Friday, March 9, 2012
The Colonel's Friday Thoughts on Gold, Silver & Copper; Positive Jobs Report
*** BREAKING NEWS *** COMEX gold reversed a downward slide and posted an intraday high of $1,714.9 per ounce at 10:50 AM ET. The Colonel remains cautious on gold and silver (see below).
Latest Nevada Fuel Prices (click this link)
NEW FORMAT for 2012
Daily Market Roundup
- Gold & Silver Report
- Copper & Molybdenum Report
- Oil Watch
- Debt Crisis Watch
- Stock Market Morning Update
- Eureka Miner's Million Dollar Grubstake Portfolio
My latest Kitco commentary: Silver & Copper 2012 - A Tale of Two Metals (03/05/2012)
My Latest International Business Times commentary: Silver to Gold, “Whither Thou Goest…” (02/27/2011)
COMEX Gold price = $1,683.0/oz (April contract most active)
Eureka Miner’s Gold Value Index© (GVI) = 88.55 (gold value trending down)
Value Adjusted Gold Price© (VAGP) = $1,588.2/oz
COMEX - VAGP = $94.8/oz; gold is trading at a declining premium to key commodities; the gold-to-copper ratio is below its 3-month average (Cu bullish)
It is 5:44 AM. Have a cup of delicious Raine's Red label TGIF. Old Miner Woden probably won't speak to me next week but I've turned cautious on gold and silver prices for the near-term. Ruby T will be delighted the ole Colonel is optimistic for the red metal going forward. Today's monthly Employment Situation Report added 227,000 nonfarm jobs and upwardly revised January's number to 284,000. Headline unemployment stubbornly remains at 8.3%. All-in-all, another good jobs report.
Markets around the world are in rally mode and our Debt Crisis Index (DCI) pegs 74.7,a record low since its inception in late-July of last year (see below).
Have a great weekend and remember St.Patrick's Day is on a Saturday and is now only 8 days away. I'm Welsh-Irish-Norwegian...so THREE CHEERS!
The Colonel's Friday Thoughts on Gold, Silver & Copper
Here is my input to the Weekly Kitco Gold Survey:
Q. Where do you see gold’s price headed next week, up, down or unchanged?
A. Down, $1,650 per ounce target assuming no further deterioration of Persian Gulf tensions.
A. The effects of the dramatic Feb. 29 sell-off of gold and silver still cast a shadow on both and the yellow metal could return to mid-$1,650 per ounce territory by next week. Although real negative rates and the possibility of escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf remain bullish for gold, the list of downward pressures grows. This morning’s positive U.S. jobs report diminishes the prospects for further quantitative easing, a stabilizing Europe with hard default avoided for Greece and the U.S. dollar trending stronger against both the euro and the yen are all near-term bearish for gold although the long-term bullish trend is still intact. Falling gold and rising copper prices are a bullish sign for the red metal which has recently demonstrated resilience compared to precious metals. A key metric to watch is the gold-to-copper ratio; compression below the 400 pound per ounce level would be notably bullish for the red metal. Silver’s high correlation with gold and increasing relative volatility do not bode well for the white metal.
For $1,650/oz gold we can expect to see oil (WTI) in a range of $99-$104/bbl; silver, $32-$33/oz; and copper, $3.7-$3.9/lb.
1. My Gold Value Index© (GVI) equals 88.55 this morning down 19.5% from the Oct. 4 high of 109.97, and at levels of early August, 2011.
2. The GVI, which has been oscillating up and down about its average, is now trending lower which is bullish for key commodities.
3. The gold-to-copper ratio today is 442.5 pounds per ounce and below its 3-month moving average of 457.1 pounds per ounce. Remaining below this average is bullish for copper going forward. 3-month relative volatility is 1.5X gold; 1-month is 0.97X gold
4. The gold-to-silver ratio is near historic norms at 50.5; 3-month rolling correlation is +0.957, relative volatility is 2.01X gold and price sensitivity (beta) is 1.954
Daily Market Roundup
This morning's mining stocks...
Barrick (ABX) $45.89 down 0.35%
Newmont (NEM) $56.96 up 0.02%
McEwen Mining (MUX) 5.17 up 4.66% (formerly US Gold, UXG)
General Moly (Eureka Moly, LLC) (GMO) $3.46 up 4.85%
Thompson Creek (TC) $7.21 up 1.12%
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) $39.83 up 0.84% (a bellwether mining stock spanning copper, gold & molybdenum)
Quadra FNX (TSE:QUX) $n/a
Timberline Resources (TLR) $0.51 down 5.56%
The Steels (a "tell" for General Moly & Thompson Creek):
ArcelorMittal (MT) $19.75 down 0.20% - global steel producer
POSCO (PKX) $89.36 up 0.07% - South Korean integrated steel producer
The Eureka Miner's Index© (EMI) was re-calibrated 2/8 to reflect current 200-day moving averages for benchmark miners.
The EMI is above-par at 191.10, up from last report's 168.03 and below the 1-month moving average of 223.90. The 1-month average is falling but still above the key 100-level.
The EMI gives us the market temperature for the factors that have the greatest impact on mining in Eureka County. The record 2010-2012 high for the EMI is 816.78 set 01/04/2011; the low was set 10/4/2011 at 22.88. An EMI of 100 is the boundary between hot and cold markets for the metals & miners.
Gold & Silver Report
COMEX gold is down $15.7/oz at $1,683.0/oz (April contract, most active)
COMEX silver is down $0.536/oz at $33.295/oz (May contract, most active)
The gold-to-silver ratio (Au:Ag) is 50.548 oz/oz
Silver 1-month CRS© is 2.06% (bullish level); CRS© weakly divergent, (Ag neutral)
The Eureka Miner’s Gold Value Index© (GVI) is below-par at 88.55, down from last report's 89.03 and below its 1-month average of 90.75. Gold value is now trending down after briefly trending up mid-month. The record high for 2010-2012 is 109.97 set on Oct. 4, 2011.
The Value Adjusted Gold Price© (VAGP) is $1,588.2/oz which is only $94.8/oz below the current COMEX gold price.
The GVI gauges the value of gold in relation to oil, copper and silver independent of currency. These three commodities were chosen for relative value comparison because 1) oil derivatives are a common cost element for all miners, 2) copper has proven to be a reliable proxy for global growth and 3) silver is a precious and industrial metal that now competes with gold for investment and as a hedge against fiat currencies.
The Value Adjusted Gold Price (VAGP) is a level that supports current oil, copper & oil prices based on historical commodity norms. If the daily COMEX price is less than the VAGP, then gold is undervalued; if above, overvalued.
Copper & Molybdenum Report
COMEX copper is up 0.0120/lb at $3.8035/lb (May contract, most active)
The gold-to-copper ratio is 442.49 lb/oz; ratios in excess of 400 lb/oz are considered "recession levels"; the ratio is below its 3-month moving average of 457.10 (Cu bullish trend emerging in Price Domain B)
Copper 1-month CRS© is 2.02% (bullish level); CRS© convergence with ratio compression (Cu bullish)
The latest molybdenum oxide spot and futures prices (courtesy of Thompson Creek Metals):
Metals Week Average:
As of March 12, 2012
Ryan's Notes Average:
As of March 6, 2012
(updated twice weekly)
European Molybdenum Oxide (Bloomberg average price, updated Wednesday & Friday):
London metal Exchange (LME) molybdenum 3-month seller's contract:
US$14.52/lb (US$32,000/metric ton)
Daily Oil Watch
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On February 1st, 2011, we identified North Sea Brent crude oil as a good barometer for the crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The next conflict could be in the Persian Gulf. Brent remains above $120/bbl maintaining a spread above the North American benchmark, Western Texas Intermediate or "Texas light sweet crude", traded on the NYMEX.
Here are the key front-month contracts this morning:
NYMEX light sweet crude $106.50
ICE North Sea Brent crude $124.92
Spread (ICE- NYMEX) = $18.42 (last report, $18.79)
Here are the June contracts* with a narrower spread:
NYMEX light sweet crude $107.45
ICE North Sea Brent crude $123.99
Spread (ICE- NYMEX) = $16.54 (last report, $16.55)
* NYMEX futures contracts have rolled forward, we now show April and June for a 2-month look-ahead
NYMEX WTI 1-month CRS© is 3.64% (neutral level); CRS© weak divergence (Oil neutral)
Prices are near highs for 2012, we have $120+ Brent and $105+ NYMEX in June favoring high oil prices this spring into summer. A front-month spread between Brent and WTI >$20/bbl is a trouble sign, OK for now.
Daily Debt Crisis Watch
July 26th we introduced the Debt Crisis Index (DCI). The DCI is computed in the mornings and at the market close Friday in much the same way we do the EMI and GVI indices. Today, the DCI has a new record low at 74.7 down from last report's 82.6. A level above 200 is time for serious concern. We are now well below that level. The highest level recorded since inception was 271.0 Aug. 9, 2011; the lowest level is 74.7 on Mar. 9, 2012
Global sovereign debt issues have been an overhang on markets for many, many months starting with the Dubai crisis in late November, 2009 and spreading to the euro-zone in 2010-2011 and continuing into 2012.
Stock Market Morning Update
The DOW is up 49.54 to 12,957.48; the S&P 500 is up 8.14 points at 1,374.05
The Eureka Miner's Grubstake Portfolio is up 1.15% at $1,521,205.19 (what's this?).
Headline photograph by Mariana Titus
Write Colonel Possum at email@example.com for answers to your questions or to request e-mail updates on the market