Copper Seen Near Bottom by Antofagasta as China Takes Supply (Bloomberg News, 10/15/2015)
Copper Mine Spending Seen Sinking Below Financial-Crisis Levels (Bloomberg News, 10/13/2015)
Blasts from the Past
CAT 5 Monster Storm
El Niño Diary (continued from 10/21/15)
As a follow-up to my continuing El Niño watch, Tropical Storm Patricia has unexpectedly transformed from tropical storm to a 200 mph CAT 5 monster (designated "M" by NOAA for major huricane):
PATRICIA... ...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD... ...HEADING FOR POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY... (NOAA caps not mine, 200 mph winds, a shockingly low 880mb for hurricane propeller heads).... This is not a good day for residents of Manzanillo & Puerto Vallarta...our thoughts and prayers are with them.
To put this storm in perspective, it is telling that on August 29 there were 3 simultaneous CAT 4 hurricanes in the Pacific. I believe we have 14 hurricanes on the scoreboard for 2015 in the Eastern Pacific - Hurricane Patricia will become number 15. Last year, there were 22 named storms including another CAT 5 off Mexico (Mighty Marie). Funny, I've tracked hurricanes in the Gulf & Caribbean for years - now all the action is in the Pacific...somethin' different going on.
Following commodities, I run into a variety of opinions on this El Niño. Here's a view from a one grain trader:
"El Niño, Global Warming, Climate Change.....grain traders have heard it all before, and are so far ahead of these envirowhackjob cassandras it isn't even funny any more..."
Stay tuned, pardner. The boy scout in me says, "be prepared."
There have been numerous attempts but the S&P 500 has finally blown the top of the fib box trading at 2.071.34. This is a very bullish development - let's see where the S&P closes today.
Kitco News Gold Survey
My vote is up. Target $1,150 per ounce.
October is becoming Central Bank surprise season. Last Halloween, Japan put a supercharger on their already accomodative policy cratering gold prices. This week Mario Draghi's comments that the ECB was ready to cut interest rates and expand QE coupled with China's PBOC monetary moves today have propelled equity markets and the U.S. dollar. Gold is down and will probably find support at $1,150 per ounce next week, just above early-September high ($1,147.3).
Although trading presently at $1,161.4 per ounce, $30 below this month's month high at $1,191.7, gold has still made substantial gains against both euro and yen when compared to August averages (1). Silver has shined just slightly more; the yellow metal continues to outperform the red and is essentially on par with oil. The most impressive feat for gold is a rise in its euro value at $1,052.8 euros per ounce - a level not seen since mid-July. Overall a near term pause in gold's fortunes, more downside ahead in U.S. dollar value.
This week's scorecard (click on chart for larger image):
(1) an August comparison is relevant given the market collapse 8/24 & 8/25
Cheers - Colonel