Gold is on the road again!
Eureka, Nevada
Update: Friday, May 5, 2017 AM
The good news is that today's Labor Department numbers show that mining nationally continues to be on an uptrend reporting 186,200 jobs in April compared to 185,100 in March (this is ex-oil & gas folks).
Otherwise, gold had a rough week along with commodities. This morning's Comex price is $1,228.2 per ounce; copper $2.5045 per pound - ouch! My input to the Kitco News Weekly Gold Report:
My vote is down. Target gold price $1,200 per ounce. Target Silver price $15.9 per ounce.
A dramatic commodity retreat on renewed fears of a China economic slowdown followed by a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report* this morning places an odd dynamic on the yellow metal. Although dropping 3% for the week, gold has fared better in value than plummeting copper and oil. It has, however, been outpaced by the yen and lost considerable ground to the euro (nearly 4% decline in euro-terms).
U.S. unemployment at pre-crisis levels allows the Fed to stay on a trajectory of interest rate hikes which is a bearish headwind for gold. There appears to be enough residual fear in marketplace to keep gold above the key $1,200-level. With the euro at 6-month highs, the greatest upside potential is a surprise Le Pen win in the final weekend elections. That outcome would no doubt plummet the euro and return gold to $1,250+ territory. China fears may also be a bit overdone with the yuan remaining very stable below 7 USD/CNY. A rebound in the metal complex would be bullish for gold.
On the downside, a Macron victory in France would likely test the $1,200-level for gold with further loses to the euro currency.
I therefore believe it more likely to find gold at $1,200 next Friday than $1,250+.
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* 211,000 jobs added (190,000 expected); 4.4% unemployment (4.6% expected)
Additional Note:
The fate of the Chinese yuan remains a key tell for gold and copper - a material drop in valuation could boost gold and depress copper prices. Aggressive liquidity tightening by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has eased, stabilizing the yuan below 7 USD/CNY. However, defending their currency brought China foreign reserves to a 6-year low earlier this year. A less vigorous defense is now ongoing and its recent low volatility suggests the yuan remains a currency yawn. This morning, the yuan has strengthened slightly trading at 6.8994 USD/CNY (1-month volatility* is 0.09%).
Have a great weekend!
* by comparison the euro & yen 1-month volatilites are 1.31% & 1.25% respectively.
Weekly Summary updated for May 5, 2017 AM Update (something new!)
(click on table for larger size)
My latest column in Kitco News, Montreal:
Validating Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury relation to the Copper:Gold Ratio (Kitco News, April 18,2017)
My commentary in the the Spring 2017 Mining Quarterly:
Online Edition (pages 44-46): Spring 2017 Mining Quarterly
McEwen Mining (MUX) $2.70 per share (AM)
Gold Bar Project on Track, McEwen Rocks; Gold Bounce Next Week? (Eureka Miner, 03/03/2017)
McEwen Mining & Gold Bar Thumbs Up for 2017! (Eureka Miner, 12/30/16)
General Moly (GMO) $0.32 per share (AM); Moly oxide (LME) $6.92 per pound
An unofficial source told me today that a much anticipated Nevada Supreme Court decision regarding water rights has been moved from April 4th to May 1st.
What's Up with General Moly (GMO)? EM Talks to CEO Bruce Hansen (Eureka Miner, 1/27/17)
Update: Friday, April 28, 2017 AM
Gold has been on a see-saw this week but we could see a surprise to the upside. This morning's Comex price is $1,267.3 per ounce. My input to the Kitco News Weekly Gold Report:
My vote is up. Target gold price $1,280 per ounce. Target Silver price $17.4 per ounce.
The push-pull on gold price continued this week keeping the yellow metal in a range of $1,260 to $1,280 per ounce. Gold positives continue to be escalating tensions in North Korea although fears of a FN victory in France have abated some as markets await the May 7 final round of voting.
An unexpectedly high inflation number in Europe* reported this morning provides additional lift.
Although today's disappointing GDP number** plumbs the slowest rate in 3-years at 0.7%, equity markets seem little disturbed in a season of mostly positive earnings reports and the promise of a business friendly tax reform plan. Rising stocks continue to be a headwind for gold in 2017.
For the week, gold crushed companion silver [gold-to-silver ratio is above 73, levels not seen since November] but lost considerable ground to the euro, copper, oil and the broader Bloomberg commodity index (BCOM). In currencies, gold slipped substantially in euro terms but eked out a gain relative to the weakening yen. The yellow metal and yen compete for safe haven status which has been on the back foot most of this week [see updated weekly summary below].
A miscalculation in North Korea or negative outcome in French elections could easily boost gold above $1,300 per ounce.
More benign geopolitical outcomes and rallying stocks next week could push gold below Wednesday's low at $1,260.7 but not lower than a solid floor at $1,250. I believe it more likely to find gold at $1,280 next Friday.
* Europe inflation 1.9%; 1.2% core
** U.S. first quarter 2017 GDP 0.7% versus 1.2% expected . Fourth quarter 2016 GDP was 2.1%
Additional Note:
The fate of the Chinese yuan remains a key tell for gold and copper - a material drop in valuation could boost gold and depress copper prices. Aggressive liquidity tightening by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has eased, stabilizing the yuan below 7 USD/CNY. However, defending their currency brought China foreign reserves to a 6-year low earlier this year. A less vigorous defense is now ongoing and its recent low volatility suggests the yuan has become a currency yawn. This morning, the yuan has strengthened slightly trading at 6.8899 USD/CNY (1-month volatility* is 0.10%).
Have a great weekend!
* by comparison the euro & yen 1-month volatilites are 1.1% & 1.0% respectively.
Weekly Summary updated for 4/28/17 AM Update (something new!)
(click on table for larger size)
My latest column in Kitco News, Montreal:
Validating Gundlach's 10-yr Treasury relation to the Copper:Gold Ratio (Kitco News, April 18,2017)
My commentary in the the Spring 2017 Mining Quarterly:
Online Edition (pages 44-46): Spring 2017 Mining Quarterly
McEwen Mining (MUX) $2.99 per share (AM)
Gold Bar Project on Track, McEwen Rocks; Gold Bounce Next Week? (Eureka Miner, 03/03/2017)
McEwen Mining & Gold Bar Thumbs Up for 2017! (Eureka Miner, 12/30/16)
General Moly (GMO) $0.37 per share (AM); Moly oxide (LME) $6.92 per pound
Oral arguments were heard by the Nevada Supreme Court decision regarding water rights on Monday, May 1st.
What's Up with General Moly (GMO)? EM Talks to CEO Bruce Hansen (Eureka Miner, 1/27/17)
Friday, April 21, 2017 AM
Gold Nearly Scores $1,300
Morning Miners!
Gold nearly scored $1,300 per ounce this week. My input to the Weekly Kitco Gold Survey:
My vote is up. Target gold price $1,290 per ounce . Target Silver price $18.0 per ounce.
A dipole of positive and negative forces has suspended gold price in a tight range around the $1,280-level this week. On the positive, strong earnings reports from GE and Honeywell this morning and a hint from the Treasury that delayed tax reform may now come sooner than later are bullish equities but place downward pressure on gold price. On the negative, geopolitical tensions with North Korea and Russia, a terror attack in Paris and French presidential elections this Sunday put a solid price floor under the yellow metal.
A strong [Marine Le Pen, National Front] FN showing in first round of French voting or miscalculation in North Korea could easily boost gold above $1,300 per ounce - on Monday, Comex prices nearly touched this key level peaking at $1,297.4. More benign geopolitical outcomes and rallying stocks on strong earnings next week could push gold below Wednesday's low at $1,275.4 but not lower than a solid floor at $1,250. I believe it more likely to find gold at $1,290 next Friday.
For the week, gold raced ahead of declining oil and copper prices as well as the broader Bloomberg commodity index (BCOM). Gold also showed strength in terms of yen but loss some ground to the euro. Gold in euro terms will be highly sensitive to Sunday's election, already within striking distance of its July high last year. [see summary table above and charts below]
Additional Note:
The fate of the Chinese yuan remains a key tell for gold and copper - a material drop in valuation could boost gold and depress copper prices. Aggressive liquidity tightening by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has eased, stabilizing the yuan below 7 USD/CNY. However, defending their currency brought China foreign reserves to a 6-year low earlier this year. A less vigorous defense is now ongoing and its recent low volatility suggests the yuan has become a currency yawn. This morning, the yuan has weakened slightly trading at 6.8844 USD/CNY (1-month volatility* is 0.13%).
Have a great weekend!
* by comparison the euro & yen 1-month volatilites are roughly 0.8% & 1.0% respectively.
Eureka, Nevada
McEwen Mining Gold Bar Progress!
Tuesday, McEwen Mining (MUX) released an upbeat quarterly report with an update on Eureka's Gold Bar project:
McEwen Mining Reports Q1 2017 Production Results (Press release, 4/18/2017)
"Gold Bar Project, Nevada – Advancing Towards Construction: Permitting for the Gold Bar Project is advancing and remains on schedule to receive a Record of Decision in the third quarter of 2017. The Bureau of Land Management published the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) in the Federal Register on March 3rd, 2017 and the 45-day public comment period is now closed for the DEIS. Comments received during the public comment period will be addressed and incorporated in the final Environmental Impact Statement."
The BLM held a meeting for public comment on the Gold Bar Project March 22 at the Opera House.
Best of luck to the McEwen team. Go Gold Bar!
Gold Price Outlook 2017
Tuesday, McEwen Mining (MUX) released an upbeat quarterly report with an update on Eureka's Gold Bar project:
McEwen Mining Reports Q1 2017 Production Results (Press release, 4/18/2017)
"Gold Bar Project, Nevada – Advancing Towards Construction: Permitting for the Gold Bar Project is advancing and remains on schedule to receive a Record of Decision in the third quarter of 2017. The Bureau of Land Management published the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) in the Federal Register on March 3rd, 2017 and the 45-day public comment period is now closed for the DEIS. Comments received during the public comment period will be addressed and incorporated in the final Environmental Impact Statement."
The BLM held a meeting for public comment on the Gold Bar Project March 22 at the Opera House.
Best of luck to the McEwen team. Go Gold Bar!
Gold Price Outlook 2017
Gold started the year nicely and should remain in my revised range of $1,180 to $1,320 per ounce*. Average gold price for 2017 is expected to print above $1,200 per ounce with an outside chance to see $1,400 given an adverse outcome for European elections, evolving U.S. trade policies or geo-political shocks (e.g., North Korea, Syria).
Gold has gained ground on the embattled euro and yen. Post-election, gold in euro and yen terms is up and safely above 2013 lows (chart below) and both are above pre-election levels. It was somewhat worrisome that gold in euro terms broke below uptrend support March 9, but it has since recovered marching steadily to the highs if 2016.
An important gold ratio to watch is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP (see "Chart to Watch" below).
Gold ratios relative to copper and oil are stabilizing near historically less extreme levels which is a healthy sign. Geo-political events and concerns about the timing and efficacy of the new administration's policies have restored glitter to gold in 2017.
Gold near my low-range of $1,180 per ounce-level is a tempting "buy."
(please do your own research, markets can turn on you faster than a feral cat!)
*My pre-election October range for gold price was $1,240 to $1,320 per ounce, Winter 2016 Edition of the Mining Quarterly:
Storms Never Last: Positive News for Gold, Oil & Copper
My commentary in the just released Spring 2017 Mining Quarterly reaffirms an average price above $1,200 per ounce with a potential run at $1,400:
Gold in euro & yen terms trending higher
Chart to WatchHere's a new chart to watch. Click on the image for a larger size:
Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio
An important gold ratio to watch is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016. It bottomed again December 20, 2016 trended higher but then bearishly bottomed again March 15, 2017. We must stay above the December bottom (0.4973)! A second uptrend is in place, currently this AM the AUSP is a strong 0.5452.
Cheers,
Colonel Possum & Mariana
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