Waterfall, Lamoille Canyon, Ruby Mountains
Friday, January 19, 2018 AM
Morning Miners,
Gold behaved as a currency this week with low volatility - supported by a weakened U.S. dollar but challenged by rising interest rates. February Comex gold this morning is roughly where it closed last Friday trading at $1,333.9 per ounce. However, inflation expectations are up with rising commodity prices. How all these competing forces turn gold price is explored in my input to the Kitco Weekly Gold Survey below.
In the near term, I believe gold prices will find comfort above the $1,300-level but struggle to break last September's high of $1,366 per ounce (3/18 contract). Floundering crypto-currencies also continue to give gold a boost.
$1,350 per ounce gold is in the cards in the near term.
That ain't all bad, pardner.
The 10-year Treasury benchmark yield is now above 2.6%. The important link between the 10-year and gold and copper prices is explained in my latest Kitco column:
The Gundlach Indicator Restored - Gold, Copper and Interest Rates (December 27, 2017, Kitco News)
Scorecard
Here's our scorecard on where we stood for the last-half of 2017:
Intraday highs on the Comex futures exchange:
Gold $1,362.4 per ounce September 8, 2017 (December 2018 contract)
Gold $1,365.8 per ounce September 8, 2017 (February 2018 contract)
Silver $18.290 per ounce September 8, 2017 (December 2018 contract)
Silver $18.360 per ounce September 8, 2017 (March 2018 contract)
Copper $3.3220 per pound ($7,186 per tonne) December 28, 2017 (March 2018 contract)
Comex copper is presently trading at $3.1980 per pound, 3.7% below December's high. Improving global growth has kept the red metal above the key $3 per pound level with an added boost from passage of Tax Reform and expectations for U.S. infrastructure spending. China growth prospects appear to be firming up with a better-than-expected Q4 GDP of 6.8%. This results in a GDP 6.9% for 2017 compared to 6.7% for 2016. LME inventories are picking back up as we start a new year (note lower-end scale change from last week):
It is instructive to keep our eyes on the Comex inventories which still exceed the LME after moving higher in late-2017 (213,072 versus 204,675 tonnes)
Good news: Moly prices may be picking up soon (see below)!
My Input to Kitco News
Here's how I saw the weekly price action as told to the Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey:
My vote is down. Target gold price $1,325 per ounce. Target Silver price $16.9 per ounce.
There are several gold price drivers this week; some developing and one transient. The 10-year U.S Treasury is now above 2.6%. As an interest rate benchmark it suggests a steady trajectory up for U.S. rates and a headwind for the yellow metal. However, continued U.S. dollar weakness has supported gold above the 1,330-level. Some of this weakness is caused by transient uncertainty of a government shutdown today.
I believe a late compromise will occur and the U.S. dollar will rebound some next week. This will likely bring gold back to $1,325 per ounce. Silver will follow the pullback to $16.9 per ounce.
A longer term effect is a strengthening China as indicated by a better-than-expected fourth quarter GDP and yuan currency flexing to a 52-week low relative to the U.S. dollar (USD/CNY). This should support higher copper prices and compress the gold-to-copper ratio - bearish gold but consistent with rising interest rates.
The broader Bloomberg Commodity Index has been steadily trending up suggesting commodity inflation. This may ultimately be bullish gold as it eventually manifests in higher product prices. Greater inflation is further supported by a rising U.S. 10-year break-even rate. The dual between higher nominal rates and rising inflation will probably support gold price but keep it below September's high, $1,366 (Comex).
On a weekly basis, gold posted gains relative to copper and the broader Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) and major currencies euro and Japanese yen. Gold is still slipping in value, albeit not dramatically, to surging equities. Relative to the S&P 500, gold retreated only 0.8%.
[see Summary Chart & last graph below, Chart to Watch].
Additional Note:
The fate of the Chinese yuan remains a key tell for gold and copper - a material drop in valuation could boost gold and depress copper prices. The yuan stabilized below 7 USD/CNY for 2017 and has been steadily stronger in the new year. The yuan is stronger than last week at 6.3989 USD/CNY and plumbed a new low today (i.e. even stronger level) of 6.3875. A 1-month yuan volatility of 0.80% is in the ballpark of major currency levels - a healthy sign for the Chinese currency (1-month volatilities of euro, yen and gold*).
* the euro & yen 1-month volatilites are 1.18% & 0.92% respectively; Comex gold 1-month volatility is a slightly elevated 1.68%.
Molybdenum Outlook
General Moly (GMO) sees a brighter future for Molybdenum oxide prices. Here are their thoughts form a recent press release:
Molybdenum was one of the best performing metals in price appreciation in 2017, according to the CPM Group, a leading commodities research and consulting firm in New York. The molybdenum spot price strengthened during 2017, supported by increased specialty steel output, driven by the global recovery in oil and gas drilling. During 2017, molybdenum spot price climbed to the $8 - $9 per pound range during August through November, before hitting double digits early this year.
Molybdenum Demand Rising from Oil & Gas End Use
Commenting on the molybdenum outlook for 2018, General Moly Chief Executive Officer Bruce D. Hansen said, "We are excited by the robust performance in the molybdenum (moly) spot price in the new year. Moly is the premier alloy to toughen steel and make it corrosion resistant, which is critically important in all aspects of drilling, production, refining, storage and transportation in the oil and gas industry. However, moly prices remain volatile, and with the continued recovery of the petroleum industry, we anticipate the potential for generally higher prices going forward in 2018."
In December 2017, the Baker Hughes worldwide drill rig count increased 18% to 2,089 rigs from year ago levels and jumped 49% from the low point seen in mid-2016. The West Texas Intermediate oil price has risen 69% from $38.10 per barrel at year end 2016 to $64.30 on January 15, 2017, while the NYMEX natural gas price has risen 58% from $2.03 per MMBtu to $3.20 over the same period.
In addition, steel consumption especially for stainless and high strength steels is expected to be driven by global economic expansion. The World Bank projects global economic growth at a solid 3.1% for 2018 after a better than expected 2017 performance. China uses approximately a third of global molybdenum and produces more than one-third of global molybdenum supply. China's continued strong steel fabrication demand led to rising imports of molybdenum concentrate in late 2017, according to CPM.
Molybdenum Supply
CPM stated that nearly 63% of molybdenum supply is derived as a by-product mostly from copper miners while the remainder of molybdenum is sourced from primary producers, mostly in China. While total molybdenum mine supply (by-product and primary) increased to 561 million pounds in 2017 from 510 million pounds in 2016, according to CPM, molybdenum by-product production is expected to soften in 2018, notably from Chile.
Anticipating tightening supply of molybdenum in 2018, Catherine Virga, Director of the CPM Group, commented "We believe that the major copper producers are already maximizing their molybdenum by-product production and that increases in by-product molybdenum output in 2018 will be limited. Furthermore, strict environmental controls including inspections and production curtailments are expected to continue in China, hampering growth and putting upward pressure on production costs."
Weekly Summary for January 19, 2018 AM
Molybdenum Outlook
General Moly (GMO) sees a brighter future for Molybdenum oxide prices. Here are their thoughts form a recent press release:
Molybdenum was one of the best performing metals in price appreciation in 2017, according to the CPM Group, a leading commodities research and consulting firm in New York. The molybdenum spot price strengthened during 2017, supported by increased specialty steel output, driven by the global recovery in oil and gas drilling. During 2017, molybdenum spot price climbed to the $8 - $9 per pound range during August through November, before hitting double digits early this year.
Molybdenum Demand Rising from Oil & Gas End Use
Commenting on the molybdenum outlook for 2018, General Moly Chief Executive Officer Bruce D. Hansen said, "We are excited by the robust performance in the molybdenum (moly) spot price in the new year. Moly is the premier alloy to toughen steel and make it corrosion resistant, which is critically important in all aspects of drilling, production, refining, storage and transportation in the oil and gas industry. However, moly prices remain volatile, and with the continued recovery of the petroleum industry, we anticipate the potential for generally higher prices going forward in 2018."
In December 2017, the Baker Hughes worldwide drill rig count increased 18% to 2,089 rigs from year ago levels and jumped 49% from the low point seen in mid-2016. The West Texas Intermediate oil price has risen 69% from $38.10 per barrel at year end 2016 to $64.30 on January 15, 2017, while the NYMEX natural gas price has risen 58% from $2.03 per MMBtu to $3.20 over the same period.
In addition, steel consumption especially for stainless and high strength steels is expected to be driven by global economic expansion. The World Bank projects global economic growth at a solid 3.1% for 2018 after a better than expected 2017 performance. China uses approximately a third of global molybdenum and produces more than one-third of global molybdenum supply. China's continued strong steel fabrication demand led to rising imports of molybdenum concentrate in late 2017, according to CPM.
Molybdenum Supply
CPM stated that nearly 63% of molybdenum supply is derived as a by-product mostly from copper miners while the remainder of molybdenum is sourced from primary producers, mostly in China. While total molybdenum mine supply (by-product and primary) increased to 561 million pounds in 2017 from 510 million pounds in 2016, according to CPM, molybdenum by-product production is expected to soften in 2018, notably from Chile.
Anticipating tightening supply of molybdenum in 2018, Catherine Virga, Director of the CPM Group, commented "We believe that the major copper producers are already maximizing their molybdenum by-product production and that increases in by-product molybdenum output in 2018 will be limited. Furthermore, strict environmental controls including inspections and production curtailments are expected to continue in China, hampering growth and putting upward pressure on production costs."
Weekly Summary for January 19, 2018 AM
(click on table for larger size)
Yearly Summary for 2017
(click on table for larger size)
Comex gold gained nearly 14% for the year but was outpaced by Comex copper that enjoyed a 32% uptick in price. Comex silver lagged both for a respectable 7.2% gain. Overall, gold gained 12% on the broader Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOMTR:IND) which includes everything from crude oil to things that oink. In terms of major currencies, gold in terms of yen advanced almost 10% but slipped 0.4% relative to the strengthening euro.
Although gold slipped 5% in value relative to the S&P 500 it was not a bad year at all for the yellow metal!
Gold Price Outlook for 2018:
My revised gold range for 2017 was $1,250 to $1,400. We closed 2017 comfortably above $1,300 at $1,309.3 (February contract).
Let's assume 2018, like 2017, is a mix of buoyant market expectations and rising rates with occasional geopolitical, political and economic shocks. Gold will feel the headwinds of the former and enjoy price spikes in times of market stress. I believe this will secure a price floor in the $1,200 to $1,250 range with highs challenging but not exceeding the September Comex high of $1,366 per ounce.
2018 will prove a less bullish period for gold than this year unless interest rates are contained near present levels and copper prices fall - a less likely scenario given U.S. growth and synchronous global growth expectations. Inflation will be another key factor to monitor, there are growing signs it is on the rise.
Here's a good beer bet for 2018: Gold will fall below $1,220 before rising above $1,380. We ended\ 2017 n the middle of that range with prices just above $1,300 - a fair starting point.
Which side of this bet you take depends on whether you have a half-empty or half-full view on interest rate direction and economic prospects, both global and domestic.
Two important charts to watch remain the gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP (see "Chart to Watch" below) and gold in terms of major currencies euro and Japanese yen (directly below).
Click on the image for a larger size:
Gold in euro & yen terms with good margin above 2013 lows
Note for currency buffs: Value parity in the above chart occurs when the EUR/JPY cross rate is 139.24; something to watch for - presently 135.47 yen per euro, trending higher since late-October 2017.
Here's a chart to watch for 2018. Click on the image for a larger size:
Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio
An important gold ratio is gold-to-S&P500 or AUSP. The ratio bottomed in early-December of 2015 and reversed to a bullish trend, peaking February 11, 2016. It bottomed again December 20, 2016 (0.4973) trended higher but then bearishly bottomed again in July, 2017 and more recently December, 12, 2017 (0.4661). Currently this AM the AUSP is 0.4755 - still bearishly below the key 0.5-level but sustaining margin from the mid-December low.
Cheers,
Colonel Possum & Mariana
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