Gold $1,339 - Clouds on Horizon? Tariffs/Sanctions Jolt Metals

Windfall Mine
Eureka, Nevada

Friday, April 20, 2018 AM

Latest Mining Quarterly! (Checkout story on McEwen Mining's Gold Bar Project)

McEwen Mining Reports Q1 2018 Production Results (Press release, 4/16/2018)

Next Week: Target gold price $1,320 per ounce. Target Silver price $16.9 per ounce.

Morning Miners!

Presently trading at $1,338.6 per ounce on the Comex exchange, gold losses for the week are still small but there are ominous clouds forming on the horizon for the lustrous metal. Importantly, gold has lost value across a broad set of assets including domestic stocks, key commodities and major currencies - what's going on?

As I explain my weekly input to the Kitco Gold Survey (below), inflation is ticking back up but losing the race with rising interest rates which now exceed a key level for the 10-year Treasury. Mortgage rates, which roughly follow this benchmark, hit their highest level since the end of March. The move higher from a tight range could be signaling the start of another steady rise*.

Also the U.S. dollar, in a slump for most of 2018, has regained some mojo trending higher since Monday. This is a headwind for dollarized commodities which include gold and base metals. The U.S. Dollar Index is again above 90.

The biggest news in the metal complex is the meteoric rise in aluminum prices to 7-year highs. This is a result of proposed aluminum tariffs and in particular, active sanctions against Russian supplier Rusal. The Russian company accounts for a full 6% of global supply. Nickel has also shot higher too on anticipation of further sanctions. A rise in base metal prices feeds inflation fears.

Unfortunately, the yellow metal isn't getting much lift from rising metal prices. A political/geopolitical shock could easily reverse gold's fortunes but so far our favorite metal has missed the party this week.

As mentioned last week, Goldman Sachs has doubled down on its "overweight" recommendation for raw materials, reiterating the view that commodities will yield returns of 10% over the next 12 months. 

* Friday closing yield 2.9510% > 2.9%; Mortgage rate 4.49% 30-year, fixed

Inflation Watch

Inflation expectations made a new 2018 high this week returning above trend (blue dotted line, click on chart for larger size). 

10-year Inflation Expectations

Note: In the above chart inflation expectations peaked at 2.14% February 2 but were surpassed Wednesday at 2.16%.

Interest rates and inflation numbers going forward are greatly influenced by central bank policy worldwide. My latest Kitco commentary discusses what some of the moving parts are as well as useful indicators - watch the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and euro/yen cross rate:

The Gartman Gold Trade Revisited (Kitco News, 2/14/2018)

Several of the charts in this column are updated below.

Have a fun weekend!

Windfall Mine, looking southwest

Eureka, Nevada

Scorecard 

Here's our scorecard on where we stand for the last six months:

Intraday highs on the Comex futures exchange: 

Gold $1,370.5 per ounce January 25, 2018 (April 2018 contract)

Silver $18.160 per ounce September 8, 2017 (Continuous chart))

Copper $3.3335 per pound ($7,349 per tonne) December 28, 2017 (May 2018 contract)

Comex copper is presently trading at $3.1360 per pound ($6,914 per tonne), 5.9% below December's high. Improving global growth has kept the red metal above the key $3 per pound level with an added boost from passage of Tax Reform and expectations for U.S. infrastructure spending. Trade war fears dipped the red metal below this mark but copper is now back above $3.

Copper futures remain down year-to-date on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).

China growth resulted in a GDP 6.9% for 2017 compared to 6.7% for 2016. The GDP projection for 2018 is 6.5%, down but still fairly robust. Encouragingly, the Q1 result is a better-than-expected 6.8% although industrial production fell to 6.0%. Something to continue to watch.

Recent U.S. import tariff threats on steel, aluminum and other Chinese exports cloud the outlook for metals. Sanctions on Russian aluminum producer Rusal have spiked aluminum prices to 7-year highs (whose output represents 6% of global supply).

Copper stored in LME and Nymex warehouses are now about 0.60 million tonnes - net copper inventories are up compared to March.

LME inventories creeping north again: 

It is instructive to keep our eyes on the Comex inventories which are behind the LME and but moving up (359,275 versus 238,217 tonnes):

My Input to Kitco News 

Here's how I saw the weekly price action as told to the Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey:

My vote is down. Target gold price $1,320 per ounce. Target silver price $16.9 per ounce.

A rough week for gold although its U.S. dollar price has fallen less than 1% for the week. It is what's on the horizon that is troubling. This week saw an uptick in inflation expectations* outpaced by a jump in the 10-year yield above the key 2.9%-level. This results in a move up in real rates**, a bearish indication for the lustrous metal. 

The U.S. dollar index (.DXY) also reversed its downtrend Monday and has been on the rise since, a second headwind for gold.

In the commodity space oil and aluminum touched new multi-year highs due to inventory concerns for the former and the tariff bite on major Russian supplier Rusal for the latter. Gold fared poorly relative to both and the broader Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM).

Against major currencies, gold fell behind both the euro and the Japanese yen. On all fronts gold faces challenges ahead baring a major political/geo-political shock. I think it likely the yellow metal will fall to $1,320 per ounce next week and perhaps lower to $1,309 support (March low). Silver has shown some recent gusto but will follow gold lower to $16.9 per ounce. [see Weekly Summary and charts below]

* 10-year U.S. Treasury break-even rate 2.16%

** 10-year real rate 0.76%

Additional Note:

The fate of the Chinese yuan remains a key tell for gold and copper - a material drop in valuation could boost gold and depress copper prices. There has been talk from China that currency devaluation may be used as a tool in a U.S./China trade war, just talk for now.

The yuan stabilized below 7 USD/CNY for 2017 and has been trending steadily stronger in the new year. The yuan is slightly weaker than last week at 6.2930 USD/CNY and above the March 26th low (i.e. even stronger level) of 6.2342. A low 1-month yuan volatility of 0.27% is in the ballpark of major currency levels - a healthy sign for the Chinese currency (1-month volatilities of euro, yen and gold*).

* the euro & yen 1-month volatilites are  0.44% & 0.77% respectively; Comex gold 1-month volatility is 0.73%.

Weekly Summary  for April 20, 2018 AM 

(click on table for larger size)

Yearly Summary for 2017

(click on table for larger size)

Comex gold gained nearly 14% for the year but was outpaced by Comex copper that enjoyed a 32% uptick in price. Comex silver lagged both for a  respectable 7.2% gain. Overall, gold gained 12% on the broader Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOMTR:IND) which includes everything from crude oil to things that oink. In terms of major currencies, gold in terms of yen advanced almost 10% but slipped 0.4% relative to the strengthening euro.

Although gold slipped 5% in value relative to the S&P 500 it was not a bad year at all for the yellow metal!

Gold Price Outlook for 2018:

My revised gold range for 2017 was $1,250 to $1,400. We closed 2017 comfortably above $1,300 at $1,309.3 (February contract).

Let's assume 2018, like 2017, is a mix of buoyant market expectations and rising rates with occasional geopolitical, political and economic shocks. Gold will feel the headwinds of the former and enjoy price spikes in times of market stress. I believe this will secure a price floor in the $1,200 to $1,250 range with highs challenging but not exceeding $1,380 per ounce.

2018 will prove a less bullish period for gold than last year unless interest rates return to 2017 levels and copper prices fall - a less likely scenario given the recent rise of the 10-year Treasury together with U.S. growth and synchronous global growth expectations. Inflation will be another key factor to monitor, it has been on the rise (see chart above in discussion). Geo-political tensions in the Middle-East have also re-surfaced.

The difference between interest rates and inflation expectations drive gold price; if the former leads the latter, there could be stiff headwinds for the lustrous metal. A trade war that results in slower growth and higher inflation could be potentially very bullish for gold.

Here's a good beer bet for 2018: Gold will fall below $1,220 before rising above $1,380. We ended 2017 n the middle of that range with prices just above $1,300 - a fair starting point. 

Which side of this bet you take depends on whether you have a half-empty or half-full view on interest rate direction and economic prospects, both global and domestic.

Important charts to watch remain the gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP (see "Chart to Watch" below) and gold in terms of major currencies euro and Japanese yen (directly below). An explanation of the charts below is given in my latest Kitco column:

The Gartman Gold Trade Revisited (Kitco News, 2/14/2018)

Click on the image for a larger size:

Gold in euro & yen terms with good margin above 2013 lows

Note upside trend of higher lows for gold in U.S. dollars for 2018 (dotted blue line).

Gold euro/yen spread widens again in 2018

Note for currency buffs: Value parity in the above chart occurs when the EUR/JPY cross rate is 139.24; something to watch for - presently 132.25 yen per euro as the gold euro/yen spread begins to rise again (above chart).

Chart to Watch

Here's a chart to watch for 2018. Click on the image for a larger size:

Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio

An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016. It bottomed again December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly bottomed again in July, 2017 and more recently December, 12, 2017 (0.4661). Currently this AM the AUSP is 0.4983, bearishly dipping below the key 0.5-level.

Cheers,

Colonel Possum & Mariana

Photos by Mariana Titus if not otherwise noted.