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The next Market Report will be December 21, 2012
My latest Kitco commentary: Copper & Gold – Fast Eddie’s Lucky Run
COMEX Gold price = $1,702.9/oz (February contract most active)
Eureka Miner’s Gold Value Index© (GVI) = 98.80 (gold value is elevated with respect to key commodities oil, copper and silver)
Value Adjusted Gold Price© (VAGP) = $1,440.2/oz
COMEX - VAGP = $262.7/oz; gold is trading at a premium to key commodities.
This will be a short report this morning as ole Colonel prepares for a road trip next week. The next report is bright and early Friday, Dec. 21 - winter solstice for 2012 and the last day of the Mayan long calendar. Being an optimist, I don't believe the world will end on that day.
The latest news for General Moly is receipt of $100M from POS-Minerals (subsidiary of POSCO, 10% owner of Mt. Hope). Here's yesterday's press release:
General Moly Announces Receipt of $100 Million Contribution Payment from Joint Venture Member POS-Minerals to Commence Construction at the Mt. Hope Project (Press release, 12/6/2012)
I continue to believe that copper price action will continue to shed light on gold's next move as explained in my Kitco commentary, Copper & Gold – Fast Eddie’s Lucky Run.
Enjoy another cup of Raine's delicious Red Label TGIF and have a great weekend!
The Colonel's Gold, Silver & Copper Prices for Next Week
Here is my input to the Kitco Weekly Gold Survey:
- My target price of $1,730 per ounce is a positive bias above the geometric mean of the given trading range.
- Given the target gold price, the silver price ranges are derived from the 1-month gold ratio mean (GSR) and its respective ratio stability (CRS©). A similar technique was used to predict the price range for copper since its 3-month correlation with gold is still positive (although the 1-month is negative).
- My Gold Value Index© (GVI) equals 98.80 or 4.8% below the 2012 high of 103.73. Today gold value is below its 1-month moving average of 101.03; a value of 100 represents a historically high-value of gold relative to key commodities oil, copper and silver.
- The gold-to-copper ratio today is 464.07 pounds per ounce and below its 3-month moving average of 478.87 and 6-year trend of 482.31; trending below this trend line is a bullish indication for the red metal; trending above 500 pounds per ounce, bearish (Ref 3). The 1-month gold-to-copper ratio stability is a borderline divergent at 2.99%. The 1-month rolling correlation is -0.46; 3-month is +0.75. 3-month relative volatility is 1.99X gold and price sensitivity (beta) is +1.48
- The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) is slightly above its historical norm at 51.346; the 3-month rolling correlation is +0.87, relative volatility is 1.94X gold and price sensitivity (beta) is +1.70. The GSR is below its 3-month average of 52.312; The 1-month gold-to-silver ratio stability is a low 2.01%.
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