Monday, April 11, 2011
Oil $113; Au $1478; Ag $42 - Metals & Miners Weekly Roundup
It is 5:35 AM. Grab a cup of Monday java on 4-11-11. "4-11" used to be a nice ratio for your rear end, back in the day. Now, the Colonel isn't talking about where the sun don't shine - I'm talking cars! A 4-11 "posi" with a 4-speed Muncie; big block Chevy with dual quads, "She's real fine, my 4-0-9!" - that's old timer talk for sure. Let's put some more of that java down and get your rear end to work!
Oil & Metals Outlook
It was another record breaker over the weekend and in the early morning hours of Monday but a small U.S. dollar bounce has paused the advance. NYMEX oil and COMEX gold running together like twins joined at the hips set new highs on Sunday at 18:00 ET posting $113.46/bbl and $1478.0/oz respectively. Brent oil made its new crisis high at Friday's close at $126.47/bbl. COMEX silver waited for the crowd to leave the room then made a bold run at $42/oz with its new 31-year record of $41.98/oz.
There is a growing consensus that global growth and our own domestic recovery will run into serious headwinds if we spend too much time in the $110-$120/bbl pasture (see the Daily Oil Watch below for more details).
Copper is hanging in there trading at $4.4970/lb presently but with some gathering clouds on the horizon. Here is a good Bloomberg morning summary on the red metal:
Copper May Slide as Earthquake Hits Japan, Causing Equity Markets to Slump (Maria Kolesnikova, bloomberg News - Apr 11, 2011 5:39 AM PT)
Let's update our record book for the big three metals together with NYMEX and ICE Brent crude:
COMEX Gold $1,478.0/oz 18:00 ET 04/10/2011, June contract most active (new)
COMEX Silver $41.980/oz 00:45 ET 04/11/2011, May contract most active (new)
COMEX Copper $4.6375/lb 06:15 ET 02/04/2011, March contract most active
NYMEX WTI Crude $113.46/bbl 18:00 ET, 04/10/2011, May contract most active (new)
ICE Brent crude $126.47/bbl 016:45 ET 04/08/2011, June contract most active (new)
Finally, both Western and European moly oxide gained a little last week with both back in $17/lb territory (see Molybdenum Weekly Roundup below).
The Colonel's April Commodity Models
I updated my April commodity models over the weekend and we will talk more about them this week with monthly outlook projections. Overall, some statistical sanity is returning to our favorite metals. Here is a sneak peak showing a plot of oil versus gold (larger and more readable charts are included at the bottom of this blog page):
Eureka Miner's Index (EMI)
The Eureka Miner's Index (EMI) gives us the market temperature for the factors that have the greatest impact on mining in Eureka County. Below is a chart of the EMI at Friday's close. The magenta line shows the EMI; a composite of three benchmark miners, key oil and metal prices, the 10-year Treasury rate and market volatility (.VIX). A 1-month moving average is given by the blue line (a larger, more readable chart can be found near the bottom of the blog page):
This morning the Eureka Miner's Index(EMI) is above-par at 566.29, down from from Friday's close at 519.21 and above the 1-month moving average of 416.73. The EMI continues to be down from the high set on January 4th, it set a new 2011 low on March 15th. A positive trend from the bottom has been established, note positive turnaround in the 1-month moving average (above)..
The record high for the EMI is 816.78 set 01/04/2011; the low was set 6/7/2010 at 50.7. An EMI of 100 is the boundary between good lands and bad lands for the metals & miners relevant to Eureka County.
200-day averages are used in the EMI to normalize current mining company share price and are updated monthly. Upper and lower trend lines are updated weekly.
Gold Value Index (GVI)
Our newly minted Gold Value Index (GVI) is below-par at 67.68 down from Friday's close of 67.89 and a new low for 2011. The 1-month moving average is 70.38 and the GVI high for 2011 is 78.35. Today's Value Adjusted Gold Price (VAGP) is $1,814.1/oz.
The GVI gauges the value of gold in relation to oil, copper and silver independent of currency. Although gold prices have been on the rise, the GVI has been trending down since 6/7/2010 when it had a value 0f 100. These three commodities were chosen for relative value comparison because 1) oil is a common cost element for all miners, 2) copper has been a reliable proxy for global growth and 3) silver is a precious metal that now competes with gold for investment and as a hedge against fiat currencies.
The Value Adjusted Gold Price (VAGP) is a level that supports current oil, copper & oil prices based on historical commodity norms. If the daily COMEX gold price is below the VAGP, then gold is undervalued; if above, overvalued.
Below is a chart of the GVI at Friday's close. The magenta line shows the GVI, a 1-month moving average is given by the blue line and the dotted line represents a "fair value" for a commodity-based valuation based on historical data (a larger, more readable chart can be found near the bottom of the blog page):
Daily Oil Watch
Latest Nevada Fuel Prices
On February 1st we identified North Sea Brent crude oil as a good barometer for the developing crisis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). It is now above $120/bbl with a large spread from the North American benchmark, Western Texas Intermediate or "Texas light sweet crude", traded on the NYMEX (see note 1). The Report normally follows the latter but will track both until things settle out in the region.
Here are the key front-month contracts as of this morning:
NYMEX light sweet crude $112.20
ICE North Sea Brent crude $124.93
Spread (ICE- NYMEX) = $13.73 (Last Friday $13.15)
Here are the July contracts* with a narrower spread:
NYMEX light sweet crude $113.26
ICE North Sea Brent crude $124.83
Spread (ICE- NYMEX) = $11.57 (Last Friday $11.69)
Prices are near their crisis highs, we have $120+ Brent and $110+ NYMEX in July favoring higher oil prices through the summer. My December prediction that we would see NYMEX $100/bbl oil before the Fourth of July came true on February 23rd.
Oil & Copper Correlations with Gold
Oil & copper correlations with gold give us insight into what may happen next for the metals & miners. With supply and demand fundamentals returning to the commodity space, diminishing correlations between key commodities are less alarming but trends should still be carefully monitored especially with spiking oil prices.
Here are the latest correlations given this morning's NYMEX/COMEX trading:
Oil/Au correlation +0.8887 (1-month) +0.9170 (3-month)
Cu/Au correlation +0.6883 (1-month) -0.2307 (3-month)
Cu/Oil correlation +0.6416 (1-month) -0.3706 (3-month)
Here are the numbers from the last roundup (4/01/2011):
Oil/Au correlation +0.8022 (1-month) +0.8891 (3-month)
Cu/Au correlation +0.4753 (1-month) -0.2640 (3-month)
Cu/Oil correlation +0.4150 (1-month) -0.3915 (3-month)
We continue to have more positive than negative correlations with all correlations improving in a positive direction. Oil and gold are in the corner pocket of high positive correlation. Copper versus gold & copper versus oil are outside their recent inversions (i.e. both one-month & three-month value correlations are negative) as their 1-month correlations trend more positive. The metals & miners tend to do best when all correlations are positive.
According to my April models (see bottom of blog page): oil is presently overvalued with respect to gold by +1.03-standard deviations and copper is overvalued by +1.42-standard deviations. Copper is presently overvalued with respect to oil by +1.92-standard deviations.
One way to visualize these correlations over time is to plot the "near-term" 3-month versus the "short-term" 1-month correlations (aka "rho") as shown below in a graph of oil versus gold and copper versus gold. The blue line indicates the correlation trajectory since October 1st; the magenta line is more recent data (ref: China to the Rescue?):
In the case of oil versus gold, we start out on 10/1/10 in the "+,-" or "yellow" quadrant and move upward until both are positively correlated (i.e. in the "+,+" or "green" quadrant). Copper correlated positively faster than oil last fall and has was initially in the green quadrant longer. Correlation data in this region is typically considered bullish. After a brief venture into the "-,+" quadrant, the return of oil vs gold to the "+,+" side is bullish; the movement of copper vs gold into the "-,-" inversion region was a bearish development but its continuing trend into the "+,- region is encouraging. Stay tuned.
Gold:Oil, Oil:Copper & Gold:Copper Ratios
The Report has been tracking the stability of the gold:oil, oil:copper & gold:copper ratios. Although they ended last year rock solid (<3% variation, 1-standard deviation/mean) the ratios have diverged. The period of divergence is what prompted my January 14th comment to Adella Harding, Elko Daily Free Press, "The recent divergence of our lustrous friend [gold] from copper and oil...may signal a near-term correction for the overall metals and mining sector.". The mining sector is now trending back up from the March 15th low.
Once the ratios exceed 3% error, they become less useful in predicting the price moves of one commodity with respect to the another in the ratio pair.
For the past 3-months we have these statistics given this mornings' numbers:
mean 14.462 bbl/oz
variation > 3.0% limit at 5.88% (1-standard deviation/mean)
mean 22.11 lbs/bbl
variation > 3.0% limit at 9.67% (1-standard deviation/mean)
mean 318.03 lbs/oz
variation > 3.0% limit at 4.42% (1-standard deviation/mean)
Weekly Molybdenum Roundup
Spot prices for molybdenum oxide are in $17/lb territory out West and in Europe. The trend for both is again upward; I've bet that euro moly oxide breaks $17.20/lb by May Day. Western and Euro moly spot prices are now in a moderate contango with both 3-month and 15-month London Metal Exchange (LME) seller contracts. (contango occurs when the price of a commodity for future delivery is higher than the spot price, or a far future delivery price is higher than a nearer future delivery; backwardation is the opposite of contango).
The 3-month seller is at $17.46/lb is comfortably above the Colonel's mid-range moly price target for 2010 of $15.71/lb but below my target of $20.21/lb for 2011. The Report will give moly prices a "yellow-green" light on the Eureka Outlook Dashboard for now. I did believe we could see much higher prices this year although the turmoil in the Arab World turmoil and the crisis in Japan have put a damper on that expectation. There is an excellent analysis of the supply/demand argument for $20+/lb moly provided by General Moly's Seth Foreman in the General Moly Update.
Here is a detailed pricing summary for last week:
Western Moly Oxide $17.08/lb (FeMo65, the price tracked by Infomine - see the side bar graph in the lower right column)
Moly Oxide, Europe (Mo Drummed Molydbic Oxide EU) $17.10/lb (the price reported in the Metals Bulletin)
LME Futures Contracts
LME cash seller is at $38,150/metric ton $17.30/lb
3-Month (Buyer) $37,500/metric ton $17.01/lb
3-Month (Seller) $38,500/metric ton $17.46/lb
15-Month (Buyer) $38,725/metric ton $17.56/lb
15-Month (Seller) $39,725/metric ton $18.02/lb
Here is a 1-year chart of the LME 3-month contract (seller):
Daily Market Roundup
Enough talk, let's walk the walk:
Eureka Outlook Dashboard
4-WD is ON - The miners are still in a rough patch but there are some signs of improvement; The VIX or "fear index" is below 25; bellwether Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is now above both 50-day and 100-day moving averages and above its 200-day average of $44.85 (our new warning level, 03/04 update); 10-year Treasurys are safely below 4% preserving a low-interest rate environment.
The GREEN light is turned back on for Commodity Reflation with copper trading comfortably above $3.50/lb
The GREEN light is turned on for Stable Markets with the VIX below the 30 level (what's this?)
The YELLOW light is turned on for Inflation Watch as the Federal Reserve resumes buying Treasurys (aka QE2)
The GREEN light is turned back on for Investor Confidence as investment returns to the equity markets
The RED light is turned on our Fuel Gauge with oil above $100
A ORANGE light is ON for possible adverse regulation/legislation: Mine Safety Violations, Miner's claim fee, Miner taxation, Cortez Hills, mercury emissions , General Moly Mt. Hope Water Rights, U.S. House committee debates miner workplace safety bill, R&R Partners parts ways with Nevada Mining Association, Obama budget includes mining royalty , Mineral commission fights consolidation
Otherwise, all lights are green on the Eureka Outlook Dashboard (upper right, what's this?)
Commodity Market Morning Update
NYMEX/COMEX: Oil is down $0.59 in early trading at $112.20 (May contract, most active); Gold is down $4.7 to $1469.4 (April contract, most active); Silver is up $0.597 to $41.205 (May contract, most active); Copper is down $0.0045 to $4.4970 (May contract, most active)
Western Molybdenum Oxide is $17.08; European Molybdenum Oxide is $17.10; LME moly 3-month seller's contract is $17.46, LME cash seller is $17.30
Stock Market Morning Update
The DOW is up 55.14 points to 12,345.19; the S&P 500 is up 5.25 at 1,333.42
Miners are mixed:
Barrick (ABX) $53.99 down 0.70%
Newmont (NEM) $57.95 down 0.07%
US Gold (UXG) $9.49 down 0.94%
General Moly (Eureka Moly, LLC) (GMO) $5.60 down 0.71%
Thompson Creek (TC) $13.21 up 0.08%
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) $56.90 down 0.58% (a bellwether mining stock spanning copper, gold & molybdenum)
The Steels are mixed (a "tell" for General Moly & Thompson Creek):
ArcelorMittal (MT) $36.91 up 0.14% - global steel producer
POSCO (PKX) $110.88 down 1.44% - South Korean integrated steel producer
The Eureka Miner's Grubstake Portfolio is is down o.34% at $1,975,575.99 (what's this?).
Note 1 - West Texas intermediate (WTI), also known as Texas light sweet, is a type of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing and is the underlying commodity of New York Mercantile Exchange's (NYMEX) oil futures contracts. The price of WTI is often referenced in North American news reports on oil prices, alongside the price of North Sea Brent crude (Wiki).
Headline photograph by Mariana Titus
Write Colonel Possum at firstname.lastname@example.org for answers to your questions or to request e-mail updates on the market