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Friday Commentary & Kitco Gold Survey
The Colonel's Weekly Gold, Silver & Copper Price Predictions
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My latest Kitco commentary: Copper and Gold - In the Eye of the Storm (10/30/2012)
COMEX Gold price = $1,734.7/oz (December contract most active)
Eureka Miner’s Gold Value Index© (GVI) = 104.27 (record high for 2012, gold value is elevated with respect to key commodities oil, copper and silver)
Value Adjusted Gold Price© (VAGP) = $1,390.1/oz
COMEX - VAGP = $344.6/oz; gold is trading at a premium to key commodities.
This will be a short report this morning - my sweetheart Mariana has just returned from her beloved Louisiana!
It has been quite a market week and good for gold as I summarize in the input to the Weekly Kitco Gold Survey below.
The report will return to full strength next Friday. Enjoy a cup of Raine's delicious Red Label TGIF and have a great weekend!
The Colonel's Gold, Silver & Copper Prices for Next Week
Here is my input to the Kitco Weekly Gold Survey:
The yellow metal is presently showing impressive strength relative to key commodities and the broader markets.
- My target price of $1,750 per ounce for next week just below the Oct. 17 intraday high of $1,755.
- Given the target gold price, the silver price ranges are derived from the 1-month gold ratio mean (GSR) and its respective ratio stability (CRS©). A different technique was used to predict the price range for copper as it bearishly departs from gold..
- My Gold Value Index© (GVI) equals 104.27 which is a high for 2012 and just 5.1% below the Oct. 4, 2011 high of 109.97. Today gold value is above its 1-month moving average of 100.82; a value of 100 represents a historically high-value of gold relative to key commodities oil, copper and silver.
- The gold-to-copper ratio today is 505.74 pounds per ounce and above its 3-month moving average of 477.42; trending below this average towards the 400 pounds per ounce level would be a bullish indication for the red metal; trending above 500 pounds per ounce would be decidedly bearish (Ref 3). The 1-month gold-to-copper ratio stability remains low at 2.04% but is bearishly diverging (1-month rolling correlation is +0. 0.80; 3-month is +0.92. 3-month relative volatility is 1.37X gold and price sensitivity (beta) is +1.26
- The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) is above its historical norm at 53.163; the 3-month rolling correlation is +0.93, relative volatility is 2.05X gold and price sensitivity (beta) is +2.01. The GSR is close to its 3-month average of 53.075. The 1-month gold-to-silver ratio stability is a low 1.21%.
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