Gold Pops $1,539.5 on China, Fed & Tweets; If Copper < $2.5 Take Cover!

Wells Fargo Building

Bunker Hill, Los Angeles 

Friday, August 23, 2019 AM

*** NEWS UPDATE 2:23 EDT ***

Comex Gold touched $1,540.3 at 1:30 EDT

The gold-to-copper ratio has moved above 600 pounds per ounce

The U.S. Dollar Index (.DXY), which was quite strong this morning, has dropped more than 0.5% - a big move for currencies on fears of currency intervention by the U.S. Treasury

Comex gold (12/19 contract) $1,538.3 per ounce, 

Comex copper (9/19 contract) $2.5290 per pound

DXY 97.62 down 0.55%

DOW is down 600 points

***

Follow the ole Colonel on twitter @Eurekaminer

Next Week Target Gold Price: $1,525 per ounce, Target Silver Price: $17.38 per ounce.

High/Low range: $1,560/$1,500 per ounce

An easy-to-understand overview on gold (32 slides, read explanation below each slide): History of gold and which countries have the most

Here's a column by renowned commodities journalist Debbie Carlson on how to smartly buy silver:

How to Invest in Silver (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)

Morning Miners,

If crazy is the new normal then today is just another day. Yikes!

Events are unfolding so rapidly please allow me to start with just a snapshot at 9:15 am Eureka Time: The benchmark DOW Jones Industrial Average is down more than 450 points, Comex gold pegged $1,539.5 per ounce at 7:00 am and Comex copper is dangerously close to $2.5 per pound - a level not seen since June 2017.

I went to bed last night prepared to say that gold was getting ready for a well-deserved nap next week as it dropped down towards the $1,500-level. Then China announced tariffs on the U.S. That brought gold back up to $1,514 when I wrote my report for Kitco News (see below). Then the President tweeted (and ordered) that U.S. businesses find alternatives to doing business with the second largest economy in the world. That pushed gold to its morning high along with Fed Chairman Powell saying the world economy is deteriorating at the annual conference for central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. 

Additional tweets shot a few more arrows at Powell who didn't hint at a change in monetary policy one way or the other. There will apparently be an impromptu White House announcement this afternoon about something. That's all we know right now.

Gold and copper prices may be in a very different place by the time you read this on a very volatile Friday. The ole Colonel is glad its almost the weekend. Now it's 9:35 am and here's where we are trading:

Comex gold (12/19 contract) $1,533.1 per ounce, 

Comex silver (9/19 contract) $17.36 per ounce

Comex copper (9/19 contract) $2.5320 per pound

The analysis below was done pre-Tweet Storm:

Comex gold (12/19 contract) $1,514.8 per ounce, 

Comex silver (9/19 contract) $17.26 per ounce

Comex copper (9/19 contract) $2.5535 per pound

I'm not inclined to change my gold forecast for next week with consolidation at $1,525 given the recent history for how fast things can cool down after boiling points. If I'm wrong we may be seeing $1,560 or beyond. We'll exceed that level sometime this year for sure.

Bottom line, if copper doesn't fall below $2.5 per pound, we'll survive the summer with industrial metals. Otherwise...stay tuned.

Keep the faith! My bottom line bet is that gold will go further up the stairs in 2019.

Here's a quick look at our local miners compared to my last report:

Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD)  $19.12 per share ($18.30) 

McEwen Mining (MUX)  $1.9400 per share ($1.8220)  

Prophecy Development Corp. $0.2121 (OTC:PRPCF) per share ( $0.1600)

General Moly (GMO)  $0.1755 per share ($0.1950 )

Have a good weekend!

DoubleLine® Capital Meeting

I had a great meeting Wednesday at DoubleLine® Capital in downtown Los Angeles. It is on the 18th floor of the Wells Fargo Building by the Modern Museum of Contemporary Art. This is the Bunker Hill district with the historical "Angel's Flight." Up or down for $1 - what a great ride!

DoubleLine® had asked that I present some of the analytic tools I've developed for commodity market analysis. Very nice folks and terrific collectors of art. An exceptionally innovative, creative environment for talented young folks behind their multi-screen trading desks. Here are some photos of my visit, the picture of me is a Jeffrey Sherman original - must take Mariana Titus here, she'll love this art and good vibe. Thank you DoubleLine®!

The ole Colonel at DoubleLine®

Looking Towards Diamond Peak, NV from the 18th floor

L.A. City Hall in the background

Angel's Flight

Bunker Hill, Los Angeles

Crossroads for Silver Remain

Comex silver is above $17 per ounce. 

Please check this out if you get the silver bug:

How to Invest in Silver (Debbie Carlson, U.S. News & World Report, August 1, 2019)

The gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) set a new high July 11 at 91.3 ounce per ounce. We've been waiting for a move down and it is underway - bullish for silver if the Lustrous One recovers more territory. 

At 88.8:1, silver is still historically very, very cheap relative to gold!

The 10-year average GSR is much lower at 66.2 ounce per ounce.

Gold-to-Silver Ratio

Historical note:

If gold and silver are legal tender (see gold overview link below headline photo), then you have to come up with a set value for them and figure out which is more valuable than the other. In 1792, the U.S. fixed its price at 15:1. This means that 1 troy ounce — the long-used standard for measuring precious metals — of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver. Over the years, as this ratio has changed, precious metal investors have used it as a signal of when to buy.

Stay tuned.

Inflation Watch

Inflation expectations made a high April 23, 2018 above trend lines of higher lows (dotted lines, click on chart for larger size). Those trend lines were broken dramatically to the downside late last year and now appear to diving much lower.

10-year Inflation Expectations

Note: In the above chart inflation expectations peaked April 23, 2018 at 2.18%. May 29 broke a trend line of higher-lows. The older trend lines of higher-lows are shown in dark blue. Those trends extend from June 21, 2017 low of 1.66%. This week, expectations  remain below the June 17 low of 1.61%, presently 1.55% as of Thursday. 

Many believe, including the ole Colonel, that gold price is more sensitive to inflation expectations than other measure of inflation. My January Kitco News commentary explains the importance of tracking "real rates" which are a function of inflation expectations:

 Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019 (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)

Interest rates and inflation numbers going forward are greatly influenced by central bank policy worldwide. This Kitco commentary discusses what some of the moving parts are as well as useful indicators - watch the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and euro/yen cross rate:

The Gartman Gold Trade Revisited (Kitco News, 2/14/2018)

Several of the charts in these columns are updated in this report.

 Old Glory

Eureka, Nevada

Scorecard 

Here's a scorecard on where we stand with some of our favorite metals. 

Intraday highs on the Comex futures exchange (note continuous chart baseline): 

Gold $1,365.4 per ounce (continuous chart April, 2018)

Silver $18.160 per ounce (continuous chart September 2017))

Copper $3.2955 per pound ($7,265 per tonne, continuous chart December 2017)

Comex copper traded down 2.4% (9:35 am PDT) for the week.  Presently trading at $2.5320 per pound ($5,582 per tonne), the red metal is just inside bear territory, 23.3% below the December 2017 high. Maintaining prices above $6,000 per tonne is a key benchmark to price recovery; above $6,500 is bullish. 

Improving global growth had kept the red metal above the key $3 per pound-level in 2017. Initial trade war fears in 2018 dipped the red metal below this mark but copper then rebounded above $3. Trade war tensions with China and deteriorating economic conditions there coupled with a strong U.S. dollar sent the red metal plummeting. Copper continues to suffer with a bleaker global growth forecast and an unresolved U.S./China trade conflicts.

Here's how Freeport McMoRan (FCX) CEO Richard Adkerson recently framed challenges for the red metal as reported by the Wall Street Journal:

“We have this great inventory of opportunities, but like other projects in the industry, they require prices higher than today’s price to develop...If global growth turns down, then we won’t be in a position to invest in these resources.” He also added, “Investors continue to be reticent about our sector...That’s likely to be the case until there’s some clarity on the direction of this trade issue.”

(Fall in Copper Prices Threatens to Drive Metal Shortages, Amrith Ramkumar, WSJ, 8/9/2019) 

Total copper stored in LME and Nymex warehouses is 0.372 million tonnes, moving up now but still below the 0.5 million tonne mark of early-2018. The Nymex warehouse tonnage is behind the LME but  continues to rise above the 40,000 tonne mark this week.

LME inventories are moving up: 

It is important to keep our eyes on the Nymex inventories which are moving higher but still way below the LME (LME 329,575 versus Nymex 42,031 tonnes):

My Input to Kitco News 

Next Week target gold price $1,525 per ounce. Target silver price $17.38 per ounce.

Here is my input to the Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey (this was before WH tweet storm, see above, but much remains the same thinking in the larger sense):

I was prepared to be neutral on gold until the Chinese tariffs rolled in this morning. Gold has more near-term upside and its longer term prospects have a solid foundation. Gold's presence above the $1,500-level continues to be impressive given the backdrop of a very strong U.S. dollar* and muted inflation. Real rates remain near 0.0% making the lustrous metal very competitive given negative interest rates in Europe and Japan.** 

The outcome of the Jackson Hole Summit, whether the Fed cuts rates further and escalating U.S. trade tensions with China provide buoyancy to safe havens like gold until those uncertainty clear. Also geopolitical flash points in Hong Kong and Kashmir add more flotation to gold prices. Interestingly the Indian rupee is starting to show strong correlation with the yellow metal on a 1-month basis (+0.92) - something to monitor!

On the commodity front, copper appears to be at a critical point - descent below the $2.5 per pound-level is a strong signal that all is not well in the global climate. The gold-to-copper ratio hit a new high this morning. Another key indicator to monitor!

I believe Comex gold will regain momentum next week and consolidate gains at the the $1,525-level with silver following at $17.38. 

* the U.S. Dollar Index is only marginally down from its 7/31 high (98.31 vs. 98.52)

**German Bund = -0.66; France 10-yr =  -0.36%; Japanese 10-yr =  -0.24%

Note:

The fate of the Chinese yuan remains a key tell for gold and copper; a material drop in valuation could impact copper negatively. Something to watch: the yuan dramatically weakened from mid-April 2018, strengthened and then weakened again this year breaking above the key 7 USDCNY level this month.

The yuan is currently at 7.0847 USDCNY with a lot of daylight above the March 26, 2018 low (i.e. much stronger level) of 6.2342. 1-month yuan volatility is elevated this week at 1.07% but stabilizing. Something to watch compared to 1-month volatilities of euro, yen and gold.

The euro & yen 1-month volatilites arealso up, 0.52% & 1.05% respectively; Comex gold 1-month volatility is an elevated 2.42%.

Weekly Summary August 23, 2019

Yearly Summary for 2018

(click on table for larger size)

Although Comex gold price lost some steam in 2018 (down 2.1%) it made healthy gains on key commodities copper and oil (up 22.8% & 30.2%). Against the broader Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOMTR:IND), it advanced a respectable 10.3%. 

Importantly the yellow metal outpaced the S&P 500 stock index by 4.3% making it a better investment than domestic stocks for 2019. This leaves gold it in a strong position for 2019.

Only the Japanese yen, an alternative safe haven, fared better by gaining 4.1% over gold for the year.

Yearly Summary for 2017

(click on table for larger size)

Comex gold gained nearly 14% for 2017 but was outpaced by Comex copper that enjoyed a 32% uptick in price. Comex silver lagged both for a  respectable 7.2% gain. Overall, gold gained 12% on the broader Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOMTR:IND) which includes everything from crude oil to things that oink. In terms of major currencies, gold in terms of yen advanced almost 10% but slipped 0.4% relative to the strengthening euro.

Although gold slipped 5% in value relative to the S&P 500 it was not a bad year at all for the yellow metal!

Gold Price Outlook for 2019

You may remember my beer bet earlier this year, "$1,380+ by May Day." I lost that bet but only by 35 market-days - the underpinnings for a gold rally in 2019 are strong and growing stronger. How about $1,500 before Christmas? How about by August 7, 2019! Wow, that was fast!

Need to re-think the next level higher - stay tuned.

Here's some background:

Gold Versus Real Rates: $1,380+ by May Day 2019 (Kitco News, 1/2/2019)

In addition to real rates, other important charts to monitor are the gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP (see "Chart to Watch" below) and gold in terms of major currencies euro and Japanese yen (directly below). An explanation of the charts below is given in this Kitco News column:

The Gartman Gold Trade Revisited (Kitco News, 2/14/2018)

Gold value for all three currencies are stabilizing for the week (at least when I did this analysis!). Relative value has generally trended higher from a double-bottom in U.S. dollar terms (August 17 & September 27, 2018) : 

Click on the image for a larger size:

Gold in euro & yen terms with margin above 2013 lows

Divergence continues for gold in terms of euro compared to yen:

Gold euro/yen spread widens again since 2018

Note for currency buffs: Value parity in the above chart occurs when the EUR/JPY cross rate is 139.24; something to watch for - presently at 117.66, it remains very divergent from parity.

Chart to Watch

Here's a chart to watch for 2019. Click on the image for a larger size:

Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio

An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016 (0.6849). It bottomed December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly bottomed again December, 12, 2017 (0.4661) and again October 1, 2018 (0.4063). Currently this AM the AUSP is at 0.5218 and very close to the high of 0.5409 set at the close December 21, 2018. Importantly, the ratio has left the downward trending channel with a new trend of higher-lows starting with the October, 2018 low.

Cheers,

Colonel Possum & Mariana

Photos by Mariana Titus if not otherwise