Watch

Gold price margins from 2013 lows (euro, yen)

A disturbing aspect of gold's 2015 decline in USD was the concurrent collapse in euro and yen terms.

The yellow metal has stayed above its 2013 lows in terms of both currencies. The percent margin above those bottoms peaked in late January and has then trended down with the divergence of US monetary policy from Europe and Japan, and the associated rise of the US dollar. (click on chart for larger image).

Since late-October, the margin's rapid decline relative to yen was particularly troubling. I maintain that declining value of gold relative to a devalued currency is a red flag. Fortunately, January witnessed a key reversal in this downtrend for both euro and yen - very bullish for gold!

2013 lows:

879.64 euros per ounce on 12/20/2013
122,443 yen per ounce on 6/28/2013

Friday AM (02/05/2016):

1033.44 euros per ounce (+18.8% margin)
134,655 yen per ounce (+9.8% margin)

Market Stats

Here's the scorecard on the stock market, S&P 500 is at 1,901.35 (Friday AM):

Market corrections are generally defined as a 10% or greater move to the downside from the top of a key index. I like to use the S&P 500 (.SPX) because it includes a broader swath of America' best companies than the Dow Jones Industrial (.DJIA) - five hundred compared to thirty. Here is the score sheet of ups and downs on an intraday basis since May:

August downdraft:

S&P 500 high: 2,134.72, 5/20/2015

S&P 500 10% correction 1,921.25

S&P 500 low: 1,867.01, on Monday 8/24/2015 down 12.5%

Then from the late December high, the January downdraft:

S&P 500 high: 2,081.56, 12/29/2015
S&P 500 low: 1,812.29, on 1/20/2015 down 12.0% & 15.1% from 5/20/2015 high

S&P 500 bear market begins below 20% at 1,707.78

For Fibonacci folks the December-January "fib box" is:

50.0% retracement from 1/20 low = 1,946.9

61.8% retracement from 1/20 low = 1,978.7

Getting inside the "fib box" is generally considered a "bullish" move to the upside; failing the "fib box" is a bearish indication.

We're still below the Dec-Jan fib box - a very bearish indication.

Cheers - Colonel

Photos by Mariana Titus