Hmm...Brexit?
South Ranch - Eureka, Nevada
Friday, July 1, 2016 AM (Update to last report)
Comex gold $1,340.6 per troy ounce
Comex silver $19.445 per troy ounce
Comex copper $2.1950 per pound
Gold & silver still on a run. My input to this morning's Kitco Gold Survey:
With domestic equity markets returned to pre-Brexit levels buttressed by global rallies elsewhere, it is tempting to believe the Brexit storm has passed. Gold and currencies tell a different story. Market uncertainty keeps the pound sterling near its 31-year low, yen strength is approaching the 100-level and the yellow metal fast approaching $1,400 per troy ounce.
The world awaits stimulus from somewhere - either BOE [Bank of England] or BOJ [Bank of Japan] accommodation would provide a catalyst higher. In this light, I remain bullish gold:
My vote is up. Next week target price $1,360 per troy ounce.
Perhaps more exciting is the continuing silver story. This morning's dealings above $19 per troy ounce have broken a second multi-year gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) trend line in silver's favor (chart below). The ratio has fallen below 70 which implies $20-plus prices if gold can indeed reach $1,400.
I checked with gold and silver trader Sumeru Salla of the renowned Nathabhai Silver Jewelry in Mumbai who informed me, "...INR [Indian rupee] silver had more solid ground than INR gold since the BRexit outcome- a temporary shift from the usual trend. Surprisingly, physical gold is available at a 5% discount to MCX rates [Indian metals & energy futures market]. If given a choice, I would buy silver over gold because of stricter excise norms affecting the gold jewelry industry. Outlook will need to be revised after August festive demand though."
Hi-ho silver away!
Friday, June 24, 2016 AM
My input to this morning's Kitco Gold Survey (more commentary below):
Gold has behaved more like a currency than a commodity since March 2015 and it proudly displayed that character post-Brexit vote last night [Britain votes to leave the European Union].
Touching $1,350+ levels against a rising U.S. dollar, gold posted a new high against the euro (levels not seen since March 2013) and competed positively with the yen for safe haven status (see chart).
With all the uncertainty the Brexit result will bring to markets in the coming days, gold's new momentum should carry prices higher than this AM's dealings (Comex currently $1,318).
My vote is up. Target price $1,340 per troy ounce.
Numbers used for analysis (June, 24 early AM prices):
Comex gold $1,340.6 per troy ounce
Comex silver $19.445 per troy ounce
Comex copper $2.1950 per pound
Gold & silver still on a run. My input to this morning's Kitco Gold Survey:
With domestic equity markets returned to pre-Brexit levels buttressed by global rallies elsewhere, it is tempting to believe the Brexit storm has passed. Gold and currencies tell a different story. Market uncertainty keeps the pound sterling near its 31-year low, yen strength is approaching the 100-level and the yellow metal fast approaching $1,400 per troy ounce.
The world awaits stimulus from somewhere - either BOE [Bank of England] or BOJ [Bank of Japan] accommodation would provide a catalyst higher. In this light, I remain bullish gold:
My vote is up. Next week target price $1,360 per troy ounce.
Perhaps more exciting is the continuing silver story. This morning's dealings above $19 per troy ounce have broken a second multi-year gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) trend line in silver's favor (chart below). The ratio has fallen below 70 which implies $20-plus prices if gold can indeed reach $1,400.
I checked with gold and silver trader Sumeru Salla of the renowned Nathabhai Silver Jewelry in Mumbai who informed me, "...INR [Indian rupee] silver had more solid ground than INR gold since the BRexit outcome- a temporary shift from the usual trend. Surprisingly, physical gold is available at a 5% discount to MCX rates [Indian metals & energy futures market]. If given a choice, I would buy silver over gold because of stricter excise norms affecting the gold jewelry industry. Outlook will need to be revised after August festive demand though."
Hi-ho silver away!
(Click on image for larger size)
Friday, June 24, 2016 AM
My input to this morning's Kitco Gold Survey (more commentary below):
Gold has behaved more like a currency than a commodity since March 2015 and it proudly displayed that character post-Brexit vote last night [Britain votes to leave the European Union].
Touching $1,350+ levels against a rising U.S. dollar, gold posted a new high against the euro (levels not seen since March 2013) and competed positively with the yen for safe haven status (see chart).
With all the uncertainty the Brexit result will bring to markets in the coming days, gold's new momentum should carry prices higher than this AM's dealings (Comex currently $1,318).
My vote is up. Target price $1,340 per troy ounce.
Key chart to watch (click on image for larger size)
Summer Edition 2016 - Mining Quarterly
The Summer Edition 2016 of Mining Quarterly is on the street!
Marianne Kobak McKown has done another outstanding job of getting the Mining Quarterly in step with this year's Mining Expo! There are excellent columns on Silver Strand's Marigold Mine, Newmont's conservation efforts at IL ranch, Jerritt canyon safety improvements, Barrick' Goldstrike and much, much more.
My column on silver's good year was also carried in the Elko Daily Free Press:
Hi Ho Silver away! Silver steps out from gold's shadow (June 12, 2106)
(Click on this link for the online Mining Quarterly)
Happy reading!
Numbers used for analysis (June, 24 early AM prices):
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
S&P GSCI 370.40, 07/16 contract (intraday low 279.25 1/20/2015)
Nymex/Comex (most active contracts)
Nymex oil (WTI) $47.98 per barrel
Brent crude $ 48.60 per barrel
Comex copper $2.1205 per pound
Comex gold $1,319.8 per troy ounce
Comex silver $17.780 per troy ounce
Gold touches $1,362; Silver, $18.4 on Brexit Vote; Global Markets Plummet
Morning Miners!
The U.K. has voted to leave the European Union.
The so called "Brexit vote" started yesterday and was not tallied until the wee hours. Betting parlors held odds highly in favor of a "Remain" outcome - so did global markets. This report also thought a "Leave" result to be unlikely and that gold prices would fall by this Friday. When you are wrong it is nice to have lots of company.
I watched Bloomberg Asia News as results trickled in after polls closed at 10:00 p.m. London time. A reporter called it "squeaky bum time" with the first a wild swing in pound sterling. This is a British expression for a fear-induced contraction of one's posterior region.
The Wall Street Journal reported the rapid descent of the pound:
A victory for Leave in Swansea, in South Wales, helped drive the pound still lower—down below $1.41, off more than 5% from just before the polls closed. Around 2:30 a.m. in London, more than four hours after the polls had closed, Betfair had made Leave the favorite, with odds of 63%.
Earlier in the day the bookies were 80% for Remain. The pound had touched $1.50 per pound on bullish optimism and dipped to a 30-year low of $1.32 as more Leave tallies came in. That's a drop of 12% - currencies typically move much less than 1% in a day [Friday close 1.3684, down 8.8%]. As the Brexit vote tally turned away from Remain, a Bloomberg Asia correspondent watched the pound sterling-based currency board turn from red to magenta remarking, "I've never seen that color before!"
I started to have doubts on Thursday when a CNBC Business reporter had trouble finding any Remain voters on the streets of London. She then tried to go into a betting parlor but was given the boot. The pub next door was more friendly but only one Remain punter was found.
Another clue of reversing fortune were long lines queueing up at exchange houses. Wells Fargo's Janet Mirasola remarked this morning, "The smartest man in the room turned out to be that Brit on the street who yesterday flooded banks by cashing in their hard earned pounds at the highest value this year buying Euros for their holidays!!"
U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron resigned this morning. Ouch!
Global equity markets are down by high single-digit or double-digits. Nuts!
The U.S. markets are now open and the DOW is off a whopping 522 points at 17,489; the S&P 500 is down 65.7 points at 2,047.61 [10:17 a.m. Eureka time, Friday close: 17,400.75 DOW, 2037.41 S&P 500]. However, on a percentage basis these losses, down 2.9% and 3.1% respectively, are much tamer than some foreign exchanges. The Japanese Nikkei Index fell nearly 8%. The U.S. is still perceived to be in a stronger position than an unraveling Europe or wobbly China. Many countries have negative interest rates; our government bonds are in high demand and positive (our 10-year Treasury is presently 1.58%) [Monday 6/27 update - Wells Fargo's Janet Mirasola reports: In dollar terms Friday's loss of $2.08 trillion on global equity markets overtook the previous record from Sept. 29th 2008, the day when Congress rejected a $700 billion bailout package for Wall St. during the financial crisis when global markets lost $1.94 trillion]
It will take quite some time to understand the full global impact of this decision by English voters. Is there light in this market tunnel for Eureka? Perhaps...
Barrick & Newmont Rock
In all the market carnage, gold miners are getting a healthy bounce today. Barrick (ABX) is presently up 5.7% at $20.46 per share; Nemont is up 5.5% at $16.31. Even if these gains are given back when the gold dust settles, Barrick is still up more than 150% from mid-January lows and Newmont around 125%. With negative interest rates and uncertainty about the future of the European Union, gold miners should be in good shape and their product in demand. Let's see if things start changing locally for the better, pardner.
$1,300 is the new $1,250
One gold trader summed up Friday's gold price action, "$1,300 is the new $1,250." There's some truth to this. In the Summer Edition 2016 of Mining Quarterly , I gave $1,350 per troy ounce as a cap for 2016 gold price given anticipated interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The violent market response to Brexit likely puts the Fed in pause mode for some time and $1,400 may be a better target now for higher prices. At $1,400, silver may have a shot at $20 per troy ounce in 2016.
Copper was spared a dramatic selloff Friday reaching a low of $2.0665 per pound to a Friday close of $2.1105. It is important to watch the red metal for a journey below $2 in the coming months. If it is spared significant downside, Brexit may be more of a transient than a lasting shift in the market trade winds.
Remember the U.K. is still "in" the European Union, getting out is at least a 2-year process. David Cameron has resigned but will probably serve until this fall as a new government is formed. Brexit will be around for quite some time.
Cheers - Colonel
Photos by Mariana Titus if not otherwise noted
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