Another volatile market week but not much has changed from last Friday's report and analysis (below, 8/28/2015). The world awaits the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting Thursday, 9/17/2015.
This morning's input to the Kitco Weekly Gold Survey (Comex gold, $1,127.9 down $5.7, December contract):
My vote is down. Target price $1,100 per ounce.
Discussion: "just another currency?"
Gold price remains loosely tied to the euro. Yesterday when Mario Draghi made dovish comments about European monetary policy, gold and the euro notched down 1%. The reaction to the release of the monthly US jobs report was more mixed. The 5.1% unemployment rate suggests to many that the Fed will raise interest rates in September; for others, the lower-than-expected jobs gain hints further delay. After initially bouncing, gold is now lower in morning trading along with the euro.
- Higher US interest rates and stronger US dollar are bedfellows - both gold and the euro retreat from that union.
- On a 1-month basis: Gold in USD is 1.7-times more volatile than gold in euros The rolling correlation of gold and euro remains strong (> +0.8)
- Gold continues to hover about the €1000-level*
Have a relaxing weekend, mine will be loosely tied to the BBQ! Cheers...
* mean since 8/3 = €1005, standard deviation €9.72
Memorable quotes (lately):
"Gold has no sponsor" - Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Commodity Guru on CNBC Business News, 8/26/2015, Currie reiterates $1,050 per ounce gold target
In the jargon of economists...
“There will have to be a re-pricing and that might be destructive,” IMF economists warning (Janet Mirasola Pre-market brief, 8/26/2015)
Freeport on China...
On the misgivings of lower oil...
“The problem is when people think of consumers saving a few pennies at the pump, they’re not going to take that money and buy a new house or a new car or send their child to college. They’re probably going to buy extra socks and potatoes...” (Walter Zimmermann Jr, vice president and chief technical analyst at United-ICAP, see Guardian article below)
Debbie Carlson of the Guardian explains the recent plunge in oil prices: US crude oil prices hit lowest since 2009, eliminating thousands of jobs (8/21/2015, The Guardian)
Please checkout Mariana's Eureka, Nevada on Facebook
Numbers used for this morning's early analysis:
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
S&P GSCI 348.71, 9/15 contract (intaday low 333.80 on 8/24/2015)
Nymex oil (WTI) $42.57 per barrel (intraday low $37.75 on 8/24/2015)
Brent crude $47.55 per barrel
Comex copper $2.3325 per pound (intraday low $2.209 on 8/24/2015)
Comex gold $1,133.7 per ounce (Intaday high $1,169.8 on 8/24/2015)
Comex silver $14.545 per ounce
Latest Nevada gasoline prices
Gold is the Euro
If you want to guess gold price just multiply the euro/dollar currency rate by 1,000...
Market drivers: concerns over China & the timing of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate rise
A historic week in the markets*. When the DOW drops nearly 1,100 points on a Monday morning, you know you're in for a looper-dooper. In response Comex gold popped to $1,169.8 per ounce and the S&P 500 Volatility Index (often called the "fear gauge") surged to levels not seen since the post-US debt downgrade in 2011. Blood in the streets...gold gets a safe haven bid...Freeport falls below 2008 price levels...the good ole bad days are here again!!
Whoa not so quick, pardner. The 2008-2009 financial crisis and the US debt crisis were self-inflicted wounds, this week was all about collateral damage from other shores. As this report pointed out last week, the Chinese devaluation of the yuan set off a chain reaction of currency panic in emerging markets that cascaded into havoc for our domestic markets this week. News flash - China is slowing!
The S&P 500 and the DOW have not regained all the wealth lost earlier this week and fear levels are still elevated...BUT...the sky is not falling. Both markets have needed a correction for months, they got one*. Next Friday we'll take a peak at the monthly jobs report and see if the US economy is on tract - for now, take a deep breath. China has been slowing for a long, long time, commodities are in the tank and mining is in the deep doldrums - these are not new news items (a ray of light in a moment).
Gold quickly faded from its Monday peak to plumb $1,117 on Tuesday and has a little mojo today trading presently at $1,133.7 per ounce. The Eureka Miner price target was $1,130, missed by a couple of bucks - ho-hum. No one is running from a burning theater, but nobody is buying tickets for the Gold Show either. Goldman Sach's commodity guru Jeff Currie said it best Wednesday on CNBC News, "Gold has no sponsor."
Besides blood in the streets, gold responds well to inflation expectations. Japan and Germany just turned in zeroes for their core inflation numbers. Lower commodity prices present deflating pressures in the US while the Federal Reserve has been trying like crazy to meet a 2% target. In the meantime, US interest rates are expected to rise (sometime) which can be kryptonite for gold against a backdrop of low inflation. A better than expected US GDP which came in at 3.7% put the possibility of a September rate hike back on the table.
But don't despair, there are some positives here. First, gold price in euro terms is pretty stable; stability trumps decline (no candidate pun intended). There's logic here - higher US interest rates and stronger US dollar are bedfellows - both the euro and gold retreat from that union. As I discuss in my gold note to the Weekly Kitco Gold Survey, Gold price in US dollars is over 2-times more volatile than gold in euros.
If you want to guess gold price just multiply the euro/dollar currency rate by 1,000 - it's worked pretty well for the entire month of August. For example this morning's rate was 1.1235 dollars per euro, multiply that by 1,000 and you have $1,123 per ounce versus $1,133. I'll take the difference and buy the house a round (see plot near the end of the report). Gold is the euro.
If this relation changes and gold falls in value relative to the euro and yen then you have cause for concern. So far so good. The positives:
- Gold is still up in euros & yen from its 2013 lows (+14.7% & +12.0% respectively)
- An ounce of gold buys considerably more barrels of oil & pounds copper than last November and many more compared to 2013
- It may finally be bottoming in value relative to US equities
Ichan is an activist investor known for taking CEOs and board members to the woodshed when he senses company value is being mismanaged. Mining benchmark Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) fell below its 2008 lows earlier this week to plumb $7.76 per share on Wednesday. It has moved since to trade at $10.50 this morning. Two things happened to explain a 35% leap from its deepest shaft: FCX made a commitment to stop wasting cash and news got out that Carl was planning to visit. Carl Icahn disclosed a near 8.5% stake in the company (about $1.2 billion) and unveiled plans for aggressive activism, to further cost savings and higher profits.
Investors hoping Icahn can bring sale of energy assets (Seeking Alpha, 8/28/2015)
Carl Icahn’s Latest Bold Bet on Commodities and Energy (By MAUREEN FARRELL, Wall Street Journal, 8/28/2015)
Here's the ray of light for Friday. When "smart money" starts piling into beaten down sectors the bottom is probably near. A similar phenomena is occurring in the oil sector. Caution - their time horizons can be a lot longer than yours.
Market corrections are generally defined as a 10% or greater move to the downside from the top of a key index. I like to use the S&P 500 (.SPX) because it includes a broader swath of America' best companies than the Dow Jones Industrial (.DJIA) - five hundred compared to thirty. Here is the score sheet of ups and downs on an intraday basis:
S&P 500 high: 2,134.72, 5/20/2015
S&P 500 low: 1,867.01, on Monday 8/24/2015 down 12.5%
S&P 500 bear market begins below 20% at 1,707.78
Key "next level" to watch going down is 1,820.66 (low on 10/15/2014, down 14.7%)
For Fibonacci folks the "fib box" is:
50.0% retracement from 8/24 low = 2,000.87
61.8% retracement from 8/24 low = 2,032.45
In the coming weeks, getting inside the "fib box" is generally considered a "bullish" move to the upside; failing the "fib box" is a bearish indication.
Kitco News Gold Survey
My input to the Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey:
My vote is down. Target price $1,110 per ounce.
Discussion: What a week! The S&P 500 Volatility Index peaked 50 on Monday, frightening levels not seen since post-US debt downgrade in 2011. Heightened volatility remains the theme through this morning's trading, still above 25. This is in stark contrast with gold price volatility, especially in terms of the euro which shows less than 1% (0.97%) variation on a 1-month basis*.
Interestingly, Comex gold in US dollar terms is more than 2 times more volatile (2.1X) when compared to denomination in euros. This suggests that gold remains metastable about the €1000-level (attached chart), a condition that has been true since the price downdraft from the €1050-level July 20 with a 1-month rolling correlation of gold and euro at a very high +0.88.
Goldman Sach's commodity guru Jeff Currie said Wednesday on CNBC News that "gold has no sponsor." As such, I believe the yellow metal will continue to behave as a currency that closely tracks the euro in price movement. An interesting twist this week was suspected Chinese selling of US debt causing a bump in Treasury yields and the US dollar. The euro fell accordingly and drug its new companion gold along with it.
*day-to-day price standard deviation normalized by the mean over one month.
Cheers - Colonel
Photos by Mariana Titus