Thursday, December 31, 2009
The Colonel Wishes You a Happy New Year!
It is 6:44 AM and time for the ole Colonel to wish you all a Happy New Year! You'll have to brew your own Raine's TGIF Red Label coffee tomorrow, the Report will be back on the air bright and early Monday, January 4. Unless a lightning bolt hits the markets latter today, I think we can safely say that 2009 has been a good'un: the S&P 500 is up 68% from its March low, gold is back over $1100/oz, the old greenback is feeling a bit more chipper, our local miner's have had a good run and the Eureka Miner's Grubstake Portfolio has earned more than a quarter million dollars.
In the metals, copper is king posting a new 16-month high of $3.3790 on the COMEX this morning (most active, March contract). This is a good omen for 2010 since copper has been a fairly reliable gauge of global economic recovery. Here is a MineWeb article on the prospects for base metals according to the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS):
Copper still the favourite base metal - RBS (Mineweb, 12/31/2009)
Certainly metals have been helped in 2009 by significant investor interest which in some cases has displaced supply/demand as a key price driver. Early in 2010 it is expected that molybdenum will launch along with cobalt on the London Metal Exchange (LME):
Cobalt and Molybdenum 2010
Here is a pretty good summary for why this is a good idea:
London Metal Exchange cobalt and molybdenum FAQ
The Brits are great hosts too and it should be fun with cocktails to boot:
"You are invited to join the LME and its members at a cocktail reception to celebrate the launch of the minor metals contracts. Held on the LME’s trading floor known as the ‘Ring’ you will have the opportunity to meet with key individuals from the broader metals community as well as key decision makers in the cobalt and molybdenum markets."
If the Colonel doesn't make this shindig, I do plan to build a molybdenum pricing model next year and share the results with our Eureka Moly LLC. This will be my sixth proprietary model; presently the Report models oil, gold, silver, copper and natural gas.
Loquita looks like she needs to go out, see you on Main Street tonight!
Enough talk, let's walk the walk:
4-WD is OFF - the VIX or "fear index" remains below 25; smoother road market conditions expected to continue (what's this?)
Yellow light is ON for possible adverse regulation/legislation: Cortez Hills & mercury emissions
Otherwise, all lights are green on the Eureka Outlook Dashboard (upper right, what's this?)
Oil is up $0.54 in early trading to $79.82 (February contract, most active); Gold is up $2.5 to $1100.0 (February contract, most active); Silver is up $0.108 to $16.910 (March contract); Copper is up $0.0135 to $3.3585 (March contract); Molybdenum is steady at $12.50 yesterday.
The DOW is down 52.60 points to 10495.91; the S&P 500 is down 4.17 points to 1122.25. The miners are mixed:
Barrick (ABX) $39.80 up 0.61%
Newmont (NEM) $47.65 up 0.13%
General Moly (Eureka Moly, LLC) (GMO) $2.07 down 0.48%
Freeport McMoran (FCX) $80.92 up 0.05% (a bellwether mining stock spanning gold, copper & molybdenum)
The Steels are mixed, (a "tell" for General Moly):
Nucor (NUE) $47.00 down 0.12% - domestic steel manufacturing
ArcelorMittal (MT) $46.08 down 0.41% - global steel producer
POSCO (PKX) $131.61 up 0.11% - South Korean integrated steel producer
The Eureka Miner's Grubstake Portfolio is is down 0.11% to $1,280,489.96 (what is this?).
Headline Photograph by Mariana Titus